California fires
Nov 16th 2018, 11:01 pm
#47
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Re: California fires
You would think when fire like this strikes, everyone would jump into their trucks and start driving out of their area. And then if there was a huge tragedy, there would be the shells of a bunch of trucks on the road. It's just so horrific though. I find it hard to get my head around a fire disaster. Tornado and earthquake's make sense, but fire somehow seems escapable, as there should be some degree of warning.
Nov 16th 2018, 11:27 pm
#48
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Re: California fires
Elderly people, the infirm. Not everyone can sprint to their trucks and hightail it out of there.
Nov 16th 2018, 11:38 pm
#49
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Re: California fires
There has to be a program to fireproof "something", in the way there are hurricane and tornado shelters, and be able to sustain people for the few hours it takes for the fire to wash over them.
Nov 17th 2018, 12:46 am
#51
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Nov 17th 2018, 12:52 am
#53
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Re: California fires
What seems to have happened here is people tried to escape, but couldn't.
Nov 17th 2018, 4:04 am
#54
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Re: California fires
The Woolsey fire (the one in Malibu and surrounding areas) is not a forest fire. There are no forests in this part of the coastline. What there is is brush, mainly made up coastal chaparral with some coastal live oaks and coastal sage.
The chaparral comprises mainly dense shrubs. They grow as woody shrubs with thick, leathery, and often small leaves, some contain green leaves all year (are evergreen), and are typically drought resistant. When they are set alight they go up like a rocket due to the intense dryness of the plant.
While the north Californian fire (Camp Fire) did consist of large areas of forest with deciduous and evergreen trees (with many dead), the Woolsey fire was not a forest fire. The only managing of coastal chaparral that can be done is to remove it. Many developments and communities have a 100ft safe area mandated around them.
Where fires start in Santa Ana conditions (and they always start under these conditions, wouldn't you know) and with the steep canyons which make up the Malibu area there is little the firefighters can do but attempt to put perimeters around it - which they do magnificently again and again.
As one who has been evacuated twice in my area, with not a forest to be seen, I can only say that, once again, Trump does not know what he is talking about.
The chaparral comprises mainly dense shrubs. They grow as woody shrubs with thick, leathery, and often small leaves, some contain green leaves all year (are evergreen), and are typically drought resistant. When they are set alight they go up like a rocket due to the intense dryness of the plant.
While the north Californian fire (Camp Fire) did consist of large areas of forest with deciduous and evergreen trees (with many dead), the Woolsey fire was not a forest fire. The only managing of coastal chaparral that can be done is to remove it. Many developments and communities have a 100ft safe area mandated around them.
Where fires start in Santa Ana conditions (and they always start under these conditions, wouldn't you know) and with the steep canyons which make up the Malibu area there is little the firefighters can do but attempt to put perimeters around it - which they do magnificently again and again.
As one who has been evacuated twice in my area, with not a forest to be seen, I can only say that, once again, Trump does not know what he is talking about.
You'd be surprised how many US Forest Service Foresters agree with him.
Environmentalists have stymied US Forest Service from contracting for lumber sales, that's why Oregon's small towns have lost their lumber mills. And what has happened is forest debris has choked the forest floor so that when a fire hits it turns into an inferno. Another effect is that it chokes out the wild life. We currently live in a country of 350 million but the environmentalist would like to return to 1500 AD.
Nov 17th 2018, 5:22 am
#55
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Re: California fires
Some of these fires move so fast and so unpredictably that even if you have the means to escape then it can be too late by the time you realise the fire is coming. Many places have one road in/out and that can quickly become blocked by abandoned vehicles or fallen trees.
Many people are old, sick, or have no transport to leave. Sometimes the family only has one vehicle and if that vehcle s away from home, they are stuck.
Some people choose to stay and try to defend their homes. Some even have okaces that are considered reasonable places of shelter but in a fire as al-consuming and arge as the Camp Hill fire sheltering in place really was not a viable option.
Hurricane/cyclone shelters can be built to withstand most winds, but a storm is different to a fire. Building a fireproof shelter, that a whole community can reach in time, and that can withstand the kind of temperatures that melt every other structure in town.....still a pipedream unfortunately.
Many people seem to have tried to flee but the fire overtook the vehicles. It looks like part of the problem was sipy that the fire moved so fast no-one could out-run it.
All the bushfire plans in the world can't outwit Mother Nature at her worst.
The figure should drop fro 600; from the point of view of one who works in disaster management, the figures always spike as everyone reports family missing. They get reported multiple times by people using different names fror the missing person - one person might know their Uncle as Jim, another may report him as James, takes time to eliminate this by verifying whether they are one and the same. Some people may have fled to friends and not yet been in touch with all their family members. Some may even have just holed up in a motel somewhere and are sat in shock, no phone, no internet, just stunned by the experience. Some may not realise that ts a god idea to let the authorities, never mind their family, know that they are safe. Some may lack even the most basic means to make contact.
