2020 Election
#3302
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 0
Re: 2020 Election
That is one of the biggest hurdles, you need the name recognition, and money to sustain a fairly long election cycle, its not like say Canada where the campaign is like what no more than like 50 days.
#3303
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Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
Re: 2020 Election
True, but Florida does have a large unknown in the next election in that the electorate will have a large number of ex-cons eligible to vote for the first time, whether a significant number of them will is another matter.
Never-Trumpers have not shifted and, it seems, nor have pro-Trumpers who remain as staunchly invested in him, if not more so, than when they put him there in 2016. I don't seem to meet any middle of the road wavering types but if I were one I would probably keep stum in most debates as I'd get my head bitten off whichever way I looked.
Never-Trumpers have not shifted and, it seems, nor have pro-Trumpers who remain as staunchly invested in him, if not more so, than when they put him there in 2016. I don't seem to meet any middle of the road wavering types but if I were one I would probably keep stum in most debates as I'd get my head bitten off whichever way I looked.
Florida has been so close in multiple elections in the last 30 years, that anything could potentially tip it. Though I'm not particularly convinced it will be a nail-biter this year - but anything can happen.
I think the number of core supporters on both sides is a lot smaller than popularly assumed, maybe 25% each or something like that. The key in telling that, will be how fluid the polls get. The benchmark for a highly polarised, "frozen" election was the 2004 Bush-Kerry race, where both candidates had about 48% support locked in, the polls didn't move much at all for six months and it really did come down to a small handful of voters in swing states. I am not sensing that here. It is worth remembering that Trump won in 2016 on 46% nationally, which is astonishing and not something we may ever see again in our lifetimes without a serious third party candidate involved.
Biden's age would be more of an issue if (1) Trump wasn't also in his 70s and (2) the Republicans were running a more conventional candidate.
#3304
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Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
Re: 2020 Election
Fox News: Trump trails in Florida by 9 points, lags among seniors: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...-among-seniors
This is up from a 3 point lead three months ago. The Fox News poll is not an outlier, I have seen others that have put Biden's lead in the 7-point range etc. 9 points is not statistical background noise. Trump cannot win if he loses Florida.
Take away the the names of the candidates, if you had a poll in July showing Candidate B leading Candidate A 49-40%, with Candidate A having a 44% approval rating, I think virtually every serious political analyst out there would tell you Candidate B was the odds-on favourite and Candidate A, while maybe not in "needs a miracle" territory yet, was in very serious trouble.
If those figures were applied to a statewide US Senate or Governor's race - the national party would be talking about pulling the plug and redirecting funds elsewhere to closer races.
This is also why Trump now wants to debate Biden four times. One of the maxims in politics is that the candidate who is behind, needs more debates.
Donald Trump's re-election bid is in serious, serious trouble. He has been behind the whole election cycle, but what is doing him in is his catastrophic COVID-19 response (which, for voters, we are now probably past the point of no return on) - not progressive activists trying to use BLM as a Red Bull energy drink.
This is up from a 3 point lead three months ago. The Fox News poll is not an outlier, I have seen others that have put Biden's lead in the 7-point range etc. 9 points is not statistical background noise. Trump cannot win if he loses Florida.
Take away the the names of the candidates, if you had a poll in July showing Candidate B leading Candidate A 49-40%, with Candidate A having a 44% approval rating, I think virtually every serious political analyst out there would tell you Candidate B was the odds-on favourite and Candidate A, while maybe not in "needs a miracle" territory yet, was in very serious trouble.
If those figures were applied to a statewide US Senate or Governor's race - the national party would be talking about pulling the plug and redirecting funds elsewhere to closer races.
This is also why Trump now wants to debate Biden four times. One of the maxims in politics is that the candidate who is behind, needs more debates.
Donald Trump's re-election bid is in serious, serious trouble. He has been behind the whole election cycle, but what is doing him in is his catastrophic COVID-19 response (which, for voters, we are now probably past the point of no return on) - not progressive activists trying to use BLM as a Red Bull energy drink.
