2016 Election
#8176
Banned
Joined: Feb 2016
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 348
Re: 2016 Election
Out of interest, do you call them smug liberals, lemmings, sheep, children (or old men/granddads), sycophants, sour pusses and snobs, while simultaneously claiming to know more than they possibly ever could about the US and its food and culture during these mutually respectful discussions?
According to you guac is rank, along with pretty much everyother food popular in the US. Perhaps you should spend less time indulging in shitty sarcasm on the internet and more time working on your palate, it might lighten you up a bit
#8177
I have a comma problem
Joined: Feb 2009
Location: Fox Lake, IL (from Carrickfergus NI)
Posts: 49,598
Re: 2016 Election
Whoops, I forgot you're still mad at me for posting a pic of some homemade guac I made. It was you who said it looked like vomit, wasn't it?
According to you guac is rank, along with pretty much everyother food popular in the US. Perhaps you should spend less time indulging in shitty sarcasm on the internet and more time working on your palate, it might lighten you up a bit
According to you guac is rank, along with pretty much everyother food popular in the US. Perhaps you should spend less time indulging in shitty sarcasm on the internet and more time working on your palate, it might lighten you up a bit
#8178
Return of bouncing girl!
Joined: Sep 2004
Location: The Fourth Reich
Posts: 4,931
Re: 2016 Election
Whoops, I forgot you're still mad at me for posting a pic of some homemade guac I made. It was you who said it looked like vomit, wasn't it?
According to you guac is rank, along with pretty much everyother food popular in the US. Perhaps you should spend less time indulging in shitty sarcasm on the internet and more time working on your palate, it might lighten you up a bit
According to you guac is rank, along with pretty much everyother food popular in the US. Perhaps you should spend less time indulging in shitty sarcasm on the internet and more time working on your palate, it might lighten you up a bit
#8179
Banned
Joined: Feb 2016
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 348
Re: 2016 Election
Genuinely, didn't know what your name was about till a few minutes ago
#8180
I have a comma problem
Joined: Feb 2009
Location: Fox Lake, IL (from Carrickfergus NI)
Posts: 49,598
Re: 2016 Election
I was 34 when that was taken . 37 now. No skin of my nose, I looked 40 when I was 18, so it is what it is.
#8181
Re: 2016 Election
Nate Silver has put up his General Election forecast up
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
It will be interesting to follow this model over time, especially as we go through the conventions and announce VP picks.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
It will be interesting to follow this model over time, especially as we go through the conventions and announce VP picks.
#8183
Re: 2016 Election
Biggest observation for me is this:
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 49.1%
Donald Trump 41.8%
Gary Johnson 7.8%
So if Johnson drops out, they are neck and neck assuming 'most' of Johnson's vote goes to Trump. Maybe that's a bad assumption. Obviously if the 'protest' vote for Johnson either splits evenly or stays at home entirely, things will remain largely unchanged.
#8184
Re: 2016 Election
I've bookmarked the site, and PDF'd the site as it stands today so I can refer back to it.
Biggest observation for me is this:
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 49.1%
Donald Trump 41.8%
Gary Johnson 7.8%
So if Johnson drops out, they are neck and neck assuming 'most' of Johnson's vote goes to Trump. Maybe that's a bad assumption. Obviously if the 'protest' vote for Johnson either splits evenly or stays at home entirely, things will remain largely unchanged.
Biggest observation for me is this:
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 49.1%
Donald Trump 41.8%
Gary Johnson 7.8%
So if Johnson drops out, they are neck and neck assuming 'most' of Johnson's vote goes to Trump. Maybe that's a bad assumption. Obviously if the 'protest' vote for Johnson either splits evenly or stays at home entirely, things will remain largely unchanged.
Much like Obama v Romney which was "a tight race" wasn't really in the end.
#8185
Re: 2016 Election
Meh, national popular vote is great for the media to keep saying "it's neck and neck" but otherwise pointless. How it translates into electoral college votes on a state by state basis is much more important and according to Nate's numbers much more telling.
