British Expats - Impeachment

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- - Impeachment (https://britishexpats.com/forum/trailer-park-96/impeachment-928114/)

Another insight that undercuts Trump's conspiracy theory regarding Biden and Ukraine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49856788

Kurt Volker resigns.

I'm not convinced that everybody on this thread understands the impeachment process. The easiest way to not be impeached? Stop breaking the law and doing sketchy shit. I don't know of anybody, of any political persuasion, that is happy or excited about this situation. The Democrats have been dragged kicking and screaming into the impeachment process and it is Trump that has dragged them there.

For those who insist on blaming the New York Times and Hillary, none of those entities are mentioned in the complaint. Falling for Trump's conspiracy theories, every single time, is not the same thing as informing yourself.

Sometimes listening is easier than reading. Trump and Rudy have already pretty much corroborated all of this on national TV:

https://www.penguinrandomhouseaudio....ers-complaint/

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leslie (Post 12741364)

As my mum always says - if you haven't done anything wrong, you don't have anything to worry about. Sometimes mums just cut through all the crap and get to the real stuff.

Quote:

Originally Posted by spouse of scouse (Post 12741371)

As my mum always says - if you haven't done anything wrong, you don't have anything to worry about. Sometimes mums just cut through all the crap and get to the real stuff.

Also - if you can't say anything nice then don't say anything at all.
Obviously Trump's mum was lacking in good mum advice!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sugarmooma (Post 12741429)

Also - if you can't say anything nice then don't say anything at all.
Obviously Trump's mum was lacking in good mum advice!

Mine used to say it takes all kinds to make a world. I disagree; we just happen to have all kinds.

Watching CNN this morning and they had a poll among their audience, only 23% expected Trump to be impeached.

The Biden situation was also discussed, seems there has been a lot of pressure on the MSM to drop the Hunter Biden aspect, and obviously this was a friendly audience but even here the conclusion was that it could not be totally ignored.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 12741433)

It only takes a simple majority in the House of Representatives to impeach a President. Maybe they misunderstood the question, or did they think they would not get to a vote on articles of impeachment?

Quote:

Originally Posted by durham_lad (Post 12741437)

It only takes a simple majority in the House of Representatives to impeach a President. Maybe they misunderstood the question?

That is the first part of the process.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 12741438)

That is the first part of the process.

I donâ€™t think so.

The House only decides on impeachment. The Senate then decides whether to remove the President on 2/3rds majority.

Am I reading this wrong.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impe..._United_States

Quote:

Originally Posted by durham_lad (Post 12741441)

No, youâ€™re correct.

Seems to me the probability of impeachment is high, the probability of subsequent conviction and removal from office low.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12741444)

No, youâ€™re correct.

Seems to me the probability of impeachment is high, the probability of subsequent conviction and removal from office low.

So he is tarnished with the label impeached, but not necessarily removed. Better than continuing to turn a blind eye I suppose.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12741446)

So he is tarnished with the label impeached, but not necessarily removed. Better than continuing to turn a blind eye I suppose.

Exactly.

Bill Clinton will forever be recorded as an impeached President who was acquitted by the Senate and allowed to finish his term of office.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12741444)

No, youâ€™re correct.

Seems to me the probability of impeachment is high, the probability of subsequent conviction and removal from office low.

Exactly. The process isn't meant to guarantee removal. It's meant to guarantee accountability and scrutiny. I find it odd when people LOSE THEIR MINDS over the thought of a government institution being scrutinized. I choose to tell myself they don't understand what is happening. Otherwise, it seems as if they're a member of some kind of paranoid brainwashing cult.

I'll preface this with my beliefs here: Trump's dodgy transcript reads like a loan shark's shakedown to me, but I believe it's not clear at all that he actually broke laws. Whether or not this all counts as "high crimes and misdemeanors" is up for debate. We'll see.

Three things here:
1. What has been announced is an impeachment "inquiry", it is now being referred on to six different Congressional sub-committees for investigation... a messy process. This does allow Pelosi the ability to look like she's "doing something" without actually forcing Democrats to stand up and be counted with a formal vote quite yet. We'll see what happens when Representatives actually have to sign on the doted line after the investigation completes, especially those from swing districts.
2. This is entirely symbolic. Even if the House impeaches Trump (which is hardly a given), there is zero chance of Trump actually being removed from office. Even if Trump is impeached by the House, ol' Mitch McConnell is going to stop the process in its tracks. Also, even if the House impeaches Trump, he can still run next year... with an extremely energized fanbase.
3. Impeachment proceedings have only succeeded twice in American history (three times if you count Nixon's resignation). In both cases, there was at least some bi-partisan support for the proceedings. Such is (obviously) not the case right now. House Democrats are going to have to vote ~93%+ (they need 218 out of 235 votes, I think) in support of impeachment for this to work. This is, again, hardly certain.

I feel this is a high risk political move by the Democrats. Everything hinges on what comes out of the investigation and everything subsequent has to go off like clockwork with essentially zero room for intra-party dissent. The Democrats also don't have a lot of time, this really needs to be resolved by the end of the year. Also, post Mueller, the Democrats don't exactly have a sterling track record of success here. They are in a bit of a "boy who cried wolf" situation with many Americans.

Overall, I feel politics as Kabuki theater continues to reign in our nation's capital. It's possible we have more pressing issues. Maybe we should talk more about climate change, the increasing likelihood of an economic collapse in China and prospects for a recession in the medium term. Maybe it's just me.