bakedbean

Any thoughts? Thaksin is supposed to be good for expats isn't he? Ahem... I mean she

Is there going to be upheaval? What's everyone think?

Claudia1

In my humble opinion, Thailand now faces massive upheaval which will significantly impact the economy.

Incidentally, my husband & I previously considered Thailand as a retirement option. However, our net conclusion was that we risked a 25% - 50% fall in asset prices if things turned ugly.

Claudia

bakedbean

I just don't know Claudia. People have been saying this for years but they've had God knows how many coups now and, during the time we were living there, all sorts of crap - yellow shirts, red shirts, da de da de da, but the Thai Baht just got stronger and stronger, and still is I think.

I wonder if Nonthaburi will give us his thoughts (Could do with one of those Facebook Poke buttons on here)

Claudia1

My husband is an economist & quite proficient in determining country risk. He feels its all now finally coming to a head in Thailand & rates the medium term risk extremely high. Its certainly highly inadvisable to invest in any fixed assets.

Claudia

nonthaburi

Very broad question this. What is good for expats ? There are many kinds of expats living in Thailand. If we look at what happened when Thaksin 1 came round , he had a moral order campaign, hence the war on drugs and the crackdown on opening and closing times for bars and clubs. thailand used to be a 24 hour drinking place and then it all changed. So if you were a party animal expat with a booze habit then Thaksin wasn't so good.
However he did do a lot for the business side of Thailand and the Thai economy thrived under Thaiksin. So if you were running any kind of business here then it was a good time to do it. Plus his best policy IMO which was the 30 baht healthcare scheme which , in effect an NHS , meant that any Thai could get medical treatment in their home province for 30 baht. Many expats have families here and this would have made a difference ti their pocket too. And it still does. Both my kids were born here at minimal cost in a government hospital. My wife had some dental work done for free not long ago. This and the 1 million baht one village scheme are the two main reasons why Thaksin was and still is loved and revered by many.
He was also a very clever man who simply played the numbers game on the votes. 35% of the population lives or is from Isaan. Get them in your pocket and deliver and your halfway to being PM.
Regarding the Thai baht and the recent worl economice crisis. If you look at the Asian crisis in 97 the banks here got hit very hard and the pound was 97 at one time. They learned theor lesson at to put it simply thay haven't been lending moey where they shouldn't have done. The Thai stock market has also doubled in value in the past ten years. This is why the Thai baht is the way it is.
So what happens now ? Difficult to say. Previosly I though that Abbhisit was going to win but now I just don't know. I honestly don't think it will make a lot of difference to us expats who is in power. We can't vote after all so who cares. Governments come and go quite regularly here so I'm not really that bothered. Remember PM Samak having to resign because he had a cooking show on TV. Crazy country.
What does concern me though is what happens when the big man at the top dies. Then there might be trouble.

bakedbean

I didn't realise the Thai stock market had doubled... geez, we should've bought stocks and shares instead of a villa, heh heh.

Yeh I guess I was thinking of expats from an economic/business aspect. Mr T was good at that, wasn't he. I'm hoping that someone might change the property taxes before we flog our house. They did some Special Offers at one time - so very Thai.

nonthaburi

yeah, it's quite strange, but if you had said to someone ten years ago to get all their cash out of western companies and to put it into the Thai stock market you would have got some strange looks.
Still think property is a good investment here, if it's in the right place. The same goes anywhere I suppose and a lot would depend on who your buyer is.

Double edged sword with THaksin though, he was good for the country in a lot of ways but he was also very bad. I mean they're all corrupt but he went a bit too far . Plus a lot of innocent people ending up dead in his war on drugs and his handling of the crisis in the South left a lot to be desired.

I just hope that whatever the election result , the people accept it. Red or yellow.

Claudia1

As you correctly imply, could well be massive upheaval when big man goes plus so many other flash points which must finally come to a head in short/medium term. Incidentally, we have friends who have been trying to sell their luxury holiday villa for over 3 years & no luck despite aggressively reducing price 5 times ! Have now given up & trying to rent out long term.

Claudia

nonthaburi

Guess we'll just have to wait and see. There was a poll in the BKK Post yesterday that put Yingluck getting over 200 seats but not enough to form an overall majority , so in that case she would have to make a coalition with some of the smaller parties.

Think your friends are a bit unlucky over the villa. Maybe the location isn't so good or people just aren't buying too many luxury holiday villas at the moment.

bakedbean

We've been told by agents in Phuket that the Low End and the Very Top End (I mean 50 Million baht+ ) have some movement. Everything else in between is a difficult market. Lots of Russians buying apparently.

Thankfully, with our property, we can afford to wait if we have to. Nothing owing on it. Would much rather have a property in Thailand than UK or Euroland where the currencies are imploding. The amount of debt in European countries now.... geez... quite unbelievable. Anyway, a bit orf topic heh heh.

Claudia1

Unfortunately, significantly greater risk of property/currency crash in Thailand compared to UK etc with the myriad of inevitable issues coming to a head, including passing of big man. Investors are already factoring these in.

Claudia

nonthaburi

I suppose a lot of it depends on the reasons you buy and where you buy it. When I built a house in Thailand I didn't buy it to make a quick buck. I did it so that when I died my children would have land and a house , just like my parents have done.

You also have to factor in that Thais like to buy new when it comes to property. just look at all these new estates popping up all over the place. Why would someone buy second hand when they can buy new for the same price.

Got to laugh when you talk about property / currency crashes seeing how the economies of western Europe are totally f@$ked. I saw on the BBc the other day that the UK ecomoy is predicted to grow at about 0.5% in the coming year. not exactly thriving. Thailand on the other hand is humming along at about 6% I believe.

When it comes to investors ( read gamblers ) losing money on stocks and shares , and banks going under through bad loans, I don't have a lot of sympathy really. It's all fools gold IMO. Give me real gold anyday.

Incidentally the price of gold at the moment is 22,000 for one baht. Only three years ago it was 7,000. Now that was a good investment !

Claudia1

Clearly, you have sensibly bought for exactly the right reasons based on a very long term strategy. So, there is minimal risk involved - well done. On the other hand, NZ people we know bought about 3 - 4 years ago on a whim & then decided within a year it was not for them - how very foolish some people can be.

Claudia

bakedbean

Yes a lot of people don't get it in Europe. We ditched our Sterling a few years back and very glad that we did. Wouldn't catch me holding any Euro or Sterling assets at the moment.

Claudia1

Entirely agree with you that gold is excellent hedge for uncertain times & recently one of the best performing asset classes. Wish we had bought more.

Now hope you may forgive me BUT a difficult question - what do you see as worst realistic scenario re Thailand over the coming 3 - 24 months with all the tensions finally boiling over plus passing of big man ??

Claudia