The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
Jun 30th 2016, 3:45 am
#166
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
Lower valued currency would be good in the long run for British economy. More tourism, more exports less imports. The British economy needs reform, this may be the catalyst. If managed properly there's no reason why Britain could not become another Switzerland which incidentally has the highest standard of living in Europe.
Jun 30th 2016, 4:40 am
#167
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: Portlandia Metro
Posts: 7,425
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
I thought the UK was a net importer not exporter.
Jun 30th 2016, 5:14 am
#169
Bloody Yank
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: USA! USA!
Posts: 4,186
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
Yeah, capital flight would be just awesome!
Er, you think that the Swiss franc got to the place that it is today by scaring the hell out of markets and having a government that delivers populist-fueled instability?
Er, you think that the Swiss franc got to the place that it is today by scaring the hell out of markets and having a government that delivers populist-fueled instability?
Jun 30th 2016, 5:23 am
#170
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 429
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
No, it got that way by holding referendums on all major issues and the political class respecting the vote. England could stand to use a lot more referendums.
Jun 30th 2016, 5:29 am
#171
Bloody Yank
Joined: Oct 2005
Location: USA! USA!
Posts: 4,186
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
In any case, Brexit is probably not going to happen, so you'll have plenty to complain about.
Jun 30th 2016, 5:51 am
#172
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
If a Swiss-style referendum had been held on Brexit it would have failed as constitutional amendments in Switzerland require a double majority, namely of the popular vote and of the cantons. Given Scotland and Northern Ireland voted against and England and Wales for, there was no such majority of "cantons".
Jul 1st 2016, 12:44 am
#173
Grumpy Know-it-all
Joined: Jul 2010
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 8,928
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
As far as Switzerland goes, bear in mind they're in a real shambles at the moment with the EU because they voted in a referendum to leave Schengen which violates the agreements they have with the EU. The EU is insisting the Swiss reverse the referendum as it violates the freedom of movement obviously which is part of the EU Bill of Rights, codified in the Lisbon Treaty.
These are the reasons why the EU won't back down on freedom of movement when it comes to the UK. Legally they can't, and if they could it would undermine their position with the Swiss.
Anyway getting back to the exchange rate, you may think it suck but it's going to suck much harder a few months from now. Taxes will probably go up, which reduces the money supply, so the BoE will have to lower interest rates, if it doesn't have to do it anyway to shore up the economy. When that happens, Sterling will go down further.
These are the reasons why the EU won't back down on freedom of movement when it comes to the UK. Legally they can't, and if they could it would undermine their position with the Swiss.
Anyway getting back to the exchange rate, you may think it suck but it's going to suck much harder a few months from now. Taxes will probably go up, which reduces the money supply, so the BoE will have to lower interest rates, if it doesn't have to do it anyway to shore up the economy. When that happens, Sterling will go down further.
Jul 1st 2016, 12:45 am
#174
Grumpy Know-it-all
Joined: Jul 2010
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 8,928
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
It will happen, but it will effectively be in name only. The idea that there is going to be some seismic shift in the law is way overblown. It will end up being like Switzerland but with a bit more integration. I.e. Norway without membership of the EEA council.
Jul 3rd 2016, 5:47 am
#175
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Apr 2014
Location: Lauren's Co. SC by way of Palmetto, Florida
Posts: 3,265
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
Someone pointed out that the market reaction to all this is just that, a reaction of shock at the decision. Whereas the market reaction to the recent housing crash was more to do with fundamental monetary issues. At this point there are no actual monetary issues, no mis-sold mortgages etc. So just fear and uncertainty of what is to come. As you say when art 50 is invoked there may be another reaction.
...and as to the matter of all those Polish bus drivers, would someone care to remind me where it was that the Saxons came from?
Jul 5th 2016, 3:30 pm
#176
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Milwaukie, Oregon
Posts: 9,965
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
Some comments by the Governor of the BoE and the pound is at $1.3041 still heading south.
Jul 5th 2016, 9:17 pm
#177
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jul 2008
Location: Portlandia Metro
Posts: 7,425
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
I was wrong in 1985 it got down to $1.054502 , I was surprised.
Last edited by mrken30; Jul 5th 2016 at 9:22 pm.
Jul 6th 2016, 1:21 am
#178
Grumpy Know-it-all
Joined: Jul 2010
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Posts: 8,928
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
It's going to keep going down. I won't be surprised when it hits $1.20 Huge capital flight going on. And also USD is seen as being a safe harbour.
But the talk about a recession was "project fear" and "absolute rubbish".
But the talk about a recession was "project fear" and "absolute rubbish".
Jul 7th 2016, 2:23 pm
#179
Banned
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 18
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
What background proof do you have that the pound will fall even further Steve?
Does anyone know of a way to alley the impact on our UK future pensions until the quid stabilizes?
PS, l'm officially a pensioner next January, & because l'm a rich basterd!
(not really, but l have enough to tide me over) l'm strongly considering deferring my UK pension for 3yrs so it will yield a bigger monthly payment.
(I know if l die early l lose out, but l plan on getting into 3 figures like my Gran did!)
Jul 7th 2016, 3:47 pm
#180
Heading for Poppyland
Joined: Jul 2007
Location: North Norfolk and northern New York State
Posts: 14,540
Re: The £/$ fall to 1.33 in the wake of the referendum.
Hello & "mine's a pint" from a fellow Grumpy Northern Git!
What background proof do you have that the pound will fall even further Steve?
Does anyone know of a way to alley the impact on our UK future pensions until the quid stabilizes?
PS, l'm officially a pensioner next January, & because l'm a rich basterd!
(not really, but l have enough to tide me over) l'm strongly considering deferring my UK pension for 3yrs so it will yield a bigger monthly payment.
(I know if l die early l lose out, but l plan on getting into 3 figures like my Gran did!)
What background proof do you have that the pound will fall even further Steve?
Does anyone know of a way to alley the impact on our UK future pensions until the quid stabilizes?
PS, l'm officially a pensioner next January, & because l'm a rich basterd!
(not really, but l have enough to tide me over) l'm strongly considering deferring my UK pension for 3yrs so it will yield a bigger monthly payment.
(I know if l die early l lose out, but l plan on getting into 3 figures like my Gran did!)
I'm with you on the British state pension. I'm putting off claiming it, parly through procrastination and partly to get the higher payment.
