Fascinating article on compound numbers.
May 27th 2014, 11:59 pm
#1
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Fascinating article on compound numbers.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7853
It is a few years old now but really the points made are just being proven.
Referenced in a Guardian article today: http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...r-number-is-up
It does explain the number of storage unit operations you see, something I never remember seeing as a kid.
It is a few years old now but really the points made are just being proven.
Referenced in a Guardian article today: http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...r-number-is-up
Grantham illustrates his claim by reporting a discussion he had with a group of very highly numerate people interested in economics and the environment.
He asked them how much stuff the Egyptians would have had at the end of their 3,000-year civilization if they started with a total of just one cubic metre of possessions and grew their stash by 4.5% per year – a pretty standard growth target in our culture’s history.
The mathematically minded folk knew it would be a big number but none came near the actual figure. The Egyptians would have needed more than a billion of our solar systems to store their stuff. To be more precise, assuming no loss or recycling, they would have needed 2.5 billion billion solar systems
He asked them how much stuff the Egyptians would have had at the end of their 3,000-year civilization if they started with a total of just one cubic metre of possessions and grew their stash by 4.5% per year – a pretty standard growth target in our culture’s history.
The mathematically minded folk knew it would be a big number but none came near the actual figure. The Egyptians would have needed more than a billion of our solar systems to store their stuff. To be more precise, assuming no loss or recycling, they would have needed 2.5 billion billion solar systems
May 28th 2014, 2:01 am
#2
Joined: Dec 2001
Location: Dixie, ex UK
Posts: 52,445
Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7853
It is a few years old now but really the points made are just being proven.
Referenced in a Guardian article today: http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...r-number-is-up
It does explain the number of storage unit operations you see, something I never remember seeing as a kid.
It is a few years old now but really the points made are just being proven.
Referenced in a Guardian article today: http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...r-number-is-up
It does explain the number of storage unit operations you see, something I never remember seeing as a kid.
May 28th 2014, 2:28 am
#3
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
I was looking at how world population has increased since I was born, quite impressive.
If you look at historical trends there have been some very nasty corrections.
To think that mankind will accept some world good argument seems too unlikely to be worthy of consideration.
If you look at historical trends there have been some very nasty corrections.
To think that mankind will accept some world good argument seems too unlikely to be worthy of consideration.
May 28th 2014, 3:14 am
#4
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7853
It is a few years old now but really the points made are just being proven.
Referenced in a Guardian article today: http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...r-number-is-up
It does explain the number of storage unit operations you see, something I never remember seeing as a kid.
It is a few years old now but really the points made are just being proven.
Referenced in a Guardian article today: http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...r-number-is-up
It does explain the number of storage unit operations you see, something I never remember seeing as a kid.
May 28th 2014, 10:14 am
#5
Joined: Dec 2001
Location: Dixie, ex UK
Posts: 52,445
Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
It might also explain all the stuff in my garage, garden shed and crawlspace. 
May 28th 2014, 2:12 pm
#6
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
The one about world population was scary, in my lifetime it has doubled or so.
If the US population goes up by just 1% a year a child born now will be living in a country with well over 600,000,000 million by their retirement.
What they will be eating, drinking etc is another issue.
If the US population goes up by just 1% a year a child born now will be living in a country with well over 600,000,000 million by their retirement.
What they will be eating, drinking etc is another issue.
May 28th 2014, 3:33 pm
#8
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
Not yet....
May 28th 2014, 6:06 pm
#9
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
The one about world population was scary, in my lifetime it has doubled or so.
If the US population goes up by just 1% a year a child born now will be living in a country with well over 600,000,000 million by their retirement.
What they will be eating, drinking etc is another issue.
If the US population goes up by just 1% a year a child born now will be living in a country with well over 600,000,000 million by their retirement.
What they will be eating, drinking etc is another issue.
May 28th 2014, 6:32 pm
#10
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
the last Dan Brown novel 'Inferno' focuses on that population issue quite well.
May 28th 2014, 6:43 pm
#11
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
'Logan's Run' is the way to go.
May 28th 2014, 6:44 pm
#12
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
Colorado just reduced its anticipated rate of return for Government employee pensions to 7.5%
In crude terms that means somebody starting work now will see a 20 fold increase by the time they reach retirement age.
If you look at Retirement Planning etc they all seem to come up with 4 or 5% numbers, what nobody seems to explain is how all this can happen long term. In a short period bubble maybe.
There is just not enough carrying capability for this to be a practical position for other than a few.
In crude terms that means somebody starting work now will see a 20 fold increase by the time they reach retirement age.
If you look at Retirement Planning etc they all seem to come up with 4 or 5% numbers, what nobody seems to explain is how all this can happen long term. In a short period bubble maybe.
There is just not enough carrying capability for this to be a practical position for other than a few.
May 29th 2014, 1:13 am
#13
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Joined: Jul 2005
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
Odds and ends.
Was fooled by title, this is compounded interest, not compound numbers. I fooled my self at first thinking of complex numbers and the Mandelbrot Set.
I remember explaining to my wife that she should not be thinking of the total number of dollars that we would pay the bank by the end of our mortgage, but think in terms of what it would buy. With 5% inflation, something worth a buck today, would be worth 50 cents in 15 years and only 25 cents in 30 years.
Usually, returns are related to costs, if inflation is low, so, often, is interest.
Was fooled by title, this is compounded interest, not compound numbers. I fooled my self at first thinking of complex numbers and the Mandelbrot Set.
I remember explaining to my wife that she should not be thinking of the total number of dollars that we would pay the bank by the end of our mortgage, but think in terms of what it would buy. With 5% inflation, something worth a buck today, would be worth 50 cents in 15 years and only 25 cents in 30 years.
Usually, returns are related to costs, if inflation is low, so, often, is interest.
May 30th 2014, 6:39 pm
#14
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
Forget Egypt, India's box is at that level of growth, but it seems that it needs to be nearer 8% to meet the extra 10,000,000 looking for work every year.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27638906
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27638906
May 30th 2014, 6:40 pm
#15
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Re: Fascinating article on compound numbers.
Odds and ends.
Was fooled by title, this is compounded interest, not compound numbers. I fooled my self at first thinking of complex numbers and the Mandelbrot Set.
I remember explaining to my wife that she should not be thinking of the total number of dollars that we would pay the bank by the end of our mortgage, but think in terms of what it would buy. With 5% inflation, something worth a buck today, would be worth 50 cents in 15 years and only 25 cents in 30 years.
Usually, returns are related to costs, if inflation is low, so, often, is interest.
Was fooled by title, this is compounded interest, not compound numbers. I fooled my self at first thinking of complex numbers and the Mandelbrot Set.
I remember explaining to my wife that she should not be thinking of the total number of dollars that we would pay the bank by the end of our mortgage, but think in terms of what it would buy. With 5% inflation, something worth a buck today, would be worth 50 cents in 15 years and only 25 cents in 30 years.
Usually, returns are related to costs, if inflation is low, so, often, is interest.