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The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Old Nov 25th 2018, 9:41 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

I certainly appreciate the thoughtful opinions to my original post. Thank you
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Old Nov 25th 2018, 9:50 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by CoolHandFluke View Post
I dabble with the stock market and the forex market is very similar, its all hype and manipulation.

my guess would be a consolidation period come march 2019 whilst brexit starts.. and i would predict a sharp rise the following year should the statistics come good, and there is no reason why they shouldnt
..the uk is a solid historical financial hub, and other countries will always do business here

me personally if i get into the usa will not be selling up for at least 2 Years until the pound is back to around 1.5 to 1...
thank you very much for your reply and your opinion.
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Old Nov 26th 2018, 3:08 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by lansbury View Post
It will go up

It will go down

It will stay the same.

It could possible do this on any given day, will likely do so in any given week, and definitely do so in any given month.
"*Fugayzi*, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. it doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not f****** real."
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Old Nov 28th 2018, 7:23 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Well the Governor of the BoE is doing his best to talk it down.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...dered-theresa/
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Old Dec 30th 2018, 11:20 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

While doing my taxes, it appears this year's average rate, 1.335141 is almost back up to the 2016 average rate of 1.355673. Way up from last year's rate of 1.288611. I was hoping it was lower
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Old Dec 31st 2018, 3:39 am
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by mrken30 View Post
While doing my taxes, it appears this year's average rate, 1.335141 is almost back up to the 2016 average rate of 1.355673. Way up from last year's rate of 1.288611. I was hoping it was lower
And at 1.269 now. There was a recovery during the year, but then this fall's shenanigans have led to it declining to almost a post-referendum low.
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Old Dec 31st 2018, 6:30 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by mrken30 View Post
While doing my taxes, it appears this year's average rate, 1.335141 is almost back up to the 2016 average rate of 1.355673. Way up from last year's rate of 1.288611. I was hoping it was lower
What average rate are you looking at. The IRS rate was way below those figures and they haven't published the 2018 rate yet. The IRS rate for 2017 was $1.2376, and for 2016 $1.2987.
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Old Jan 4th 2019, 3:56 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by lansbury View Post
What average rate are you looking at. The IRS rate was way below those figures and they haven't published the 2018 rate yet. The IRS rate for 2017 was $1.2376, and for 2016 $1.2987.
Maybe he is looking at the HMRC average rates even though this is the USA forum?

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...and-vat-yearly


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Old Jan 4th 2019, 9:30 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by durham_lad View Post

Maybe he is looking at the HMRC average rates even though this is the USA forum?

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...and-vat-yearly


Bloody hell, HMRC must use the spot rate. At least IRS are more generous and appear to use a rate nearer to what could be obtained from a bank.
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Old Jan 4th 2019, 9:38 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by lansbury View Post
Bloody hell, HMRC must use the spot rate. At least IRS are more generous and appear to use a rate nearer to what could be obtained from a bank.
I agree, and always use the IRS rate myself. Just trying to guess at where Mrken is getting his rates.
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Old Jan 17th 2019, 11:37 am
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Just when I thought the pound would drop, because of all the Brexit uncertainty, it is rising! What do I know! $1.29 as I write. If it gets to $1.30 I will be tempted to move some GBP across the pond.
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Old Jan 17th 2019, 4:35 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by MidAtlantic View Post
Just when I thought the pound would drop, because of all the Brexit uncertainty, it is rising! What do I know! $1.29 as I write. If it gets to $1.30 I will be tempted to move some GBP across the pond.
If I have learnt one thing in life so far, it is that trying to predict exchange rates even a few hours ahead is an exercise in futility - and if the big banks can't make money trading FX, with all their dealers, strategists and economists then there is no hope for the outsider. …. If you look at historic data, and had a reliable way of knowing what any currency-pair exchange rate would be one week ahead, you could make £/$billions year in and year out, and that clearly isn't happening, either for the banks, or anyone else - and the fact that occasionally it is big news that someone made a fortune predicting a movement in one time frame only reinforces how rare it is.

That said, I predict that the £ will strengthen no matter what sort of Brexit occurs, including a no deal Brexit, or no Brexit - and that deferring to another referendum will only extend the pound's weakness (assuming a referendum would take longer than 3/29/19).

One snippet of incidental information, that shows how volatile the FX markets actually are - the vast majority of FX transactions are reversed the same day, and a relatively small one-way movement of cash can cause a surprisingly large movement in the exchange rate. ….. An employer I had in the UK before I moved was holding $600million* in New York, and needed to move it to London and hold it in GBP. My employer's bank advised that if that much was moved in one day it would move the USD/GBP exchange rate by about 0.75c against them! So if that move occurred during the day, as they made exchange transactions, and therefore experienced about half that change on average, it would have cost them over $2million or almost £1.5million!

* That might sound like a lot, but is only enough for a couple of jet airliners, or just a little more than for an A380, isn't enough for an office tower, or would be approximately the value of the contents of 25,000 freight containers (assuming $1,000/ pallet in a standard 10m/40ft container, which is very conservative - electronics, tools, or machinery would be a lot more than this, even foods would be more), and there are now container ships that carry 20,000 containers, so in the context of global trade, $600million isn't a large amount at all.

Last edited by Pulaski; Jan 17th 2019 at 6:21 pm.
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Old Jan 17th 2019, 5:05 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by MidAtlantic View Post
Just when I thought the pound would drop, because of all the Brexit uncertainty, it is rising! What do I know! $1.29 as I write. If it gets to $1.30 I will be tempted to move some GBP across the pond.
I thought exactly the same and was surprised when it went up. As Pulaski says predicting exchange rate movement is impossible to win at.
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Old Jan 17th 2019, 5:31 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

An ex-colleague of mine, when made redundant, decided to use his, quite substantial, payoff and become an FX trader.
Now broke and divorced.
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Old Jan 17th 2019, 7:36 pm
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Default Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?

Originally Posted by Hotscot View Post
An ex-colleague of mine, when made redundant, decided to use his, quite substantial, payoff and become an FX trader.
Now broke and divorced.
I know a guy who was trading and was doing quite well making about 15% a month. Until the fateful day he lost £1.2 million in a day and bankrupted himself and some others as well.
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