UK v EU

Old Jan 22nd 2021, 3:48 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
Maybe not a substantial formal movement quite yet but there's certainly a lot of popular support for the notion both sides of the border. Much stronger in the south but not far shy of half in the north, which is more than actively support remaining separate.

I would expect that to grow as the effects of Brexit on NI begin to be felt and the Covid interlude will probably also add a bit. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if there are strong calls for a referendum within the decade, especially if the Tories hold sway again at the next UK election.
There has always been 'popular' support for a united Ireland but I don't see why Brexit should increase it. It is easy to make predictions, particularly ten years hence!
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 4:08 pm
  #17  
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by yellowroom View Post
I think "failure" is a strong term, and is not one I'd use. Both will change and evolve over time as nations/states do. I can sadly see a loosening of the ties that bind the four home nations in the UK without some kind of major shift to bring us back together. I can foresee NI thowing in its lot with Dublin within the next ten years to be honest, and Scotland to leave in that time frame. As a northern english person I feel strongly that the current Westminster government does not understand the lives of people where I live at all and disregards us totally when making decisions and I imagine that feeling magnified tenfold for the Scots and NornIrish.

On the plus side, I think people are turning away from centralism towards more localism, so maybe as a positive we could get more Regional government which would suit Yorkshire, Cornwall etc. Covid has reminded us all how powerful local communities can be when we act together, I'd like to see that continue.

As for the EU, I concur with Watchpost - as long as France and Germany are at the core of the EU, it will continue. The horror of WW2 is still deep in their memories and there is a strong commitment towards "never again".
Should a 'Union' such as the EU have a "core"? Will France and Germany always be at the 'front'---There are wo countries already actively dissenting on many areas (staying for the money!).
It will be interesting to see how the successor to Chancellor Merkel fares---although the success of M. Macron in the next election is in some doubt.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 4:17 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
There has always been 'popular' support for a united Ireland but I don't see why Brexit should increase it.
For the simple reason that Brexit has placed a border between NI and GB.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 4:23 pm
  #19  
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Should a 'Union' such as the EU have a "core"?
Why not? Many, if not most things do, especially successful things.
The only England football team to win a world cup had a West Ham core. The most successful International team - Spain - had a core of Barcelona players. The great Milan team, a core of Dutchmen.
The UK government a core of Old Etonians....oh, wait, we're talking successful
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 4:25 pm
  #20  
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Should a 'Union' such as the EU have a "core"?'
Should it have a core? It's not a matter of 'should', it's a matter of does. And it's two most successful and influential members will be the core, whether they're France and Germany, or Portugal and Poland if they were the most successful and influential.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 4:30 pm
  #21  
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
There has always been 'popular' support for a united Ireland but I don't see why Brexit should increase it. It is easy to make predictions, particularly ten years hence!
NI voted to remain, a lot of people are unhappy that the leave voters of England didn't care about the legal implications that reintroducing a border would have on the Good Friday Agreement and the peace that has held. NI is now in a bizarre between-land legally, where it remains in the CU so there are customs and checks in goods going between the mainland and NI, but not between NI and Ireland. And the difficulties in shipping goods from mainland GB to NI are resulting in empty shelves in some shops. The people of NI are going to end up doing a lot more business via Dublin and than London, so I can see a point coming where people accept it would be easier to be with them than GB.

