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Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

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Old Jun 1st 2016, 12:57 pm
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Originally Posted by petitefrancaise

The discussion around all this have pandered to the xenophobes and rascists and as far as I can see, the discussion is getting worse and worse.



The claim that the UK "has lost control of its borders" has nothing to do with UK border control. The UK solely has full control of its borders. Tightest border control this side of the Atlantic, in fact.

The sound byte is deceptively not referring to UK border control, but to the EU freedom of movement part of the treaty.

Fact is, EVERY individual entering the UK is subject to admission by UK border agency officials, and UK border control has every right to refuse entry to anyone, for any reason it sees fit (and routinely does when appropriate).

But if there's no demonstrable threat, then what would be the point of refusing entry? Besides, we do have a treaty. Refusing entry for no reason would cause unnecessary political tensions.

So the term "taking back our borders" is wholly misleading. Well, actually, patently false.

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Old Jun 1st 2016, 8:16 pm
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Originally Posted by petitefrancaise
A strange consequence of leaving the EU will also be that the UK border with France (which is currently Calais) changes to the Kent coast. So all those horrible refugees will be in camps in kent.
Often claimed but not based in fact. The Le Touquet agreement which covers the juxtaposed border controls (not the borders themselves) between the UK and France is bilateral and has nothing to do with the EU.

Even if the French decided to be vindictive in the event of Brexit and cancel the agreement then the UK is still not part of the Schengen area so no visa national will be able to get on a plane or train from France to the UK without a valid visa as the airline or train operator would be heavily fined by the .

Even if that didn't apply there's still 20 miles of open water between Dover and Calais which is the real reason why the migrants are stuck in Calais.
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Old Jun 1st 2016, 8:28 pm
  #78  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

This was a funny analogy of Brexit

I know there are problems with the EU but can anyone properly explain what our plan is if we leave?
We have all been on a night out with that mate who when you are in a club says "it's shit here" let's go somewhere else. Then when you leave you realise he has no idea where to go and the place you left won't let you back in. Without a decent follow up plan a leave vote could see the UK standing in a kebab shop arguing about who's fault it is.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 12:34 am
  #79  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Originally Posted by dc koop
One possible consequence is that the UK gets left on the sidelines by Washington.
The Brexit crowd like to quote Norway as an example of a country that does okay without the EU but Britain is not anything like Norway.
Norway is part of the EEA, and as such has to comply with a boatload of laws, regulations and standards if it wishes to trade without tariffs etc being imposed... AND I understand it has to accept free movement of EU citizens too.

So you get all the sh*t the 'OUT' people complain about, but precisely ZERO say or influence in what these laws, regulations etc are...

I have to say that the 'IN' campaign has been about as poor as the OUT campaign has been.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 1:41 am
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Originally Posted by HarryTheSpider
..... So you get all the sh*t the 'OUT' people complain about, but precisely ZERO say or influence in what these laws, regulations etc are. ....
Which coincidentally is approximately how much say the UK has anyway when the Germans and their poodle decide which direction the European Onion is going.

Anyhow with much of European industry balanced on a knife edge the chances of the EU starting a tariff war with the UK is actually, not approximately, zero.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 1:51 am
  #81  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

So what's the deal with Germany and France deciding which way the EU will go ? What does the EU Parliament in Brussels do, rubber stamp everything Merkel and Hollande want?
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 2:10 am
  #82  
 
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Originally Posted by dc koop
.... What does the EU Parliament in Brussels do, .... ?
That's a fine question. Spend a lot of money, and produce a lot of hot air, I think.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 2:56 am
  #83  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Originally Posted by Pulaski
Which coincidentally is approximately how much say the UK has anyway when the Germans and their poodle decide which direction the European Onion is going.

Anyhow with much of European industry balanced on a knife edge the chances of the EU starting a tariff war with the UK is actually, not approximately, zero.
That's an interesting possibility... And how much of other industry & players would push for EU rules in this regard to be followed so that they can grab as much of that business from the UK as possible?

