2016 Election

Old Jun 29th 2016, 6:33 pm
  #8176  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by Wintersong
Out of interest, do you call them smug liberals, lemmings, sheep, children (or old men/granddads), sycophants, sour pusses and snobs, while simultaneously claiming to know more than they possibly ever could about the US and its food and culture during these mutually respectful discussions?
Whoops, I forgot you're still mad at me for posting a pic of some homemade guac I made. It was you who said it looked like vomit, wasn't it?

According to you guac is rank, along with pretty much everyother food popular in the US. Perhaps you should spend less time indulging in shitty sarcasm on the internet and more time working on your palate, it might lighten you up a bit
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Old Jun 29th 2016, 6:34 pm
  #8177  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by themadpooper
Whoops, I forgot you're still mad at me for posting a pic of some homemade guac I made. It was you who said it looked like vomit, wasn't it?

According to you guac is rank, along with pretty much everyother food popular in the US. Perhaps you should spend less time indulging in shitty sarcasm on the internet and more time working on your palate, it might lighten you up a bit
Mexican food. Now we're on common ground
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Old Jun 29th 2016, 6:36 pm
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by themadpooper
Whoops, I forgot you're still mad at me for posting a pic of some homemade guac I made. It was you who said it looked like vomit, wasn't it?

According to you guac is rank, along with pretty much everyother food popular in the US. Perhaps you should spend less time indulging in shitty sarcasm on the internet and more time working on your palate, it might lighten you up a bit
Nope, it wasn't me. But there you go again, proving everyone's points.
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Old Jun 29th 2016, 6:43 pm
  #8179  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing
I'm in my 30s, too. Presumably you had parents, though. I refuse to believe you didn't previously know about one of the better known singles of one of the UK's biggest groups though.
I assumed you to be substantially older judging by your avatar, no offence

Genuinely, didn't know what your name was about till a few minutes ago
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Old Jun 29th 2016, 6:50 pm
  #8180  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by themadpooper
I assumed you to be substantially older judging by your avatar, no offence

Genuinely, didn't know what your name was about till a few minutes ago
I was 34 when that was taken . 37 now. No skin of my nose, I looked 40 when I was 18, so it is what it is.
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Old Jun 29th 2016, 10:58 pm
  #8181  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Nate Silver has put up his General Election forecast up

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

It will be interesting to follow this model over time, especially as we go through the conventions and announce VP picks.
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Old Jun 30th 2016, 1:43 am
  #8182  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by Steerpike
Interesting background!
And interesting how so many of these anti-Clinton claims fall apart at the seams when confronted with actual facts.
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Old Jun 30th 2016, 5:53 am
  #8183  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by sir_eccles
Nate Silver has put up his General Election forecast up

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

It will be interesting to follow this model over time, especially as we go through the conventions and announce VP picks.
I've bookmarked the site, and PDF'd the site as it stands today so I can refer back to it.


Biggest observation for me is this:
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 49.1%
Donald Trump 41.8%
Gary Johnson 7.8%


So if Johnson drops out, they are neck and neck assuming 'most' of Johnson's vote goes to Trump. Maybe that's a bad assumption. Obviously if the 'protest' vote for Johnson either splits evenly or stays at home entirely, things will remain largely unchanged.
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Old Jun 30th 2016, 6:38 am
  #8184  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by Steerpike
I've bookmarked the site, and PDF'd the site as it stands today so I can refer back to it.


Biggest observation for me is this:
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 49.1%
Donald Trump 41.8%
Gary Johnson 7.8%


So if Johnson drops out, they are neck and neck assuming 'most' of Johnson's vote goes to Trump. Maybe that's a bad assumption. Obviously if the 'protest' vote for Johnson either splits evenly or stays at home entirely, things will remain largely unchanged.
Meh, national popular vote is great for the media to keep saying "it's neck and neck" but otherwise pointless. How it translates into electoral college votes on a state by state basis is much more important and according to Nate's numbers much more telling.

Much like Obama v Romney which was "a tight race" wasn't really in the end.
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Old Jun 30th 2016, 6:40 am
  #8185  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by sir_eccles
Meh, national popular vote is great for the media to keep saying "it's neck and neck" but otherwise pointless. How it translates into electoral college votes on a state by state basis is much more important and according to Nate's numbers much more telling.

