2020 Election
#3181
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Nov 2011
Location: Somewhere between Vancouver & St Johns
Posts: 19,849
#3182
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
Re: 2020 Election
Pretty clear that's the strategy, threatening to send in the army being the latest salvo. 2020 certainly has a very 1968 feel to it, except for the fact that Nixon wasn't the incumbent and Johnson decided not to run for a second term.
I don't see how you can compare exit polls to earlier polling.
I don't see how you can compare exit polls to earlier polling.
Last edited by carcajou; Jun 2nd 2020 at 10:13 am.
#3183
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
Re: 2020 Election
There's other parlour tricks that get done too. You really have to be careful when reading polling. Commissioning a poll is a very expensive exercise (think mid-five figures); having something with a large margin of error, say 4%, may sound reasonable but that is very large. A big polling company receiving a big payday, and a large media organisation making that payday, don't need a low-quality poll like that. However - a 4% margin of error allows a media organisation to bark that a 52-48% poll is a "tie" because "it's inside the margin of error."
Sometimes a campaign will deliberately instruct a polling company to put their thumb on the results, often done by messing with the sample (ie a higher or lower Party ID of likely voters than anticipated). Maybe a closer result than expected by someone actually well ahead, in order to shake complacency and goose fundraising, etc.
Sometimes a campaign will deliberately instruct a polling company to put their thumb on the results, often done by messing with the sample (ie a higher or lower Party ID of likely voters than anticipated). Maybe a closer result than expected by someone actually well ahead, in order to shake complacency and goose fundraising, etc.
Last edited by carcajou; Jun 2nd 2020 at 10:23 am.
#3185
I approved this message
Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,425
Re: 2020 Election
How exactly is Trump to blame for what's happening? Because of his Tweets? I'll remind you that local administrations in the US control policing, not the Federal government. I'll also remind you that Minneapolis and every other major city that has faced charges of police brutality and is currently mired in protesting and rioting have been controlled by Democrats for generations. Perhaps you'd argue that the President "sets the tone", in which case I'll also remind you that there were, if anything, more of these types of cases under the Obama administration. I know it's an election year, but not everything that happens in the US is Trump's fault.
#3186
Re: 2020 Election
The fish rots from the head.
I agree that not everything is Trump's fault, and I'm not even especially blaming him for this incident, but I maintain that he is attempting to destroy the Democracy that the Republic was built on.
Roll on November,
I agree that not everything is Trump's fault, and I'm not even especially blaming him for this incident, but I maintain that he is attempting to destroy the Democracy that the Republic was built on.
Roll on November,
#3188
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Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,425
Re: 2020 Election
It's interesting that this is a common refrain among Trump-supporters as well. With some evidence (notably: a historic increase in Executive orders under Obama), they see Obama as someone who tried to "destroy Democracy". Not saying they're right, just that this is more evidence that people live in different realities these days.
#3189
Re: 2020 Election
The fact is that we have got away from the traditional idea of what the Presidency was supposed to be. The powers of the Presidency have expanded so much over the last 100 years that it has little resemblance to what the framers intended.
I am hardly an originialist, but I do not think the Imperial Presidency is good for the citizenry, and I really don't know what the solution would be reign it back in.
I am hardly an originialist, but I do not think the Imperial Presidency is good for the citizenry, and I really don't know what the solution would be reign it back in.
#3190
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: 2020 Election
OK. Even though I disagree with you, that makes more sense.
It's interesting that this is a common refrain among Trump-supporters as well. With some evidence (notably: a historic increase in Executive orders under Obama), they see Obama as someone who tried to "destroy Democracy". Not saying they're right, just that this is more evidence that people live in different realities these days.
It's interesting that this is a common refrain among Trump-supporters as well. With some evidence (notably: a historic increase in Executive orders under Obama), they see Obama as someone who tried to "destroy Democracy". Not saying they're right, just that this is more evidence that people live in different realities these days.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...cutive-orders/
#3191
Re: 2020 Election
How exactly is Trump to blame for what's happening? Because of his Tweets? I'll remind you that local administrations in the US control policing, not the Federal government. I'll also remind you that Minneapolis and every other major city that has faced charges of police brutality and is currently mired in protesting and rioting have been controlled by Democrats for generations. Perhaps you'd argue that the President "sets the tone", in which case I'll also remind you that there were, if anything, more of these types of cases under the Obama administration. I know it's an election year, but not everything that happens in the US is Trump's fault.
#3192
Forum Regular
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 97
Re: 2020 Election
You mean they claim Obama did. The reality is different.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...cutive-orders/
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...cutive-orders/
You're wasting your time with Trump supporters. It simply isn't possible for a rational adult to still support this disgrace without being brainwashed. There is simply nothing that will persuade them. It's obvious to everyone that he is utterly unsuitable for office, but they'll persist with 'but Hillary! but Obama!!' no matter what happens. Anyone still supporting him at this stage, is not going to change their mind. They are just blind to reality.
#3193
Re: 2020 Election
You mean they claim Obama did. The reality is different.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...cutive-orders/
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...cutive-orders/
#3194
Re: 2020 Election
Well, seems like Kamala Harris may now be toast - https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...e-floyd-291063
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-reform-304534
Still hope ?
#3195
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Joined: Dec 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,425
Re: 2020 Election
Your point is valid, in that Trump is not to blame for the cause of what's happening right now; the cop kneeling on the guy's neck is doing that thanks to policies / training / practices /attitudes developed under a variety of different leaders, many of which were Democrat. 'Ferguson' (2014) happened on Obama's watch, as did the root causes of that incident (shooting of Michael Brown). My issue with Trump is how he is reacting to the situation. I expect him to try to be calming, inspirational ... in short, 'Presidential'. Instead, his reaction tends to be inflammatory / divisive; exactly the opposite of what a President should be doing.