2020 Election

Old Nov 19th 2020, 8:34 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by SpoogleDrummer View Post
Only if the ballots were shared 50-50 if Biden has 80% of the ballots then a Biden ballot would be more likely to get randomly pulled.
Well of course, but the net effect would be balanced.

Consider 1,000 original votes, with 80% of votes for Biden and 20% Trump - 800 Biden votes, 200 Trump votes. If you randomly pulled 100 votes from the pool of 1,000, statistically that would mean you'd pull 80 Biden Votes and 20 Trump Votes. The net result then would be
Biden: 800 - 80 = 720 votes remaining.
Trump: 200 - 20 = 180 remaining.

Old votes tallies: 200:800 = 1:4
New vote tallies: 180:720 = 1:4

Or, another way -
Old Votes tallies: 200 out of 1,000 for Trump = 200/1000 = 20% for Trump
New Votes tallies: 180 out of 900 for Trump = 180/900 = 20% for Trump


I love how numbers 'work' !

Last edited by Steerpike; Nov 19th 2020 at 8:41 pm.
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Old Nov 19th 2020, 8:44 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by lansbury View Post
What I don't understand is why each State has its own election rules, well I know why but it doesn't make sense. There should be uniform election rules which apply across all 50 States. One of which should be all ballots must be returned by close of election on polling day. Oregon has had only mail in voting since 1999, passed by a measure in 1998. Any ballot not received by a County elections office, or not in a ballot box by 8pm on polling day is void. It works, doesn't cause complaints and everyone knows to get their ballot in on time.
Arizona also has the 'no grace period' approach to mail-in ballots, which is why it's cool that they flipped to Trump - less issues to complain about for the likes of Giuliani.

I think this time around there was more of a push to allow late arrivals (with appropriate postmarks) due to the anticipated surge due to coronavirus. And in part it was a counter-measure to known shenanigans with the post office.

But as others said, good luck on the 'federal standard' - states rights rule supreme!

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Old Nov 19th 2020, 8:56 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Steerpike View Post
Well of course, but the net effect would be balanced.

Consider 1,000 original votes, with 80% of votes for Biden and 20% Trump - 800 Biden votes, 200 Trump votes. If you randomly pulled 100 votes from the pool of 1,000, statistically that would mean you'd pull 80 Biden Votes and 20 Trump Votes. The net result then would be
Biden: 800 - 80 = 720 votes remaining.
Trump: 200 - 20 = 180 remaining.

Old votes tallies: 200:800 = 1:4
New vote tallies: 180:720 = 1:4

Or, another way -
Old Votes tallies: 200 out of 1,000 for Trump = 200/1000 = 20% for Trump
New Votes tallies: 180 out of 900 for Trump = 180/900 = 20% for Trump


I love how numbers 'work' !
But it's also assuming that the number of bad ballots/envelopes are from the same ratio of voters, if you knew ahead of time how they handle pulling ballots you could purposely not sign your ballot. So in your example if 90 of the unsigned ballots are for Trump and they randomly pull ballots, Trump will only lose 20 and Biden would lose 80 despite the fact that only 10 of the unsigned ballots were for Biden
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Old Nov 20th 2020, 10:34 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
A national uniform election for all 50 states and DC for federal offices would really require a constitutional amendment, and good luck getting that done.

Would be nice though if federal elections and state elections were separate.

Kind of like how Canada does it, federal elections are provincial elections are totally separate, heck even municipal elections are seperate.

Non-Partisan Elections Canada handles the federal elections.

Each province handles their own elections, BC has non partisan Elections BC that handles everything.

When it comes to ballots, counting, polling places etc, there is 0 political interference.

In BC we had a provincial election last month, one riding was super close like 70 vote difference, nobody cried foul, even when the winner was projected he made it clear the vote was close and needed to wait for the automatic judicial recount before it was official. He did win in the end once the judicial recount was done.

It's really refreshing, and no machines all done the old fashioned way, paper ballots and counted by hand. Heck in the provincial election my wife got a write in ballot since it was a snap election, didn't even need to write a candidate name, just the party you wanted to vote for.
The system in Canada is definitely better and in more than one way. Especially in the money category. The U.S. is out of control with the obscene amount of money spent and the insane amount of time for campaigning.

"Canada’s federal election finance laws put limits on contributions to political parties and candidates. Only individuals — not corporations or trade unions — may donate.""Political parties and candidates face limits on the amounts they may spend during an election. Political parties may spend 73.5 cents for every voter in districts where they are running candidates. For their local campaigns, candidates may spend an amount based on the population of the district in which they are running, typically between $75,000 and $115,000. If the election campaign is longer than 36 days, as was the case in 2015, the limits for both parties and candidates are increased proportionately.