Much like Obama v Romney which was "a tight race" wasn't really in the end.
Much like Obama v Romney which was "a tight race" wasn't really in the end.
ETA: take AZ, which shows blue on the site, meaning all their Electoral College votes go to Clinton. But if you look at the state breakdown of votes, Clinton has 45%, Trump 44%, and Johnson 8%. If Johnson drops out, and all his votes go to Trump, then Trump wins AZ and gets all the Electoral College vote. In that regard, the 'popular vote' (in the swing states) makes a big difference.
Last edited by Steerpike; Jun 30th 2016 at 6:48 am.
#8186
Return of bouncing girl!
Joined: Sep 2004
Location: The Fourth Reich
Posts: 4,931
Re: 2016 Election
I've bookmarked the site, and PDF'd the site as it stands today so I can refer back to it.
Biggest observation for me is this:
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 49.1%
Donald Trump 41.8%
Gary Johnson 7.8%
So if Johnson drops out, they are neck and neck assuming 'most' of Johnson's vote goes to Trump. Maybe that's a bad assumption. Obviously if the 'protest' vote for Johnson either splits evenly or stays at home entirely, things will remain largely unchanged.
Biggest observation for me is this:
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 49.1%
Donald Trump 41.8%
Gary Johnson 7.8%
So if Johnson drops out, they are neck and neck assuming 'most' of Johnson's vote goes to Trump. Maybe that's a bad assumption. Obviously if the 'protest' vote for Johnson either splits evenly or stays at home entirely, things will remain largely unchanged.
#8187
Re: 2016 Election
Clinton: 42.6%
Trump: 37.0%
Johnson: 7.6%
Stein: 4.3%
RCP averages when Johnson included:
Clinton: 41.9%
Trump: 36.6%
Johnson: 7.9%
RCP averages just Trump vs. Clinton:
Clinton: 44.7%
Trump: 39.8%
Interesting numbers. There isn't much difference between the numbers for Clinton/Trump. I guess there is about 10-15% of people who will vote anyone else but them, or not vote at all.
#8188
Bloody Yank
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: USA! USA!
Posts: 4,186
Re: 2016 Election
But Libertarians don't win that high of a percentage of a vote, either. Johnson was their candidate in 2012, and received 1% of the vote. While it's possible that Trump will bolster the percentage of defectors for this election, I wouldn't count on it.
I would expect many voters to choose between the lesser of two evils, and I would guess that the popular vote will end up being close while the electoral vote will be a landslide for Clinton. What would help the Dems most is if an above-average number of GOP and GOP-leaning voters opt to sit this one out; I would not expect an above-average percentage off of them to defect to a different party, Libertarian or otherwise.
#8190
Return of bouncing girl!
Joined: Sep 2004
Location: The Fourth Reich
Posts: 4,931
Re: 2016 Election
He isn't going to drop out. The Libertarians can be counted on for having a candidate for president.
But Libertarians don't win that high of a percentage of a vote, either. Johnson was their candidate in 2012, and received 1% of the vote. While it's possible that Trump will bolster the percentage of defectors for this election, I wouldn't count on it.
I would expect many voters to choose between the lesser of two evils, and I would guess that the popular vote will end up being close while the electoral vote will be a landslide for Clinton. What would help the Dems most is if an above-average number of GOP and GOP-leaning voters opt to sit this one out; I would not expect an above-average percentage off of them to defect to a different party, Libertarian or otherwise.
But Libertarians don't win that high of a percentage of a vote, either. Johnson was their candidate in 2012, and received 1% of the vote. While it's possible that Trump will bolster the percentage of defectors for this election, I wouldn't count on it.
I would expect many voters to choose between the lesser of two evils, and I would guess that the popular vote will end up being close while the electoral vote will be a landslide for Clinton. What would help the Dems most is if an above-average number of GOP and GOP-leaning voters opt to sit this one out; I would not expect an above-average percentage off of them to defect to a different party, Libertarian or otherwise.
I'm concerned that everyone is underestimating the number of Sanders supporters who are very anti-Clinton.