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Seahorse1234 Sep 30th 2018 11:52 am
The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
This hasn't been something I have looked into until recently. My limited finding show little change for the future 12 months. If any one has more insight into this, I would love to hear from you. Thanks.

dave2702 Oct 1st 2018 3:22 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
I think we're in for an "interesting" 6 months due to Brexit.

If the UK looks like Remaining or taking a very Soft Brexit then I'd think the £ is going to rise . But if a Hard Brexit looks likely then I wouldn't be surprised for it to hit $1.2 or even lower

lansbury Oct 1st 2018 4:55 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
It will go up

It will go down

It will stay the same.

It could possible do this on any given day, will likely do so in any given week, and definitely do so in any given month.

Lord PercyPercy Oct 1st 2018 5:21 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by dave2702 (Post 12571152)
I think we're in for an "interesting" 6 months due to Brexit.

If the UK looks like Remaining or taking a very Soft Brexit then I'd think the £ is going to rise . But if a Hard Brexit looks likely then I wouldn't be surprised for it to hit $1.2 or even lower
Markets hate uncertainty and I think uncertainty is what we're in for.

tom169 Oct 2nd 2018 11:53 am
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Doesn't get much riskier than FOREX

BritInParis Oct 2nd 2018 6:26 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by lansbury (Post 12571222)
It will go up

It will go down

It will stay the same.

It could possible do this on any given day, will likely do so in any given week, and definitely do so in any given month.
Originally Posted by Lord PercyPercy (Post 12571230)
Markets hate uncertainty and I think uncertainty is what we're in for.
Originally Posted by tom169 (Post 12571565)
Doesn't get much riskier than FOREX
:goodpost:

robin1234 Oct 3rd 2018 12:35 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
when I was a lad, we called sixpence a tanner, a shilling a bob etc. Five shillings was referred to a a dollar.

Rete Oct 3rd 2018 5:43 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Anyone with a crystal ball on the exchange for the Canadian vs US dollar? It has been in a nose dive for several years now (well under 1:1).

mrken30 Oct 3rd 2018 8:37 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
For past 2 years it has been a fairly steady $1.3 to £1 +/- 10c

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?f...o=USD&view=10Y

Seahorse1234 Oct 4th 2018 12:29 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Thank you for the replies. And the general consensus. I was able to have a chat with a school friend who still lives in England , but owns a home in Florida so has been up on exchange rates for many years. So it seems the best thing to do is just hold tight for a least the next year.

nearpost1 Oct 26th 2018 9:47 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by Seahorse1234 (Post 12572756)
Thank you for the replies. And the general consensus. I was able to have a chat with a school friend who still lives in England , but owns a home in Florida so has been up on exchange rates for many years. So it seems the best thing to do is just hold tight for a least the next year.
I’m waiting till we get through next March will then reevaluate. Hoping for a second referendum, but instead we’ll likely wind up with kicking the can down the road for a decade. As I understand it if we do opt for a prolonged extension or an acceptance of the backstop (same thing), we’ll be as we were before 2016 minus a voice in eu policy.


CoolHandFluke Nov 24th 2018 1:25 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
I dabble with the stock market and the forex market is very similar, its all hype and manipulation.

my guess would be a consolidation period come march 2019 whilst brexit starts.. and i would predict a sharp rise the following year should the statistics come good, and there is no reason why they shouldnt
..the uk is a solid historical financial hub, and other countries will always do business here

me personally if i get into the usa will not be selling up for at least 2 Years until the pound is back to around 1.5 to 1...

lansbury Nov 24th 2018 10:07 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by CoolHandFluke (Post 12598611)
I dabble with the stock market and the forex market is very similar,

my guess
Like the rest of us you know f/all then.

vespucci Nov 25th 2018 1:03 am
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
If anyone did know they wouldn't bother to post here, they'd get busy making their billions!

nearpost1 Nov 25th 2018 1:19 am
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Tough crowd in here today. Poster acknowledged they were guessing.

Seahorse1234 Nov 25th 2018 9:41 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
I certainly appreciate the thoughtful opinions to my original post. Thank you

Seahorse1234 Nov 25th 2018 9:50 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by CoolHandFluke (Post 12598611)
I dabble with the stock market and the forex market is very similar, its all hype and manipulation.

my guess would be a consolidation period come march 2019 whilst brexit starts.. and i would predict a sharp rise the following year should the statistics come good, and there is no reason why they shouldnt
..the uk is a solid historical financial hub, and other countries will always do business here

me personally if i get into the usa will not be selling up for at least 2 Years until the pound is back to around 1.5 to 1...
thank you very much for your reply and your opinion.

Harveyspecter Nov 26th 2018 3:08 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by lansbury (Post 12571222)
It will go up

It will go down

It will stay the same.

