2020 Election
#1801
Re: 2020 Election
I'll be honest. Biden is more resilient than I thought he would be. He has consistently held a lead in the national polling. I'm not sure if this lead is because people aren't paying attention to the primary or they just don't care about the continual gaffes and foibles. It may be that Biden goes on and wins the nomination. Another possibility is that he doesn't win the first couple of contests in IA and NH (which is a good possibility based on polling there) and it brings into question his electability argument. Or as gets closer to the actual voting voters start paying more attention and start to see the negatives about Biden, especially if the impeachment trial is happening and his name is associated with it.
One thing to consider is that a large part of Bernie's support is from people who are younger and those that aren't regular voters. So his support could be undercounted in the polling, but it also depends if they can be persuaded to show up and vote. Bernie's organizing and grassroots support is second to none, but it will be for nothing if the voters don't show up.
I still think Biden has the best chance of winning with Bernie not too far behind. Anyone else seems unlikely at this point. But it could still change.
One thing to consider is that a large part of Bernie's support is from people who are younger and those that aren't regular voters. So his support could be undercounted in the polling, but it also depends if they can be persuaded to show up and vote. Bernie's organizing and grassroots support is second to none, but it will be for nothing if the voters don't show up.
I still think Biden has the best chance of winning with Bernie not too far behind. Anyone else seems unlikely at this point. But it could still change.
I said it last election...with a population of 30+ million...are these 3 (Biden/Sanders/Trump) the best America can come up with?
#1802
Account Closed
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 0
Re: 2020 Election
Boils down to money, takes so much money to just run if one can't raise it, there is no chance, we really need a massive cap on elections, and more restrictions to ensure a more level playing field, if not for the massive sums of money needed we may get better candidates.
I am just hoping some of those states that were blue in 2012, but red in 2016 will return blue in 2020, just need a few of those states to lose enough jobs to piss enough people off and blame Trump, anyone have connections to business leaders in these states who can do some lay offs to piss the population off at Trump.
Problem with politics is it seems to be a my way or highway with neither side willing to negotiate and find common ground, stop acting like the other side is the enemy and work together, we are all the same country, and its fine to have differences but for crying out loud we are not enemies and finding common ground will benefit us all. My grandfather was a career politician and left politics in the late 90's, I should write him and get his perspective, might be interesting. Just my random thought don't mind me.
I am just hoping some of those states that were blue in 2012, but red in 2016 will return blue in 2020, just need a few of those states to lose enough jobs to piss enough people off and blame Trump, anyone have connections to business leaders in these states who can do some lay offs to piss the population off at Trump.
Problem with politics is it seems to be a my way or highway with neither side willing to negotiate and find common ground, stop acting like the other side is the enemy and work together, we are all the same country, and its fine to have differences but for crying out loud we are not enemies and finding common ground will benefit us all. My grandfather was a career politician and left politics in the late 90's, I should write him and get his perspective, might be interesting. Just my random thought don't mind me.
Last edited by scrubbedexpat091; Dec 31st 2019 at 8:54 pm.
#1803
Re: 2020 Election
Well, I wouldn't say that either one of Biden or Sanders would ensure a second term for Trump, but Biden would be most likely. Of all the candidates Bernie is the one that has the best chance to defeat Trump because he can best blunt all of Trump's attacks.
#1804
Re: 2020 Election
Boils down to money, takes so much money to just run if one can't raise it, there is no chance, we really need a massive cap on elections, and more restrictions to ensure a more level playing field, if not for the massive sums of money needed we may get better candidates.
I am just hoping some of those states that were blue in 2012, but red in 2016 will return blue in 2020, just need a few of those states to lose enough jobs to piss enough people off and blame Trump, anyone have connections to business leaders in these states who can do some lay offs to piss the population off at Trump.
Problem with politics is it seems to be a my way or highway with neither side willing to negotiate and find common ground, stop acting like the other side is the enemy and work together, we are all the same country, and its fine to have differences but for crying out loud we are not enemies and finding common ground will benefit us all. My grandfather was a career politician and left politics in the late 90's, I should write him and get his perspective, might be interesting. Just my random thought don't mind me.