Last edited by carcajou; Jun 28th 2020 at 2:15 am.
#3305
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Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 22,348
Re: 2020 Election
Swapped out no. But could in theory resign early into the term after winning and letting the VP take office, could be a round about way to get someone in who may not be electable into main office, but still a long shot, people don't spend the money, time, effort to win the election to resign.
It would be good if the US had a TV show similar to the one they (I think Sky?) did in the UK where for Brexit they brainstormed different scenarios, the likelihoods of them occurring and how they could likely play out. As it turned out they were all wrong in regard to the outcome but it was interesting to follow.
Yeah, actually pretty much every step of the way in the US election cycle seems incredibly and painfully long - which isn't a good thing, IMO - especially when there are so many hot-heads about. In fact long election cycles could even contribute to making people hot-headed. Canada sounds rather like Australia campaign-length wise, which I think makes for generally more dignified and calmer election cycles - but then our populations are one tenth or less of the US, likewise the numbers of states involved.
#3306
Re: 2020 Election
That all makes sense. But is there anything to stop him from giving up before the election - setting a different sequences of events to play out dependent on where he was at? For example hypothetical sequence one: where he has already identified who his vice president will be, and two: where he hasn't?
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#3307
Account Closed
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 0
Re: 2020 Election
Yeah, actually pretty much every step of the way in the US election cycle seems incredibly and painfully long - which isn't a good thing, IMO - especially when there are so many hot-heads about. In fact long election cycles could even contribute to making people hot-headed. Canada sounds rather like Australia campaign-length wise, which I think makes for generally more dignified and calmer election cycles - but then our populations are one tenth or less of the US, likewise the numbers of states involved.
#3308
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Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 22,348
Re: 2020 Election
Here's one of my favourites from the last elections:
#3309
Re: 2020 Election
No idea where the right place to put this is. The enfant terribles strikes again, at a 3 percenter rally in Olympia WA.
"WHO what you gonna do? Chop em up like the Saudi's do"
"WHO what you gonna do? Chop em up like the Saudi's do"
#3310
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Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
Re: 2020 Election
What is a 3 percenter?
I know what a 1 percenter and a 10 percenter is.
I know what a 1 percenter and a 10 percenter is.
#3312
Re: 2020 Election
Well, that's bloody marvellous, I now know what a 3%er is, and like yourself knew what a 1%er is, however, Googling 10%er sent me down a rabbit hole and I discovered that a 10%er is part of a theory pushed by the 5%ers, cheers verra much. No more googling any more percentagers tonight methinks!!
#3313
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Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
Re: 2020 Election
Well, that's bloody marvellous, I now know what a 3%er is, and like yourself knew what a 1%er is, however, Googling 10%er sent me down a rabbit hole and I discovered that a 10%er is part of a theory pushed by the 5%ers, cheers verra much. No more googling any more percentagers tonight methinks!!
What did you find was a ten percenter? I always thought they were Champagne Socialists. Napa Valley hypocritical types who want capitalism and stock options for themselves but socialism for everyone else etc.
#3314
Re: 2020 Election
I don't know what a 5 percenter is and I declined to look up a 3 percenter.
What did you find was a ten percenter? I always thought they were Champagne Socialists. Napa Valley hypocritical types who want capitalism and stock options for themselves but socialism for everyone else etc.
What did you find was a ten percenter? I always thought they were Champagne Socialists. Napa Valley hypocritical types who want capitalism and stock options for themselves but socialism for everyone else etc.
#3315
Re: 2020 Election
To follow the lead of someone else in this thread ... highlight 'champagne socialist' and right click it and choose 'search google for ... '.
There you shall find ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champagne_socialist
A 'Napa Valley hypocritical type' is an instance of a Champagne socialist.
There you shall find ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champagne_socialist
A 'Napa Valley hypocritical type' is an instance of a Champagne socialist.