2020 Election

Old May 31st 2020, 11:13 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Giantaxe
The person who "barely uses healthcare today" often becomes the opposite down the road. That's the nature of growing older. Also,we've seen from this pandemic that the idea of tying healthcare access to employment is an exceedingly poor idea. The sceanrio of lose employment, lose health insurance has played out for millions in the last few months.
In theory though, at least, if you lose your job then that's a valid case for enrollment in an ACA plan, and if you are unemployed that should mean big subsidy. So in today's environment, you should not be 'without' insurance if you lose your job - right?

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Old May 31st 2020, 11:38 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Steerpike
In theory, though, at least, if you lose your job then that's a valid case for enrollment in an ACA plan, and if you are unemployed that should mean big subsidy. So in today's environment, you should not be 'without' insurance if you lose your job - right?
I lost my job and healthcare whilst my wife was undergoing treatment for Ovarian Cancer. Fortunately I was able to get another job before I left my former employer. Plus I got severance pay so I actually made out. But the outcome could have been devastating.
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Old Jun 1st 2020, 3:02 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Steerpike
For what it's worth, I view the President is something of a figurehead. I expect the president to be presidential, to lead, to inspire. I expect them to surround themselves with smart people and to listen to them. I expect them to hold broad policy positions, then allow others to implement them. The biggest complaint I have of our current President is that he lacks all these characteristics, and it has a serious negative effect on the country. Kamala Harris, like Obama, would likely be an inspirational leader.
Well, seems like Kamala Harris may now be toast - https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...e-floyd-291063
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Old Jun 1st 2020, 3:04 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by johnwoo
I lost my job and healthcare whilst my wife was undergoing treatment for Ovarian Cancer. Fortunately I was able to get another job before I left my former employer. Plus I got severance pay so I actually made out. But the outcome could have been devastating.
Not wanting to make light of your obviously difficult situation (back then) but presumably, you would have gone on "COBRA" for 18 months. And if this had been in the last 10 years or so, you could have enrolled in a ACA-compliant plan and received a healthy subsidy if you had no income.
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Old Jun 1st 2020, 3:21 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Steerpike
In theory though, at least, if you lose your job then that's a valid case for enrollment in an ACA plan, and if you are unemployed that should mean big subsidy. So in today's environment, you should not be 'without' insurance if you lose your job - right?
COBRA or an ACA policy are typically the two options. The former is likely to be too expensive for most made unemployed. The latter is fine as long as you think your income is going to be low enough over the year to qualify for a subsidy big enough to approach a cost similar to your prior employer's insurance. And even then, you'll (i) be faced with a coverage gap before the ACA policy kicks in; and (ii) have to start afresh with a brand new yearly deductible. Post ACA, things are certainly a lot better for many newly unemployed, but still the cracks are there.

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Old Jun 1st 2020, 3:56 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Steerpike
Not wanting to make light of your obviously difficult situation (back then) but presumably, you would have gone on "COBRA" for 18 months. And if this had been in the last 10 years or so, you could have enrolled in a ACA-compliant plan and received a healthy subsidy if you had no income.
COBRA is very expensive, I was preparing for it but never had to use it. Back then employee contributions to company healthcare was minimal, and
going through a traumatic and extremely stressful time, it's just one more thing to add to everything else.

footnote there was looting of some Walnut Creek stores in broad daylight today.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/...tests-looting/
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Old Jun 1st 2020, 5:01 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by civilservant
I work in the US healthcare sector, and am wholly opposed to M4A.

From a business perspective, the reimbursement provided by Medicare is a pittance compared to that offered from insurance companies. If every hospital were only a Medicare/Medicaid hospital, many would close - especially rural ones like mine.

From a personal perspective, I am one of the middle, making less than $100k, that would be taken to the cleaners by the policy as proposed. My taxes would increase far beyond the $100 a month that I currently pay in insurance premiums for my wife and I. I agree that US healthcare should be better, but I don’t see why I should be forced to subsidize others when at present I barely use what healthcare I do have.

Thats not a popular opinion here, but it is what it is
If everyone could access healthcare for such a premium, doubt many if any would have an issue with healthcare, you seem fortunate to have good health and low cost insurance.

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Old Jun 1st 2020, 5:08 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Looks like ANTIFA will be declared a terrorist organisation
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Old Jun 1st 2020, 5:45 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Boiler
Looks like ANTIFA will be declared a terrorist organisation
More bluster from Trump to try and do something that’s meaningless.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/u...group.amp.html

Pretty weak attempt by Trump to deflect from the real issues.

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Old Jun 1st 2020, 7:04 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by johnwoo
COBRA is very expensive, I was preparing for it but never had to use it. Back then employee contributions to company healthcare was minimal, and
going through a traumatic and extremely stressful time, it's just one more thing to add to everything else.

footnote there was looting of some Walnut Creek stores in broad daylight today.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/...tests-looting/
I got a message transcribed as "...are advised to stay home due to the civil unrest reported....Currently there are multiple reports of large mobile groups of riders and losers traveling throughout..". Riders and losers???? I checked my phone and it was rioters and looters!