It could possible do this on any given day, will likely do so in any given week, and definitely do so in any given month.
"*Fugayzi*, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. it doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not f****** real."

lansbury Nov 28th 2018 7:23 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Well the Governor of the BoE is doing his best to talk it down.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...dered-theresa/

mrken30 Dec 30th 2018 11:20 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
While doing my taxes, it appears this year's average rate, 1.335141 is almost back up to the 2016 average rate of 1.355673. Way up from last year's rate of 1.288611. I was hoping it was lower :(

Giantaxe Dec 31st 2018 3:39 am
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by mrken30 (Post 12614380)
While doing my taxes, it appears this year's average rate, 1.335141 is almost back up to the 2016 average rate of 1.355673. Way up from last year's rate of 1.288611. I was hoping it was lower :(
And at 1.269 now. There was a recovery during the year, but then this fall's shenanigans have led to it declining to almost a post-referendum low.

lansbury Dec 31st 2018 6:30 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by mrken30 (Post 12614380)
While doing my taxes, it appears this year's average rate, 1.335141 is almost back up to the 2016 average rate of 1.355673. Way up from last year's rate of 1.288611. I was hoping it was lower :(
What average rate are you looking at. The IRS rate was way below those figures and they haven't published the 2018 rate yet. The IRS rate for 2017 was $1.2376, and for 2016 $1.2987.

durham_lad Jan 4th 2019 3:56 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by lansbury (Post 12614639)
What average rate are you looking at. The IRS rate was way below those figures and they haven't published the 2018 rate yet. The IRS rate for 2017 was $1.2376, and for 2016 $1.2987.
Maybe he is looking at the HMRC average rates even though this is the USA forum?

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...and-vat-yearly

lansbury Jan 4th 2019 9:30 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by durham_lad (Post 12616266)

Maybe he is looking at the HMRC average rates even though this is the USA forum?

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...and-vat-yearly


Bloody hell, HMRC must use the spot rate. At least IRS are more generous and appear to use a rate nearer to what could be obtained from a bank.

durham_lad Jan 4th 2019 9:38 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by lansbury (Post 12616357)
Bloody hell, HMRC must use the spot rate. At least IRS are more generous and appear to use a rate nearer to what could be obtained from a bank.
I agree, and always use the IRS rate myself. Just trying to guess at where Mrken is getting his rates.

MidAtlantic Jan 17th 2019 11:37 am
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Just when I thought the pound would drop, because of all the Brexit uncertainty, it is rising! What do I know! $1.29 as I write. If it gets to $1.30 I will be tempted to move some GBP across the pond.

Pulaski Jan 17th 2019 4:35 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by MidAtlantic (Post 12623029)
Just when I thought the pound would drop, because of all the Brexit uncertainty, it is rising! What do I know! $1.29 as I write. If it gets to $1.30 I will be tempted to move some GBP across the pond.
If I have learnt one thing in life so far, it is that trying to predict exchange rates even a few hours ahead is an exercise in futility - and if the big banks can't make money trading FX, with all their dealers, strategists and economists then there is no hope for the outsider. …. If you look at historic data, and had a reliable way of knowing what any currency-pair exchange rate would be one week ahead, you could make £/$billions year in and year out, and that clearly isn't happening, either for the banks, or anyone else - and the fact that occasionally it is big news that someone made a fortune predicting a movement in one time frame only reinforces how rare it is.

That said, I predict that the £ will strengthen no matter what sort of Brexit occurs, including a no deal Brexit, or no Brexit - and that deferring to another referendum will only extend the pound's weakness (assuming a referendum would take longer than 3/29/19).

One snippet of incidental information, that shows how volatile the FX markets actually are - the vast majority of FX transactions are reversed the same day, and a relatively small one-way movement of cash can cause a surprisingly large movement in the exchange rate. ….. An employer I had in the UK before I moved was holding $600million* in New York, and needed to move it to London and hold it in GBP. My employer's bank advised that if that much was moved in one day it would move the USD/GBP exchange rate by about 0.75c against them! So if that move occurred during the day, as they made exchange transactions, and therefore experienced about half that change on average, it would have cost them over $2million or almost £1.5million! :blink:

* That might sound like a lot, but is only enough for a couple of jet airliners, or just a little more than for an A380, isn't enough for an office tower, or would be approximately the value of the contents of 25,000 freight containers (assuming $1,000/ pallet in a standard 10m/40ft container, which is very conservative - electronics, tools, or machinery would be a lot more than this, even foods would be more), and there are now container ships that carry 20,000 containers, so in the context of global trade, $600million isn't a large amount at all.

lansbury Jan 17th 2019 5:05 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by MidAtlantic (Post 12623029)
Just when I thought the pound would drop, because of all the Brexit uncertainty, it is rising! What do I know! $1.29 as I write. If it gets to $1.30 I will be tempted to move some GBP across the pond.
I thought exactly the same and was surprised when it went up. As Pulaski says predicting exchange rate movement is impossible to win at.