Whatever the final total though, its a horrendous disaster. One of the worst documents I have ever read through was the transcripts of the enquiry into the Victorian Fires in 2009, telling how people were found, how they perished together as a family. I suspect this will make similarly grim reading.
Nov 17th 2018, 7:18 am
#56
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Re: California fires
It brings back so many echoes from Victoria's Black Saturday fires in 2009, which left 180 dead.
Some of these fires move so fast and so unpredictably that even if you have the means to escape then it can be too late by the time you realise the fire is coming. Many places have one road in/out and that can quickly become blocked by abandoned vehicles or fallen trees.
Many people are old, sick, or have no transport to leave. Sometimes the family only has one vehicle and if that vehcle s away from home, they are stuck.
Some people choose to stay and try to defend their homes. Some even have okaces that are considered reasonable places of shelter but in a fire as al-consuming and arge as the Camp Hill fire sheltering in place really was not a viable option.
Hurricane/cyclone shelters can be built to withstand most winds, but a storm is different to a fire. Building a fireproof shelter, that a whole community can reach in time, and that can withstand the kind of temperatures that melt every other structure in town.....still a pipedream unfortunately.
Many people seem to have tried to flee but the fire overtook the vehicles. It looks like part of the problem was sipy that the fire moved so fast no-one could out-run it.
All the bushfire plans in the world can't outwit Mother Nature at her worst.
The figure should drop fro 600; from the point of view of one who works in disaster management, the figures always spike as everyone reports family missing. They get reported multiple times by people using different names fror the missing person - one person might know their Uncle as Jim, another may report him as James, takes time to eliminate this by verifying whether they are one and the same. Some people may have fled to friends and not yet been in touch with all their family members. Some may even have just holed up in a motel somewhere and are sat in shock, no phone, no internet, just stunned by the experience. Some may not realise that ts a god idea to let the authorities, never mind their family, know that they are safe. Some may lack even the most basic means to make contact.
Whatever the final total though, its a horrendous disaster. One of the worst documents I have ever read through was the transcripts of the enquiry into the Victorian Fires in 2009, telling how people were found, how they perished together as a family. I suspect this will make similarly grim reading.
Some of these fires move so fast and so unpredictably that even if you have the means to escape then it can be too late by the time you realise the fire is coming. Many places have one road in/out and that can quickly become blocked by abandoned vehicles or fallen trees.
Many people are old, sick, or have no transport to leave. Sometimes the family only has one vehicle and if that vehcle s away from home, they are stuck.
Some people choose to stay and try to defend their homes. Some even have okaces that are considered reasonable places of shelter but in a fire as al-consuming and arge as the Camp Hill fire sheltering in place really was not a viable option.
Hurricane/cyclone shelters can be built to withstand most winds, but a storm is different to a fire. Building a fireproof shelter, that a whole community can reach in time, and that can withstand the kind of temperatures that melt every other structure in town.....still a pipedream unfortunately.
Many people seem to have tried to flee but the fire overtook the vehicles. It looks like part of the problem was sipy that the fire moved so fast no-one could out-run it.
All the bushfire plans in the world can't outwit Mother Nature at her worst.
The figure should drop fro 600; from the point of view of one who works in disaster management, the figures always spike as everyone reports family missing. They get reported multiple times by people using different names fror the missing person - one person might know their Uncle as Jim, another may report him as James, takes time to eliminate this by verifying whether they are one and the same. Some people may have fled to friends and not yet been in touch with all their family members. Some may even have just holed up in a motel somewhere and are sat in shock, no phone, no internet, just stunned by the experience. Some may not realise that ts a god idea to let the authorities, never mind their family, know that they are safe. Some may lack even the most basic means to make contact.
Whatever the final total though, its a horrendous disaster. One of the worst documents I have ever read through was the transcripts of the enquiry into the Victorian Fires in 2009, telling how people were found, how they perished together as a family. I suspect this will make similarly grim reading.
Nov 17th 2018, 8:42 am
#57
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Re: California fires
It is indeed grim beyond belief, and I can understand how hard it is for people who have never encountered this kind of natural disaster to comprehend all the difficulties surrounding both the situation itself, and the aftermath. Even in communities which know they are a bushfire risk, no-one really expects an event of this magnitude. Communities prepare for a fire to impact one street or one suburb; to have a whole town destroyed is far harder to plan for, and also harder to convince people that it is a possibility.
Easy enough to plan to stay and defend, or leave early, and have all your emergency kit in place, but when the fire is that big and moving that fast, you really are at the mercy of nature.
