Originally Posted by MMcD

Before hitting 'Reply' on my own post, I don't know why exactly...but something impelled me to jump way back and read through page one of this thread.
Glad I did (my god - what we've endured since Steerpike began this ).
In hindsight these initial posts put what I had written and what has taken place over the last few years - into an interesting perspective.
Here are a few of the opening messages:







Two men are directly responsible for Joe Biden having become the presumptive 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate.
Both are African American…

1) Barack Obama:
If Obama hadn’t (twice) chosen Joe Biden as his running mate, and Biden hadn’t been his Vice President for 8 years - he would not, in 2020, at the age of 77 (and having twice run for this office unsuccessfully in the past), have again thrown his hat into the ring.

2) Jim Clyburn:
If, at the end of February, South Carolina Senator Jim Clyburn had not, with the announcement of his endorsement, rescued and resuscitated what had disintegrated into a faltering Biden campaign - its death knell would have sounded long before the May primary.
Some of the candidates who quickly dropped out after the Clyburn endorsement likely wouldn’t have done so….
And Biden would have been 3 for 3 in his quixotic quest for the Presidency.

Instead, an injection of life-support was generated by Senator Clyburn’s endorsement. It unleashed a geyser of African American enthusiasm….and the rest, to this point, is history….
…So, what’s next?

Clearly, the Biden campaign’s African American support has become foundational.
It’s also existential.
That support is put to the test when he comes out with stupid remarks, as he did the other day when he challenged the authenticity of the blackness of any Trump-supporting African American.

Biden pledged to choose a woman for his running mate.
In the spirit of inclusiveness, and given that there are a spate of eminently qualified women of colour from whom to choose - there’s ample reason for that woman to be an African American.
More to the point - one African American woman, in particular, meets all the criteria he stipulated as essential:

She is Kamala Harris:

I didn’t vote for Joe Biden in the March Primary
Had Kamala Harris not have already dropped out - I wouldn’t have voted for her in March either.

Flash forward 6 months…

I’ll definitely vote for Joe Biden in November
With Kamala Harris as his running mate I’d cast that vote with a lot more enthusiasm.
And optimism.
And even some excitement.

And so, perhaps, might many African Americans - who, if they don’t see a ballot reflecting inclusiveness, might just “vote” to stay home.

If that happened, Joe wouldn't be the only loser!

Originally Posted by Boiler

There has been plenty of coverage of Kamala on here do we really have to go through it again?

Originally Posted by UkWinds5353

The day after the election I talked to a great many Hispanic Americans .

Originally Posted by BEVS

How many is a great many? Where? How?
Only I've noted previously that you tend towards the something or other a bit around the edges sweepy stuff. As in, you write as though you speak for all Americans in a way, whereas Rete also speaks for all Americans but is in an opposing corner to you. To wit , you cannot both be speaking for all Americans.

So how many is many ?

Originally Posted by BEVS

How many is a great many? Where? How?
Only I've noted previously that you tend towards the something or other a bit around the edges sweepy stuff. As in, you write as though you speak for all Americans in a way, whereas Rete also speaks for all Americans but is in an opposing corner to you. To wit , you cannot both be speaking for all Americans.

So how many is many ?

Originally Posted by UkWinds5353

Since 2016 how many people have I spoken with about deciding not voting back then? Hundreds of people, who actually know other people that stayed home. Over three million Obama supporters decided not to vote. We are very politically active definitely more so than the average family.
Do you know people who decided not to vote in 2016?

Originally Posted by carcajou

Yep.



Sorry no. Cuban voters lifted Trump over the line in Florida. Hispanic voters are not a monolithic bloc that vote unilaterally Democratic. The idea that Hispanic voters "stayed home" any more than other voters did, and did so because Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are white, is nonsensical. As is the idea you did some kind of valid and reliable exit poll of Hispanic voters the day after the election.

I certainly know people who didn't bother to vote in 2016.