Hotscot Jan 17th 2019 5:31 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
An ex-colleague of mine, when made redundant, decided to use his, quite substantial, payoff and become an FX trader.
Now broke and divorced.

lansbury Jan 17th 2019 7:36 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by Hotscot (Post 12623210)
An ex-colleague of mine, when made redundant, decided to use his, quite substantial, payoff and become an FX trader.
Now broke and divorced.
I know a guy who was trading and was doing quite well making about 15% a month. Until the fateful day he lost £1.2 million in a day and bankrupted himself and some others as well.

theOAP Jan 18th 2019 1:40 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Sorry for yet another 'derailing' of a thread, but it is an example of how much current markets are in a state of unexpected surprises.

HSBC UK has been miserly in the amounts of interest it pays on savings accounts for the last several years. Its Premiere Savings (instant access) only last year went from 0.10% interest paid annually to 0.20% (where it remains today). Other accounts have paid up to 5.00%, but only allowed for a maximum deposit of £3,000 yearly.

It has offered a Fixed Rate Saver account for several years with a maximum deposit of £1million. In December of 2017, a 3 year term paid 0.70% annually while a 1 year term paid 0.50%. In September of 2018, a 3 year term rose to 0.85% and a 1 year term rose to 0.65%. Four months later (10 Jan. 2019), HSBC UK has raised the interest rates significantly. For a 3 month term, the rate is 0.45%; a 6 mo. term is 0.55%; but a 1 year term is 1.60%; a 2 year term is 1.80%; and a 3 year term is 2.00%. For the UK, these are among some of the top rates for 1 and 3 year fixed term accounts.

Why the sudden and substantial increase? There could be several different answers, but the movement was a surprise, even amongst HSBC staff.

durham_lad Jan 18th 2019 2:52 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by theOAP (Post 12623607)
Sorry for yet another 'derailing' of a thread, but it is an example of how much current markets are in a state of unexpected surprises.

HSBC UK has been miserly in the amounts of interest it pays on savings accounts for the last several years. Its Premiere Savings (instant access) only last year went from 0.10% interest paid annually to 0.20% (where it remains today). Other accounts have paid up to 5.00%, but only allowed for a maximum deposit of £3,000 yearly.

It has offered a Fixed Rate Saver account for several years with a maximum deposit of £1million. In December of 2017, a 3 year term paid 0.70% annually while a 1 year term paid 0.50%. In September of 2018, a 3 year term rose to 0.85% and a 1 year term rose to 0.65%. Four months later (10 Jan. 2019), HSBC UK has raised the interest rates significantly. For a 3 month term, the rate is 0.45%; a 6 mo. term is 0.55%; but a 1 year term is 1.60%; a 2 year term is 1.80%; and a 3 year term is 2.00%. For the UK, these are among some of the top rates for 1 and 3 year fixed term accounts.

Why the sudden and substantial increase? There could be several different answers, but the movement was a surprise, even amongst HSBC staff.
I saw that and didn’t question the “why” but immediately moved a bunch of savings to the 3 year account. For sums below £50k it is also immediately accessible with the loss of 90 days interest. A nice place to park the “emergency fund” for the next 3 years.

robin1234 Jan 18th 2019 7:14 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by theOAP (Post 12623607)
Sorry for yet another 'derailing' of a thread, but it is an example of how much current markets are in a state of unexpected surprises.

HSBC UK has been miserly in the amounts of interest it pays on savings accounts for the last several years. Its Premiere Savings (instant access) only last year went from 0.10% interest paid annually to 0.20% (where it remains today). Other accounts have paid up to 5.00%, but only allowed for a maximum deposit of £3,000 yearly.

It has offered a Fixed Rate Saver account for several years with a maximum deposit of £1million. In December of 2017, a 3 year term paid 0.70% annually while a 1 year term paid 0.50%. In September of 2018, a 3 year term rose to 0.85% and a 1 year term rose to 0.65%. Four months later (10 Jan. 2019), HSBC UK has raised the interest rates significantly. For a 3 month term, the rate is 0.45%; a 6 mo. term is 0.55%; but a 1 year term is 1.60%; a 2 year term is 1.80%; and a 3 year term is 2.00%. For the UK, these are among some of the top rates for 1 and 3 year fixed term accounts.

Why the sudden and substantial increase? There could be several different answers, but the movement was a surprise, even amongst HSBC staff.
Interesting, I just got an email from my UK bank, M&S Bank - which is a branch of, or operated by, HSBC.

"Choose a term to suit you – 1 year: 1.30% AER/Gross,
2 year: 1.50% AER/Gross, or 3 year: 1.70% AER/Gross"

So, equivalent offer, but lower rates!

MidAtlantic Jan 18th 2019 7:20 pm
Re: The future of exchange rate from pounds sterling to US $...any opinions?
 
Originally Posted by robin1234 (Post 12623773)

Interesting, I just got an email from my UK bank, M&S Bank - which is a branch of, or operated by, HSBC.

"Choose a term to suit you – 1 year: 1.30% AER/Gross,
2 year: 1.50% AER/Gross, or 3 year: 1.70% AER/Gross"

So, equivalent offer, but lower rates!


Looks like that means that M&S takes .3%.


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