civilservant

You don't think his ego will force him to contest the result? I see Trump as all about himself, and the damage inflicted by being a one term President will be too much for him to bare.

He's all ready trying to stop States from ramping up vote by mail, despite there being some evidence that it helps Republicans (or would this time) because of the number of older people not wanting to go to the polls.

carcajou

No, he was prepared to take a landslide drubbing in 2016. He is not very ideological or extreme. He's very transactional. He will sell any principle he has if he thinks he can get a return. He will walk and go build his casino library and maybe try to go back on TV. A far right theocrat Republican, or a far left progressive Democrat, you maybe could convince me would play games. Those people think they have higher purposes and they are making the sacrifice for the greater good and they will be "on the right side of history" etc and when you get that sense of moral infalliability under your wings, that's when trouble starts.

The vote-by-mail games happen every election. Nothing new here.

carcajou

civilservant you are in Georgia, what is the statewide sentiment? Some talk it could flip this year.

civilservant

I'm probably in the wrong part of GA to make an informed statement on that. NE GA (and the county that I live in) went for Trump 92% - 8%. Most people that I talk to think that he's great still and would never vote for a Dem unless Carter ran again.

Former Lancastrian

Simple solution tell them Carter is running.

Giantaxe

Whereas I live in a place where 9% voted for Trump!

Steerpike

It's true that vote by mail has been an issue most elections, but I don't think it's ever been so important to the democratic cause as it is now. Democrats live in overwhelmingly urban areas, and are therefore more likely to encounter crowds at voting centers. Republicans, in contrast, live in rural areas and don't encounter the same crowded voting places. If everyone were concerned equally about social distancing, then logically this affects the democrats more. Further .. it seems compliance with social distancing, and belief in the whole 'science' of the virus (spread) seems to be much higher among democrats. Trump is openly dismissive of masks, lockdowns, etc and that seems to be reflected in his supporters.

The only bright angle on this is that the 'Floyd' demonstrations have clearly demonstrated that democrats are quite willing to forget all about social distancing and virus spread after all ... (and yes, to Ami and possibly others, I do believe that the anti-police, 'black lives matter' supporters are overwhelmingly likely to be democrat voters ...)

nain rouge

Wow, where to begin.

First, you say "Other presidents have constantly attacked, and been attacked by, the press." Other presidents have sparred with the press, but I don't ever recall any other president constantly screaming "FAKE NEWS" and personally insulting individual journalists to their face. Donald has gone beyond sparring, all the way to trying to damage them financially and legislatively with his actions (Twitter).

Secondly, you said "There is ample precedent for the use of the Insurection Act..." and then you mention LBJ. His presidency was a period when even more national strife was occuring than is happening now. His reputation, and the judgement of historians, havs been permanently diminished by the use of troops. You were not in this country during the anti-war protests of the late 1960's (I was). I will always remember the indelible, and infamous, images of troops firing on American students at Kent State University, killing four of them and wounding others. They are images that are in the collective conscious of Americans. Does this somehow validate the use of force today?

Thirdly, you said "This is why it is so important for these things not to get violent." As a rhetorical device you are using the violence in a very few cities as an overall critique of the protest in general. The protests have actually been very peaceful, especially in Washington, D.C. Why are you painting with such a broad brush? How does the peaceful protest in Washington equate to violence in say, Minneapolis, 1,300 miles away? Would it be justified for police to rough up you teenage son or daughter because "some teenagers were acting up" 7 miles away? Maybe the Trump MAGA types should be arested and locked up, because "they have a tendancy to be violent", hmmmm?

nain rouge

I agree with you, Civilservant. Donald is perhaps the most extreme example of a classic narcissist, in the clinical sense. He is pathologically incapable of accepting defeat or admitting failure. He will do EVERYTHING that he can to retain power and claim that the other side is trying to victimize him.

I am afraid that we are all in for a "interesting" next 8 months.

Anian

He will tell other people to contest it for him. If it fails then he hasn't failed, if it gets nasty then he can disavow having anything to do with it.
It's not a cunning plan, it's just how he always does things because he thinks it keeps his hands clean - but everyone with more than two braincells can see through it, especially since he will announce it via twitter if he still has an account.

robtuck

I'm probably in a more "divided" area, just south of Atlanta. Close enough to get a Liberal pull, far enough and small enough to get that old Town feeling with a more rural tinge. A fair amount of expansion has occurred in the near 4 years I have lived here and it's changed in that time. A lot of the newer residents, like me, are implants (although they get to vote and I don't) and by and large seem to be more Progressive in their opinions. I get a real mixed bag of opinions from people when they ask me where I am from, when it comes t Politics.

I'd wager it's probably an Election too soon, but will be very close this time around. It certainly would not surprise me to see it switch to Democrat in 2024 though, Atlanta will gradually have enough of an impact with a few of the other large Urban areas to outweigh the rural sprawl. You might get a switch in one of the Senatorial races though.

UkWinds5353

Trump has a strange strategy for winning reelection. This man has taken a solid economy and allowed a manageable virus outbreak to essentially spread like wildfire nationwide without a federal game plan to coordinate slowing its growth. And for that reason the virus has decimated our national economy that took btw 10 years to build. He has ran up nearly 7 trillion dollars of debt with nothing to show for that expense but decades to come, in paying it off. 100,000s of people have lost their lives thanks to Trump's inability to do the one job every President must, which is to safe guard the country from all foreign threats. All his national security advisors were sounding the alarm to Trump to take this pandemic seriously but it sadly fell on deaf ears because Trump hears one voice only his own. Then his advisors told him not to have those daily briefings because they knew controlling a unplugged Trump would be next to impossible and the residual effects of that brilliant idea resulted in frightened Americans being told to inject themselves with household disinfectant. And if all those blunders aren't bad enough Trump is publicly now against the protection of Americans that are victims of police brutality. When the book is written of what not to do in running for reelection I have a feeling Trump's name might be on the front cover.

P.S., did I mention that Trump attacked a 75 year old from NY saying that he was not really a victim of police brutality but instead was trying to set up the police department? Can't make these Trump stories up! They are material that will be written about for years to come.

MMcD

and now...
He's hitting the campaign trail once again - beginning next Wed 19 June in Tulsa Oklahoma *** (see link below)
Gonna pack 'em in (social distancing be damned).
Adoring, un-masked (?) throngs screaming and yelping - their air-borne droplets floating here, there, everywhere...

It will be interesting to follow the impact of this stunt upon the movement of the poll projections, published today, by The Economist :
https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president


***June 19th salt in wound: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/u...-oklahoma.html

Steerpike

Very nice polling site - I love the way they present the information - one of the best I've ever seen. Good old Economist!

Now, to the content of the charts/etc ... sadly, it's exactly what we saw 4 years ago ... Trump way behind. So this time, I'm not quite ready to say 'whoopee!'

MMcD

Yes...even to someone statistics averse/maths challenged, like me - I found it so simple and clear and...kind of dramatic, each moment in time a preamble to either a this: or a that:

Me neither... reading the latest revelation strikes terror:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...c-protest-duty