robtuck

I'm not saying it is "good" in the way you are thinking about, or those impacted would think about it. Just like someone in the glorious State of California may find themselves one day usurped by some annoying resident of Georgia who can do their work for less money - but that's ok because I am allowed to be here and be cheaper than people in other States.

What I am saying, and knowing that nobody agrees with me on, is that IT WILL HAPPEN. You cannot stop it, it is part of the human condition. Socialism and Communism never work because some people, not all, but enough, are greedy and some are lazy. Migrating is simply what we do, especially as we continue to focus the world on material wealth, but also as that wealth drives certain countries ahead of others. You won't stop it, no matter how hard you try. So, if you cannot stop it, what would you do if you accepted it? Not encouraged, just realised it will happen and you need to cater for it in the societal area you are part of? The issue I see, coming from a very different view point, is that we focus on trying to stop it and have no plan for what to do when it happens. A bit like drug use - it's taken a while but that discussion is changing. As the world population continues to climb, as we continue to get older, migration is becoming a similar issue. It's not easy, and you are talking about generational responses - so yes, some people will not embrace it at all in that time span. Why should I take a hit?

It's just my opinion that the world thinks about this the wrong way. If we focus on tactical ways of trying to stop it from happening, we will never actually solve anything.

scrubbedexpat099

Can you stop it totally, obviously not. It is as usual a question of numbers but when the numbers get too high, when basically you have no effective control there will be consequences, we are seeing in Europe, it will happen here.

Who will take the blame, well who is supporting this? Screwed Labour.

I saw we now have the somewhat weird situation of a Californian City taking action against the Feds for releasing Asylum seekers into the State, hang on a second what happened to State and Federal Laws on this issue. You can not have it both ways.

dakota44

All the hair pulling over the undocumented immigrants entering the country is overlooking a problem in the economy. Excerpt from here

https://www.vox.com/2019/3/18/182709...age-workers-us

"For nearly a year and a half now, the number of open jobs each month has been higher than the number of people looking for work — the first time that’s happened since the Department of Labor began tracking job turnover two decades ago.

At the end of January, the US economy had 7.6 million unfilled jobs, but only 6.5 million people were looking for work, according to data released Friday by the US Department of Labor. This was the 11th straight month that the number of job openings was higher than the number of job seekers. And each month, the gap has grown.

For two decades, there have been more available workers than available jobs. That changed last year.
Nearly ever industry now has a labor shortage, but here’s the twist: Employers are having a harder time filling blue-collar positions than professional positions that require a college education.
The hardest-to-find workers are no longer computer engineers. They are home health care aides, restaurant workers, and hotel staff. The shift is happening because more and more Americans are going to college and taking professional jobs, while working-class baby boomers are retiring en masse.

This means that — for once — low-skilled workers have the most leverage in the current labor market.

There’s no better time for working-class Americans to demand better wages, benefits, schedules, and work conditions. It also means immigration reform is more urgent than ever. In order to fill all the open jobs and keep the economy growing, Congress will need to allow more low-skilled immigrants to work. Legally.

​The new labor market data shows a lot of unfilled jobs that require college degrees — about 1 million in the professional business service sector. That includes lawyers, consultants, and computer programmers. But there are even more open jobs that don’t require that much education. That includes retail, hotel, and restaurant jobs. There’s also high demand for home health aides to care for aging baby boomers.​​​​​​
These are the kinds of jobs that low-skilled immigrants, often from Latin America, have long helped to fill. But Trump’s restrictions on immigration threaten to make the labor shortage worse. Since taking office, his administration has tried to scale back nearly every avenue of legal immigration, ignoring the high demand for unskilled immigrant workers, even at his own golf clubs.

Back in 2017, the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board warned Trump that his restrictions on immigration could hurt the economy."

Given that reality, 2 things come to mind. First, the situation would be a lot worse if not for the undocumented workers who have been for years.
Second, the country desperately needs an infrastructure program...which could create a few million more jobs that there are not enough workers to fill. This whole anti immigrant trail that Trump is riding will seriously hurt the economy.

scrubbedexpat099

The economy has changed, I do know a few people in Manufacturing but we now have a Financial Economy.

I do have some comments about the job situation, I would firstly mention that there are of course more people no longer actively looking for work.

I do know that certainly Governmental organisations are having trouble where I am employing people even if the job pays OK due the Drug testing requirement, I was told that for some positions they have relaxed the requirement so you only get tested if something happens.