I can't accept that the uncertainty of the period between the vote to leave being declared, and the actual leave date, will have anything other than a bad impact on the UK economy - not something we need right now... Arguably it (uncertainty) is already having some impact in terms of investment decisions being delayed etc etc.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 4:23 am
  #84  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Originally Posted by mrken30
This was a funny analogy of Brexit

I know there are problems with the EU but can anyone properly explain what our plan is if we leave?
We have all been on a night out with that mate who when you are in a club says "it's shit here" let's go somewhere else. Then when you leave you realise he has no idea where to go and the place you left won't let you back in. Without a decent follow up plan a leave vote could see the UK standing in a kebab shop arguing about who's fault it is.
I agree. Before you pack a suitcase and bugger off out the door better at least have a plan of action.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 4:29 am
  #85  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

This is shaping up to be a year to remember if Trump becomes President and Britain leaves the EU. Anyone who thinks that the exit of Britain from the EU will have little or no ripple effect on the world stock markets and global economy must be living in la la land. The global economy isn't that healthy already and just in case no one has been following the news the British Pound has already dropped quite a bit against the US dollar
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 5:21 am
  #86  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

This is not an if issue, just when.

EU is not going anywhere positive.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 12:37 pm
  #87  
 
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Originally Posted by dc koop
This is shaping up to be a year to remember if Trump becomes President and Britain leaves the EU. Anyone who thinks that the exit of Britain from the EU will have little or no ripple effect on the world stock markets and global economy must be living in la la land. The global economy isn't that healthy already and just in case no one has been following the news the British Pound has already dropped quite a bit against the US dollar
The global stock markets and economy have been in the doldrums for the past 25 years, the Japanese economy has been moribund the whole time, the Chinese economy is a bubble inflated by a pegged exchange rate, the integration of eastern europe into the EU while having had benefits seems to have sucked the life out of Germany and the EU, Russia is going backwards economically and politically, the US economy has done little since the crisis caused by 9/11 and the Dow seems to have found a ceiling at 18,000.

It's time to shake things up and find new directions. I will be voting for Brexit and Trump. A little "action" will be better than another 25 years of comfortable drifting.

Last edited by Pulaski; Jun 2nd 2016 at 12:40 pm.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 1:22 pm
  #88  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Comfortable drifting sounds optimistic.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 1:31 pm
  #89  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Remind me which idiot promised this referendum, and why?

Rhetorical question.

The voting public is grossly underinformed on the matter and the vote is a lottery. Neither campaign seems to be seeking to actually inform.

Can we just scrap the thing? No good will come out of it, whatever the result.
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Old Jun 2nd 2016, 6:18 pm
  #90  
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Default Re: Consequences of the UK leaving Europe

Originally Posted by Pulaski
The global stock markets and economy have been in the doldrums for the past 25 years, the Japanese economy has been moribund the whole time, the Chinese economy is a bubble inflated by a pegged exchange rate, the integration of eastern europe into the EU while having had benefits seems to have sucked the life out of Germany and the EU, Russia is going backwards economically and politically, the US economy has done little since the crisis caused by 9/11 and the Dow seems to have found a ceiling at 18,000.

It's time to shake things up and find new directions. I will be voting for Brexit and Trump. A little "action" will be better than another 25 years of comfortable drifting.
So what will Trump do that Obama hasn't done to try to fix the economy ? Trump keeps ranting on about China and how he's going to "straighten them out" trade wise. The question is How?

How also is he going to bring back the thousands of factory jobs that have left already ?

Trump is selling us an unrealistic bill of goods. Someone needs to tell him that the 1950s just called and said they wont be coming back.

If the EU were to break up and revert to a continent of haves and have nots how long before another war takes place in that part of the world ?

Things may be drifting comfortably along as you say but at least the chances of ancient European rivalries and jealousies are not at risk of recurring
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