Let's talk about cars
Jul 10th 2013, 6:33 pm
#174
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2001
Location: Dixie, ex UK
Posts: 52,446
Re: Let's talk about cars
Jul 10th 2013, 7:17 pm
#175
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2006
Location: Nova Scotia Canada
Posts: 27,078
Re: Let's talk about cars
The Wikipedia article on hybrid sales, which unfortunately hasn't been updated with 2012 full year data, or any data for 2013, shows that aggregate annual hybrid sales peaked in 2007, and have declined EVERY year since then. Until hybrid technology is a zero cost option, as it is on Ford's Lincoln brand cars, take-up is likely to remain low. Even if it is "free" it is still a bunch of relatively new technology just waiting to fail and lead to expensive repair bills, not least for failed/ degraded batteries. ... I heard that Toyota was buying back older Prius models and crushing them (or perhaps replacing the batteries before selling them as used cars?) to minimize the risk of "prematurely failing batteries" becoming a big story.
Hybrid sales Jan through May YTD. 2012 2013 Increase
________________
Ford 7638 38461 +403.55%
GM 8093 7829 - 3.26%
Honda 9146 7544 - 17.52%
Mitsubishi 300 843 + 181%
Nissan 2613 7614 + 191.39%
Toyota 143,337 145,843 + 1.75%
VW 0 1,791
Overall combined hybrid sales are up YTD +22.5%
Not painting a picture here of any sales crisis for hybrids. The only manufacturers whose sales were down were Honda and GM. Well, Porsche too but i did not include them because of so few cars and who wants a hybrid Porsche anyway. Also keep in mind that January, February and March are slow months in the auto business overall. Sales go up significantly beginning in April.
Jul 10th 2013, 7:18 pm
#176
Bloody Yank
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: USA! USA!
Posts: 4,186
Re: Let's talk about cars
What the automakers don't know how to do is to make an affordable family electric car that can travel a reasonable distance and that can be recharged in five minutes. And Tesla can't do that, either.
The propulsion system is easy. The power source is hard. Automakers are primarily engineers, not scientists, so they're largely not in much of a position to radically innovate the chemical processes that store the power. The best that they can do is build management systems that can attempt to cope with the deficiencies.
The irony for Tesla is that a notable breakthrough in battery technology or a substitute for batteries, such as supercapacitors, would probably torpedo the business. Because if it becomes possible to build the 400 mile affordable, reliable family EV with a 5-minute recharge time, then everyone is going to start building them. It's to Tesla's benefit that batteries have the disadvantages that they do, as it scares off those who know how to make cars for a living.
There are numerous examples of niche cars that had a bunch of pre-sales hype, a lot of buzz and a year of OK sales before fizzling out. Your enthusiasm is a wee bit premature. Tesla deserves credit for doing well with what it has, but that doesn't mean that it has reinvented the electric car. Not by a long shot.
Jul 10th 2013, 7:28 pm
#177
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2006
Location: Nova Scotia Canada
Posts: 27,078
Re: Let's talk about cars
Seriously????? Delorean? If not for his cocaine issues, might well have succeeded with that at some point, not that the car was worth a shit except for the unique design.
Saturn?? Saturn did reasonably well for some time, considering it was basically an experiment by GM and only finally fell victim to GM's neglect of the franchise and product line. No effort was made to update the vehicles, expand the lineup or improve anything whatsoever, until about the year before it had to be axed in the GM restructuring. Could not have it taking sales away from regular GM products.
Daewoo?????????? Little more than gutless death traps. Crap in and crap out. Of course GM bought them and re-badged some real shit with the Chevy and Pontiac nameplates. That did a lot for their credibility, not.
Fisker I know f-all about.
None of these, however, are in the same category as Tesla.
Saturn?? Saturn did reasonably well for some time, considering it was basically an experiment by GM and only finally fell victim to GM's neglect of the franchise and product line. No effort was made to update the vehicles, expand the lineup or improve anything whatsoever, until about the year before it had to be axed in the GM restructuring. Could not have it taking sales away from regular GM products.
Daewoo?????????? Little more than gutless death traps. Crap in and crap out. Of course GM bought them and re-badged some real shit with the Chevy and Pontiac nameplates. That did a lot for their credibility, not.
Fisker I know f-all about.
None of these, however, are in the same category as Tesla.
Jul 10th 2013, 7:32 pm
#178
Rootbeeraholic
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Houston, Tx
Posts: 2,280
Jul 10th 2013, 7:32 pm
#179
Bloody Yank
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: USA! USA!
Posts: 4,186
Re: Let's talk about cars
Re: US hybrid sales, they're up year-to-date by about 18%, versus the overall market growing by about 8%. That would indicate an increase in market share:
http://www.hybridcars.com/june-2013-dashboard/
Using 2007 as a starting point doesn't make much sense, since car sales were falling off a cliff due to the recession. US car sales peaked in 2005 at 16.9 million units, and fell to 10.4 million during 2009. The entire market was getting crushed.
http://www.hybridcars.com/june-2013-dashboard/
Using 2007 as a starting point doesn't make much sense, since car sales were falling off a cliff due to the recession. US car sales peaked in 2005 at 16.9 million units, and fell to 10.4 million during 2009. The entire market was getting crushed.
Jul 10th 2013, 7:35 pm
#180
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Location: Nova Scotia Canada
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