One interesting example is Breckenridge, I know many people who work there and in the surrounding towns. Starter homes are from $500k now, there were places for seasonal low paid workers to rent but the rents have gone through the roof, many are now being used for short term rental and new building is of course focussed on the more expensive end of the market. The one thing that does not seem to have happened is pay increasing, so yes you see help wanted signs, there is a massive turnover, the days of being a ski bum and doing a bit of cleaning to get you by are a long gone. A friend has family staying and showed me the off peak daily rate, $185 for a day.

Nobody is going to build seasonal accomodation on very expensive land for low paid workers, so will be interesting to see what happens. Commute further, well the lowest pass is 11,500 ft and inevitably those working low end jobs will not have suitable vehicles.

No different I am sure in principal to the Bay area. And no doubt many others.

So yes I am sure there are plenty of low paying jobs in areas that nobody with a low paying job can afford to live in.

The other factor of course especially for these sort of jobs is they fluctuate in demand, big shortage now, but during the last crash it was very different. And we know there is one coming.

Immigration is a one way trip, so what happens when things tank and many of these low paid jobs, and other jobs go away.

Steerpike

The current situation appears to be somewhat stable; in fact, overall totals seem to be dropping.

According to this site - https://www.factcheck.org/2018/06/il...on-statistics/ -
"CMS found a decline in the undocumented population, and specifically those from Mexico, of about 1 million since 2010. And the Pew Research Center found a peak of 12.2 million in the population in 2007, and a decline since."

Steerpike

And since this is a thread on the 2020 election, it may be worth noting that this unemployment situation plays well for Trump, regardless of whether he actually deserves credit for it or not. If this situation continues for the next 18 months, and if the stock market does not slump, things could look somewhat rosy for the orange one.

scrubbedexpat099

I always wonder about those figures, how they can possibly be calculated by definition and they do not pass the smell test.

So the numbers have gone down, pretty sure that has not happened in my State, so where are the areas that have lost so many? You would have thought somebody might have noticed a mass exodus?

Giantaxe

Border apprehensions have declined markedly in the last 15 years (although they look as though they will increase this year) so that lends some weight to the idea that absolute numbers may have declined as well. The turning point seems to be the Great Recession, which could well have caused some undocumented immigrants to return home.

Ingles

For once we agree on something

scrubbedexpat099

I can see 2008 might have had a bump, and maybe for a couple of years afterwards but a long term trend when we have record numbers coming in? Well nobody knows how many coming in and the assumption is half overstay.

Like I say does not pass the smell test.

I did wonder of it is partly a question on classification, for example if they took DACA etc out of the numbers. 1986, number expected to apply was 350,000, number processed 2,700,000.

Steerpike

While it's somewhat self-evident that getting a count of 'undocumented' people is a challenge, there is a fair amount of effort put into this by various organizations. I did some consulting for a company in the Bay Area a few years ago that focused entirely on migrant farmworkers. I could never figure out what their business model was or who was paying them, but it seems like they were at least partly government funded and regulated. I was helping them with their IT stuff - servers, networking, and desktops, etc - and I wasn't even allowed to touch some of the computers because the information was considered highly sensitive. They were tracking the health, education, living standards, etc of all manner of workers. They would know, for example, that 'family x' would spend so many many months working in one area, then move to another area of the country as the crops changed. It was mind-boggling just how much information they had about the people.

While many people want to 'throw them back across the border', there do seem to be people actively trying to ensure these people get healthcare, and that their children get educated.

scrubbedexpat099

Begs more questions, how would they have any information, where are they getting it from?

I sort of know a Roofing Contractor who shall we say brings up Labour Gangs from Denver, pretty sure he does not know their names, well maybe his contact.I assume it is a cash or iffy documents type transaction. Restaurants etc the same.

Schools, well yes no immigration info asked, and I am sure a School might have a good idea but how would that be recorded?

Healthcare, well you pay cash, or if using a fake ID then again who knows why.

Ingles

Fox News obsession with A.O.Cortez has gone thru the roof

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...2-days-running

scrubbedexpat099

I am beginning to wonder is she is a Russian plant, for the GOP she is the gift that keeps on giving.

Hotscot

Undocumented immigrant? PC crap. That's not an official designation.

Here's the only relevant definition vis-à-vis U.S. regulations.


U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services

Immigrant

An alien who has been granted the right by the USCIS (U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services) to reside permanently in the United States and to work without restrictions in the United States. Such an individual is also known known as a Lawful Permanent Resident (LPR). All immigrants are eventually issued a "green card" (USCIS Form I-551), which is the evidence of the alien’s LPR status.