I think some posters here don't realize how wasteful and inefficient the US system is. To mention just one thing from my past experience- underuse of services before the deductible, and wasteful overuse in a year OOP is reached- I doubt if such inefficiencies are factored into estimates of how much would be saved by having a state system, which I expect just take into account administrative savings. Doctors' pay has been mentioned, but that only accounts for a small part of US overspend. Under a state system taxes would go up, but that would be more than matched by an increase in pay in lieu of health insurance.


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Old Jun 1st 2020, 8:42 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Looting hits Long Beach, Santa Monica as countywide curfew goes into effect

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...wn-l-a-stunned

Somebody I know is in the middle of this, quite scary.
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Old Jun 1st 2020, 8:50 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by Giantaxe
More bluster from Trump to try and do something that’s meaningless.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/u...group.amp.html

Pretty weak attempt by Trump to deflect from the real issues.
Trump will try to run a Nixon '68 style campaign. That means pumping up the volume on Twitter and trying to make groups like Antifa etc look like the face of the Democratic Party.

Activists in the media (and on social media) will take the bait, give every Trump tweet tons of oxygen and will play up the extremists on both sides to generate conflict and clicks. This really will be an election for the (to use Nixon's term) "silent majority" - who will be completely ignored by the media. Which candidate will find the best non-traditional means to reach them?

Still plenty of room for a wild card. What if someone like Bloomberg decides to launch a last-minute third party run with something like a "unity ticket" ploy with a moderate Republican?

I would not trust any polling coming out without giving a thorough look under the hood first at the methodology. "Polls" were wrong in the lead-up to 2016; the exit polls, however - using traditional methods - were spot on, nailing both Michigan and Wisconsin. I strongly suspect the "polls" were using Mook-style analytics and that was why they got it so wrong.







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Old Jun 1st 2020, 5:24 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by carcajou
Trump will try to run a Nixon '68 style campaign. That means pumping up the volume on Twitter and trying to make groups like Antifa etc look like the face of the Democratic Party.

Activists in the media (and on social media) will take the bait, give every Trump tweet tons of oxygen and will play up the extremists on both sides to generate conflict and clicks. This really will be an election for the (to use Nixon's term) "silent majority" - who will be completely ignored by the media. Which candidate will find the best non-traditional means to reach them?

Still plenty of room for a wild card. What if someone like Bloomberg decides to launch a last-minute third party run with something like a "unity ticket" ploy with a moderate Republican?

I would not trust any polling coming out without giving a thorough look under the hood first at the methodology. "Polls" were wrong in the lead-up to 2016; the exit polls, however - using traditional methods - were spot on, nailing both Michigan and Wisconsin. I strongly suspect the "polls" were using Mook-style analytics and that was why they got it so wrong.
Yes polls need to be improved on, but I doubt if looking at exit poll methods will help, as they're quite different and based on actual votes.
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Old Jun 1st 2020, 5:34 pm
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by carcajou
Trump will try to run a Nixon '68 style campaign. That means pumping up the volume on Twitter and trying to make groups like Antifa etc look like the face of the Democratic Party.

Activists in the media (and on social media) will take the bait, give every Trump tweet tons of oxygen and will play up the extremists on both sides to generate conflict and clicks. This really will be an election for the (to use Nixon's term) "silent majority" - who will be completely ignored by the media. Which candidate will find the best non-traditional means to reach them?

Still plenty of room for a wild card. What if someone like Bloomberg decides to launch a last-minute third party run with something like a "unity ticket" ploy with a moderate Republican?

I would not trust any polling coming out without giving a thorough look under the hood first at the methodology. "Polls" were wrong in the lead-up to 2016; the exit polls, however - using traditional methods - were spot on, nailing both Michigan and Wisconsin. I strongly suspect the "polls" were using Mook-style analytics and that was why they got it so wrong.
If there is a massive move to mail-in voting, 'exit polls' as we know them could become obsolete.

I had the misfortune the other night to be surfing channels, and caught a glimpse of Lou Dobbs on Fox. Lou Dobbs is one of Trump's attack dogs. He was doing a segment on 'voter fraud'. He lined up "experts" who had tons of 'evidence' of voter fraud through mail voting. Doesn't matter how wrong he is, this is the message being pushed out by the Trump machine and it will land on fertile ears. He was totally supportive of Trump's battle with Twitter.


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Old Jun 2nd 2020, 12:17 am
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Default Re: 2020 Election

Originally Posted by carcajou
Trump will try to run a Nixon '68 style campaign. That means pumping up the volume on Twitter and trying to make groups like Antifa etc look like the face of the Democratic Party.
Pretty clear that's the strategy, threatening to send in the army being the latest salvo. 2020 certainly has a very 1968 feel to it, except for the fact that Nixon wasn't the incumbent and Johnson decided not to run for a second term.

Originally Posted by carcajou
I would not trust any polling coming out without giving a thorough look under the hood first at the methodology. "Polls" were wrong in the lead-up to 2016; the exit polls, however - using traditional methods - were spot on, nailing both Michigan and Wisconsin. I strongly suspect the "polls" were using Mook-style analytics and that was why they got it so wrong.
I don't see how you can compare exit polls to earlier polling.
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