Groups or individuals other than political parties and candidates may spend no more than $150,000 to try to persuade voters during an election, and no more than $3,000 of that may be spent in any one district. Critically, all of these limits to spending apply only during the election period — between when the writs of election have been issued (when the election is officially called) and election day."



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Old Nov 20th 2020, 10:44 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

The Citizens United Supreme Court decision effectively opened the floodgates on election spending in the US. "Free speech" baby...
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Old Nov 20th 2020, 10:55 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Giantaxe View Post
The Citizens United Supreme Court decision effectively opened the floodgates on election spending in the US. "Free speech" baby...

The whole idiotic concept of "Corporations are people" is retarded in the extreme. Talk about abusing the interpretation of the language of the constitution.
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Old Nov 23rd 2020, 6:31 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Giantaxe View Post
The Citizens United Supreme Court decision effectively opened the floodgates on election spending in the US. "Free speech" baby...
Generally regarded as one of the worst SC decisions of the last 100 years.

Question for the brain trust: can Congress create direct legislation for campaign finance reform to categorically state that corporations are not people? Or will that die in the SC under stare decisis? Who comes out on top in that scenario?
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Old Nov 24th 2020, 12:51 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

I see that the GSA head finally decided to do her job and issue the letter declaring Biden to be the presumptive winner. Only a couple of weeks late there.

Seems like Trump may actually have given in to calls saying he should back down, but of course he'll never actual concede. We don't need him to, we just need him to get out of the way.
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Old Nov 28th 2020, 8:15 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

The really sad thing is that the "greatest country in the world" can't get all of the votes in a presidential election accurately and fully counted within 24 hours of the polls closing.
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Old Nov 28th 2020, 8:46 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by md95065 View Post
The really sad thing is that the "greatest country in the world" can't get all of the votes in a presidential election accurately and fully counted within 24 hours of the polls closing.
I think this year has been a little more difficult due to the increased volumes of postal votes.

I know that there were a number of states that weren't able to start processing these votes until polling day so that will have slowed things significantly.

I think in most previous elections though, the results were called within the first 24 hours after polls closed, even if not certified until later.
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Old Nov 28th 2020, 11:39 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by md95065 View Post
The really sad thing is that the "greatest country in the world" can't get all of the votes in a presidential election accurately and fully counted within 24 hours of the polls closing.
You can't take 2020 as representative. COVID put paid to that. Frankly I think they did a bang up job considering the circumstances.
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Old Nov 28th 2020, 1:39 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by md95065 View Post
The really sad thing is that the "greatest country in the world" can't get all of the votes in a presidential election accurately and fully counted within 24 hours of the polls closing.
I don’t think this is correct at all. In certain states, the deadline for receipt of postal votes is several days after Election Day. I believe this applies especially to votes coming in from abroad, including armed forces votes. So it is perfectly legitimate and understandable that the final result is not available till days or weeks after the election.

New York is one of the longest time scales, for instance. They’ve just finalized the vote counting here. Perfectly normal and uncontroversial. It’s just that you don’t often hear about the slow results here (NY) because the presidential result is usually not in question.
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Old Nov 28th 2020, 2:03 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by md95065 View Post
The really sad thing is that the "greatest country in the world" can't get all of the votes in a presidential election accurately and fully counted within 24 hours of the polls closing.
It's not the "country" that is counting the votes though is it? It's 50 states with varying levels of "greatness" doing the counting.

It's debatable which country is the "greatest country in the world" but the US never claimed that title based on how fast they turn in election results.
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Old Nov 28th 2020, 5:58 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Leslie View Post
It's not the "country" that is counting the votes though is it? It's 50 states with varying levels of "greatness" doing the counting.

It's debatable which country is the "greatest country in the world" but the US never claimed that title based on how fast they turn in election results.
I suppose if the US were a unitary republic with no federalism, all presidential elections would have a clear winner by midnight or whatever on election night, with one candidate up by several million votes.
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Old Nov 28th 2020, 6:30 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Leslie View Post
It's not the "country" that is counting the votes though is it? It's 50 states with varying levels of "greatness" doing the counting.

It's debatable which country is the "greatest country in the world" but the US never claimed that title based on how fast they turn in election results.
And break it down further it's many counties within each state doing the counting.
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