Originally Posted by zzrmark

And bringing us up to date, while there are enough Democrats in Florida to take the majority vote they are still confined to a few urban-centric counties, but the majority of counties in Florida are still rural and, certainly in the ones I drive through, the Trump flags are still flying. Historically Red states, like Texas, may be returning a stronger Blue vote as cities expand but I don't think that Florida's growth is Blue enough to make much difference. We may still be a swing state but unless we get a prospective Dem VP that appeals to the non-white vote I believe that Florida will go to Trump, again.

Originally Posted by MMcD

A Florida District Court ruling came down last night that might have a decisive impact on the State's Redness/Blueness
Of course a significant challenge is guaranteed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...6df_story.html

Originally Posted by MMcD

A Florida District Court ruling came down last night that might have a decisive impact on the State's Redness/Blueness
Of course a significant challenge is guaranteed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...6df_story.html

Originally Posted by zzrmark

That is strange because, here in Florida, we were given to understand that it was the working person's vote that swung Florida for Trump. You only have to leave the city boundaries to see how strong his support is in the rural counties and the counties one usually associates with a strong Cuban voter presence came out for Clinton.

Originally Posted by carcajou

Yep.



Sorry no. Cuban voters lifted Trump over the line in Florida. Hispanic voters are not a monolithic bloc that vote unilaterally Democratic. The idea that Hispanic voters "stayed home" any more than other voters did, and did so because Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are white, is nonsensical. As is the idea you did some kind of valid and reliable exit poll of Hispanic voters the day after the election.

I certainly know people who didn't bother to vote in 2016.

Originally Posted by UkWinds5353

You may already know the fact that the Cuban population is not even close to being the largest minority population in Florida. Nor is the Cuban population a monolithic voting block especially regarding their younger population. Puerto Ricans are the fastest growing Hispanic population in Florida (especially since the problems in Puerto Rico)and they as a voting block tend to swing toward progressive politics. I've knocked on a lot of doors in Florida during canvassing and it's not always easy to excite prospective new voters to come out their homes to voice how they want the state ran. Based on information after the election took place it was a combination of factors why Florida went to Trump. There was a surge of voters that went to Trump, but equally, if not more important there was a great deal of voter apathy that played a major role in most of the swing states in 2016. This is not my opinion it's based on data. Despite Florida having more Democrats than Republicans, it is a known fact that elections here are notoriously close most cycles. The fact that I personally have registered more people to vote in one Presidential election than the total number of votes which decided the Bush vs Gore Florida election speaks to how close our elections can be. But the problem for my soon to be former Republican party is how most of America is becoming more progressive in the idea that good government is not a bad concept. It has a place in people's lives and can actually improve the standard of one's ability to build a more prosperous existence.

Originally Posted by carcajou

By "strong Cuban voter presence" I guess you mean Miami-Dade, where Clinton got 1% more of the vote than Obama did by percentage, and Broward, where she underran and got less than Obama did. By "working person's vote" I guess that means Palm Beach County, one of the wealthiest counties in the US, where Clinton underran the Democrats' historical advantage substantially, and the county had its closest result in a generation. Or Pinellas County, which she lost outright but Obama won twice (and, Gore also won Pinellas). By "rural" I guess you mean places like Jacksonville, St Petersburg and Ft Myers-Naples, all of which Trump carried?

It's one thing to parrot an MSNBC talking point about the "white working class" but who the hell exactly is that? Usually on this forum it's a dog whistle for "rural" and "Southern." But you will not find many of those in Florida south of Orlando and the demographic in a place like Lee and Martin Counties, are very different than in places like Santa Rosa and Columbia Counties.

If the "white working class" means exactly what it says, that's about 68% or 69% of the electorate. Quite a large portion for so many to be so dismissive about, which is part of the problem. You counter that by having policies that appeal to that group, not by playing racial identity politics as UKwinds proposed.

By the way some of the Florida counties Clinton got stomped in, have large relative African-American populations. Escambia County is about 23% African-American, compared to 15% in Miami-Dade. Duval County is about 28% African-American.

Originally Posted by UkWinds5353

Since 2016 how many people have I spoken with about deciding not voting back then? Hundreds of people, who actually know other people that stayed home. Over three million Obama supporters decided not to vote. We are very politically active definitely more so than the average family.
Do you know people who decided not to vote in 2016?