Dwelling on the painful side again, identifications may take months many people may never be identified because the temperatures will have been so great that there is simply nothing left. A problem in Victoria, where families perished together, was that there was nothing left to even compare DNA with, all the personal possessions had gone too. So while the lists of missing peple will hopefullydrop quickly, there may be some whose fate remains unknown. These may even include people passing through the town en route elsewhere and no-one even knew they were there or homeless people sleeping rough.
And reading the comments from SanDiegoGirl reinforces the fact that fires do not just happen in a forested area If there's anything for us all to take from this its simply - wherever you live you can be at risk from natural disasters. Know your local risks, plan your kits and your escape as best you can, and once you have a plan stick to it.
Nov 19th 2018, 6:14 pm
#58
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Re: California fires
PG&E equipment may have been the cause of the Camp Fire. Lawsuits have already been filed against PG&E, but the official cause has not been determined.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4676666/w...HbS0zn32gLlwNA
https://globalnews.ca/news/4676666/w...HbS0zn32gLlwNA
Nov 21st 2018, 4:45 pm
#59
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Re: California fires
I used to work as a surveyor for the Bureau of Land Management in Colorado. I worked with a lot of forestry professionals out there and learned a few things. While I was out there, this occured: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Canyon_Fire
That smaller disaster gives an indication why fighting these fires is so tough. In the case of the South Canyon fire, 14 experienced hotshots and smokejumpers were killed by the blaze in a matter of minutes. The fire spread through the canopy of trees at over 30 MPH, no one can outrun that especially not in such rugged country. The canopies of trees are bone dry in fall. In addition, coniferous trees are full of highly flammable sap and are essentially natural matches. Add in fire-generated wind exacerbated by the natural topography and these areas basically explode with fire when burning.
The Camp Fire was similarly explosive on a much larger scale. It burned 100,000 acres in two days. Two towns were completely incinerated on the first day.
IMO, it's almost pointless to focus on the "causes" of the blaze. In some sense, these environments are natural tinderboxes with ecosystems that rely on fire to thrive. They are going to burn no matter what. A better approach is improved zoning of where people can build, improved situational awareness capabilities and improved resident awareness of the risk. As many articles have since pointed out, three quarters of local residents weren't even signed up for fire alerts, that's an easy to address issue. Also, the cell-based communication system in the area was quickly destroyed and no backup was available, that also seems like an easy problem to address. Here in the midwest, we have massive tornado sirens all over the place, that seems like one option. Lastly, too many people are building in fire country. This has been an issue for decades but it keeps getting worse. It's basically impossible to defend many of the buildings in these areas. One way to address this is to make FEMA assistance and insurance very difficult to get if you build in a dangerous area.
I think fire prevention techniques have dramatically improved over the past several years, I don't think forest management had much to do with the cataclysmic nature of this fire.
That smaller disaster gives an indication why fighting these fires is so tough. In the case of the South Canyon fire, 14 experienced hotshots and smokejumpers were killed by the blaze in a matter of minutes. The fire spread through the canopy of trees at over 30 MPH, no one can outrun that especially not in such rugged country. The canopies of trees are bone dry in fall. In addition, coniferous trees are full of highly flammable sap and are essentially natural matches. Add in fire-generated wind exacerbated by the natural topography and these areas basically explode with fire when burning.
The Camp Fire was similarly explosive on a much larger scale. It burned 100,000 acres in two days. Two towns were completely incinerated on the first day.
IMO, it's almost pointless to focus on the "causes" of the blaze. In some sense, these environments are natural tinderboxes with ecosystems that rely on fire to thrive. They are going to burn no matter what. A better approach is improved zoning of where people can build, improved situational awareness capabilities and improved resident awareness of the risk. As many articles have since pointed out, three quarters of local residents weren't even signed up for fire alerts, that's an easy to address issue. Also, the cell-based communication system in the area was quickly destroyed and no backup was available, that also seems like an easy problem to address. Here in the midwest, we have massive tornado sirens all over the place, that seems like one option. Lastly, too many people are building in fire country. This has been an issue for decades but it keeps getting worse. It's basically impossible to defend many of the buildings in these areas. One way to address this is to make FEMA assistance and insurance very difficult to get if you build in a dangerous area.
I think fire prevention techniques have dramatically improved over the past several years, I don't think forest management had much to do with the cataclysmic nature of this fire.
Last edited by Hiro11; Nov 21st 2018 at 5:19 pm.
Nov 23rd 2018, 12:02 am
#60
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Re: California fires
Real sad to see people dying and losing their homes. The air population where I live is really bad but has been getting better, yesterday we had some rain which actually helped a lot.