Last edited by yellowroom; Jan 22nd 2021 at 6:07 pm. Reason: typo fix so last sentence makes more sense
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 6:04 pm
  #22  
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by yellowroom View Post
NI voted to remain, a lot of people are unhappy that the leave voters of England didn't care about the legal implications that reintroducing a border would have on the Good Friday Agreement and the peace that has held. NI is now in a bizarre between-land legally, where it remains in the CU so there are customs and checks in goods going between the mainland and NI, but not between NI and Ireland. And the difficulties in shipping goods from mainland GB to NI are resulting in empty shelves in some shops. The people of NI are going to end up doing a lot more business via Dublin and London, so I can see a point coming where people accept it would be easier to be with them than GB.
History: it's there for generations to learn from, but these can be hard lessons.
The island of Ireland is full of people, north and south, who proudly identify themselves as irish.
When I lived in the UK I identified anyone from whichever side of the border as irish. I didn't discriminate. Even though some from the north might identify themselves as british, that's not how I saw them, and I would have expected many in the UK to have had the same feeling as myself.
This influences how I viewed 'The Troubles'. It seemed to me that it was always that irish was fighting irish and was difficult to understand. Of course I realised that there were religious and political undertones driving events but I also realised that sooner or later the two communities would need to assimilate and that NI would need to leave the UK, it just made common sense.
Brexit will have accelerated this need to rationalise what is an unstable situation. Brexit has has brought with it a mechansm that has demonstrably placed NI as a semi-detached part of the UK and it will soon become clear that the difficulties thrown up by the diplomatic fix and debacle that defines NI trading links are not sustainable in the longer term.
To my mind it makes common sense for NI to become a devolved part of Eire and a member of the EU.
But will this actually come to pass?
It'll be difficult politically but given a year or so of difficult trading and I fully expect the question of a unification referendum to gather pace, all it needs is for the question to be asked.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 6:14 pm
  #23  
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by dave_j View Post
History: it's there for generations to learn from, but these can be hard lessons.
The island of Ireland is full of people, north and south, who proudly identify themselves as irish.
When I lived in the UK I identified anyone from whichever side of the border as irish. I didn't discriminate. Even though some from the north might identify themselves as british, that's not how I saw them, and I would have expected many in the UK to have had the same feeling as myself.
This influences how I viewed 'The Troubles'. It seemed to me that it was always that irish was fighting irish and was difficult to understand. Of course I realised that there were religious and political undertones driving events but I also realised that sooner or later the two communities would need to assimilate and that NI would need to leave the UK, it just made common sense.
Brexit will have accelerated this need to rationalise what is an unstable situation. Brexit has has brought with it a mechansm that has demonstrably placed NI as a semi-detached part of the UK and it will soon become clear that the difficulties thrown up by the diplomatic fix and debacle that defines NI trading links are not sustainable in the longer term.
To my mind it makes common sense for NI to become a devolved part of Eire and a member of the EU.
But will this actually come to pass?
It'll be difficult politically but given a year or so of difficult trading and I fully expect the question of a unification referendum to gather pace, all it needs is for the question to be asked.
I think you're exactly right - NI will devolve further away from GB to the point of independence, and the common connections plus the the EU rules will draw a united Ireland closer. Farage will have achieved more than Sinn Fein ever did.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 6:53 pm
  #24  
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by yellowroom View Post
I think you're exactly right - NI will devolve further away from GB to the point of independence, and the common connections plus the the EU rules will draw a united Ireland closer. Farage will have achieved more than Sinn Fein ever did.
Farage may have been an unwitting instrument for irish re-unification, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. The IRA, or some such organisation, would always have arisen given the existing politics and, let's face it, the attitude of many 'loyalists' towards catholics up until quite recent times and what was really an artificial separation of what used to be a united ireland.
I remember as a young man meeting two catholics from NI and being shocked at the tales they told me, tales that then never seemed to reach the mainstream news, but then I was quite insular in those days.
I've often thought that if only politicians could meet and leave politics outside the room, then common sense might get a look in, but I also realise that that's not what they're about... but sometimes, just sometimes they get coerced against their better nature into doing the right thing.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 7:04 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by dave_j View Post
Farage may have been an unwitting instrument for irish re-unification, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. The IRA, or some such organisation, would always have arisen given the existing politics and, let's face it, the attitude of many 'loyalists' towards catholics up until quite recent times and what was really an artificial separation of what used to be a united ireland.
I remember as a young man meeting two catholics from NI and being shocked at the tales they told me, tales that then never seemed to reach the mainstream news, but then I was quite insular in those days.
I've often thought that if only politicians could meet and leave politics outside the room, then common sense might get a look in, but I also realise that that's not what they're about... but sometimes, just sometimes they get coerced against their better nature into doing the right thing.
Being English, I've generally thought I my opinion doesn't matter on this other than abhorring the violence and thinking that the people of NI have a right to self-determination, whatever direction or form that took, and the rest of GB should honour that if/when the day comes that they wish to break the Union. Same with Scotland - I don't want them to go but they have the right to decide their future in the event of another IndyRef.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 7:22 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by yellowroom View Post
Being English, I've generally thought I my opinion doesn't matter on this other than abhorring the violence and thinking that the people of NI have a right to self-determination, whatever direction or form that took, and the rest of GB should honour that if/when the day comes that they wish to break the Union. Same with Scotland - I don't want them to go but they have the right to decide their future in the event of another IndyRef.
I agree, and should NI, Wales or Scotland decide to leave the UK I don't think we'd witness the degree of resentment that's currently existing between the EU and UK, it would be an acceptance of simple fact. Perhaps speaking the same language helps as would the close intermingling that's prevented inter state conflict for a few hundred years, we shall see.
Of course none of this would prevent the likes of Rangers and Celtic reaching for the knuckle dusters as usual, it's what they do.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 7:52 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
It is easy to make predictions, particularly ten years hence!
I wish you'd make your mind up.

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
Anyone with half a brain cell should understand that no-one knows what is going to happen in the future.
Although admittedly I'm not one of those with as little as half a brain cell, for whom making sense of current affairs must be very complicated.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 7:55 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
Maybe not a substantial formal movement quite yet but there's certainly a lot of popular support for the notion both sides of the border. Much stronger in the south but not far shy of half in the north, which is more than actively support remaining separate.

I would expect that to grow as the effects of Brexit on NI begin to be felt and the Covid interlude will probably also add a bit. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if there are strong calls for a referendum within the decade, especially if the Tories hold sway again at the next UK election.

Not only that, but the percentage of Protestants vs Catholics in the North is changing. Prods are getting smaller.
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 7:56 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Not only that, but the percentage of Protestants vs Catholics in the North is changing. Prods are getting smaller.
Catholics more fecund?
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Old Jan 22nd 2021, 7:57 pm
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Default Re: UK v EU

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
Catholics more fecund?

I wasn't going to go there, but....
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