Much like Obama v Romney which was "a tight race" wasn't really in the end.
So lets ignore 'popular' vote. How do we predict what happens if Johnson is not in the race?


ETA: take AZ, which shows blue on the site, meaning all their Electoral College votes go to Clinton. But if you look at the state breakdown of votes, Clinton has 45%, Trump 44%, and Johnson 8%. If Johnson drops out, and all his votes go to Trump, then Trump wins AZ and gets all the Electoral College vote. In that regard, the 'popular vote' (in the swing states) makes a big difference.

Last edited by Steerpike; Jun 30th 2016 at 6:48 am.
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Old Jun 30th 2016, 6:50 am
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by Steerpike
I've bookmarked the site, and PDF'd the site as it stands today so I can refer back to it.


Biggest observation for me is this:
Popular Vote:
Hillary Clinton 49.1%
Donald Trump 41.8%
Gary Johnson 7.8%


So if Johnson drops out, they are neck and neck assuming 'most' of Johnson's vote goes to Trump. Maybe that's a bad assumption. Obviously if the 'protest' vote for Johnson either splits evenly or stays at home entirely, things will remain largely unchanged.
I'd be interested to know if Jill Stein's potential vote is factored in. I'm guessing she's likely to take far more votes away from Clinton than from Trump, but have no idea how many it would likely be and whether or not it would ultimately have any effect.
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Old Jun 30th 2016, 2:51 pm
  #8187  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by Wintersong
I'd be interested to know if Jill Stein's potential vote is factored in. I'm guessing she's likely to take far more votes away from Clinton than from Trump, but have no idea how many it would likely be and whether or not it would ultimately have any effect.
RCP averages when Johnson and Stein included:

Clinton: 42.6%
Trump: 37.0%
Johnson: 7.6%
Stein: 4.3%

RCP averages when Johnson included:
Clinton: 41.9%
Trump: 36.6%
Johnson: 7.9%

RCP averages just Trump vs. Clinton:
Clinton: 44.7%
Trump: 39.8%

Interesting numbers. There isn't much difference between the numbers for Clinton/Trump. I guess there is about 10-15% of people who will vote anyone else but them, or not vote at all.
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Old Jun 30th 2016, 3:44 pm
  #8188  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by Steerpike
So lets ignore 'popular' vote. How do we predict what happens if Johnson is not in the race?
He isn't going to drop out. The Libertarians can be counted on for having a candidate for president.

But Libertarians don't win that high of a percentage of a vote, either. Johnson was their candidate in 2012, and received 1% of the vote. While it's possible that Trump will bolster the percentage of defectors for this election, I wouldn't count on it.

I would expect many voters to choose between the lesser of two evils, and I would guess that the popular vote will end up being close while the electoral vote will be a landslide for Clinton. What would help the Dems most is if an above-average number of GOP and GOP-leaning voters opt to sit this one out; I would not expect an above-average percentage off of them to defect to a different party, Libertarian or otherwise.
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Old Jun 30th 2016, 3:50 pm
  #8189  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by zargof

Interesting numbers. There isn't much difference between the numbers for Clinton/Trump. I guess there is about 10-15% of people who will vote anyone else but them, or not vote at all.
Thanks for that - I think you're most likely right.
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Old Jun 30th 2016, 3:54 pm
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by RoadWarriorFromLP
He isn't going to drop out. The Libertarians can be counted on for having a candidate for president.

But Libertarians don't win that high of a percentage of a vote, either. Johnson was their candidate in 2012, and received 1% of the vote. While it's possible that Trump will bolster the percentage of defectors for this election, I wouldn't count on it.

I would expect many voters to choose between the lesser of two evils, and I would guess that the popular vote will end up being close while the electoral vote will be a landslide for Clinton. What would help the Dems most is if an above-average number of GOP and GOP-leaning voters opt to sit this one out; I would not expect an above-average percentage off of them to defect to a different party, Libertarian or otherwise.

I'm concerned that everyone is underestimating the number of Sanders supporters who are very anti-Clinton.
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