But personally I find it hard to find common ground with fascists. Maybe that's just me, I don't know.
#1805
Re: 2020 Election
Boils down to money, takes so much money to just run if one can't raise it, there is no chance, we really need a massive cap on elections, and more restrictions to ensure a more level playing field, if not for the massive sums of money needed we may get better candidates.
I am just hoping some of those states that were blue in 2012, but red in 2016 will return blue in 2020, just need a few of those states to lose enough jobs to piss enough people off and blame Trump, anyone have connections to business leaders in these states who can do some lay offs to piss the population off at Trump.
Problem with politics is it seems to be a my way or highway with neither side willing to negotiate and find common ground, stop acting like the other side is the enemy and work together, we are all the same country, and its fine to have differences but for crying out loud we are not enemies and finding common ground will benefit us all. My grandfather was a career politician and left politics in the late 90's, I should write him and get his perspective, might be interesting. Just my random thought don't mind me.
I am just hoping some of those states that were blue in 2012, but red in 2016 will return blue in 2020, just need a few of those states to lose enough jobs to piss enough people off and blame Trump, anyone have connections to business leaders in these states who can do some lay offs to piss the population off at Trump.
Problem with politics is it seems to be a my way or highway with neither side willing to negotiate and find common ground, stop acting like the other side is the enemy and work together, we are all the same country, and its fine to have differences but for crying out loud we are not enemies and finding common ground will benefit us all. My grandfather was a career politician and left politics in the late 90's, I should write him and get his perspective, might be interesting. Just my random thought don't mind me.
Both Sanders and Trump sound like nutcases, but Sanders sounds and acts like a raving lunatic. He goes red in the face flapping his arms around from the get go.
#1806
Account Closed
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 0
Re: 2020 Election
Don't take everything so seriously.
I agree that there is far too much money in politics, and the way campaigns are financed needs to change, but you also have to look at where the candidates are getting their money from and how the influences the candidates. If like Biden or Buttigieg they are getting most of their money from the rich, then it's fair to say that the rich are going to have more influence over how they govern than candidates like Sanders or Warren who get most of their money from the 99%.
You don't think it's tacky to wish other people lose their jobs just so you have a better chance of a political victory?
There is still plenty of bipartisanship when it comes to giving the defence industry all the money they want and more, or on trade deals that screw over workers. What are you complaining about?
But personally I find it hard to find common ground with fascists. Maybe that's just me, I don't know.
You don't think it's tacky to wish other people lose their jobs just so you have a better chance of a political victory?
There is still plenty of bipartisanship when it comes to giving the defence industry all the money they want and more, or on trade deals that screw over workers. What are you complaining about?
But personally I find it hard to find common ground with fascists. Maybe that's just me, I don't know.
#1807
Account Closed
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 2
Re: 2020 Election
There are some comparisons with the recent UK election, all the opposition have to do is put someone forward who is passably electable, the interesting question is why this seems so hard.
#1810
Re: 2020 Election
Well that did not happen last time. However the Dems do have a Billionaire available. Only one of them is not a Millionaire.
There are some comparisons with the recent UK election, all the opposition have to do is put someone forward who is passably electable, the interesting question is why this seems so hard.
There are some comparisons with the recent UK election, all the opposition have to do is put someone forward who is passably electable, the interesting question is why this seems so hard.
#1811
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: 2020 Election
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...lster-ratings/
#1812
Re: 2020 Election
Every bodies been warned by the experts , but I'm pretty sure the reply will be
"It's all Ukraine's fault "
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ocrats-experts
"It's all Ukraine's fault "
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ocrats-experts
#1813
Re: 2020 Election
Sanders raised nearly $35m last quarter. That's a pretty massive haul.
The prospect of a Trump second term if he's the nominee is a near certainty to me. I can't vote for him.
The prospect of a Trump second term if he's the nominee is a near certainty to me. I can't vote for him.
#1814
Re: 2020 Election
With the age of some of them their running mates should be taken into serious consideration due to the very real possibility that they'll kick the bucket during the next 5 years.
#1815
Re: 2020 Election
Not sure I uderstand. You won't vote for Sanders?
Last edited by kimilseung; Jan 2nd 2020 at 3:11 pm.