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-   -   Tories in chaos (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/tories-chaos-897875/)

DaveLovesDee Jun 13th 2017 12:45 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing (Post 12271281)
Honestly, I don't really know.

Traditionally, it was the Ulster Unionists who were the largest party in NI, with the SDLP the next largest and then the rest fell in behind them. In the early 2000s, the DUP took over as the largest part and Sinn Fein have been growing steadily in support since the 90s.

I'd suggest following the money, but NI election law allows the funding sources to be kept secret.


Under Northern Ireland’s electoral laws, political donations do not need to be publicly declared, a legacy from the region’s Troubles, when funding a political party might make someone a target for terrorists.

mikelincs Jun 13th 2017 2:54 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 
I see that the Tories are now meeting with Labour to discuss a softer Brexit than they would have liked to have negotiated if they had had a majority.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/conservati...112408461.html

macliam Jun 13th 2017 7:23 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12272024)
I'd suggest following the money, but NI election law allows the funding sources to be kept secret.

Voting in the North is tribal - and the tribes have migrated to their most extreme champions. However, the troubles were not caused by the DUP, but by almost 50 years of UUP dominance, which stifled any change at all. At least the DUP don't pretend to be a "normal" party whilst acting on sectarian lines (or if they try, they fail). The SDLP, like the Redmondite nationalists in the South, stayed non-confrontational and within the law so got nowhere despite all their efforts. The divergence is understandable.

The North always had its own laws and its own ways of doing things. If they claim to be part of the UK they should abide by the same laws, but devolution has muddied the waters. However, some things could be brought into line with the rest of the UK, but aren't. e.g. the criminalization of abortion, which has now been accepted as a Human Rights issue and not medical (and therefore devolved). Nothing has yet been done to stop women being prosecuted in NI ..... and under the present cosy arrangement, I doubt it will change any time soon.

Red Eric Jun 13th 2017 7:33 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by mikelincs (Post 12272123)
I see that the Tories are now meeting with Labour to discuss a softer Brexit than they would have liked to have negotiated if they had had a majority.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/conservati...112408461.html

But.....but.....didn't someone say that by handing them a stonking majority they could see off the hard Brexiters and get the softest of all possible Brexits?

Damn good thing we didn't believe that, eh?

SultanOfSwing Jun 13th 2017 8:40 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by macliam (Post 12272353)
Voting in the North is tribal - and the tribes have migrated to their most extreme champions.

It's completely ****ed. Nationalists (Irish nationalism, not the cancerous far-right bullshit that has taken over the US and UK of late) for some reason think Sinn Fein guarantees them a united Ireland and Loyalists are scared for the same reason. They are both wrong. Irish reunification requires a referendum before it can even be considered. Sinn Fein might bring NI closer to that referendum but it is my understanding that it won't even be called unless it's certain the motion will carry.

Whereas in reality there are moderate parties on both sides of the divide. Centre-right nationalists (and unionists for that matter) should vote SDLP, or more traditionally conservative unionists have the UUP. Progressives and centre-left leaning voters on both sides of the cultural divide have Alliance, the Greens or People Before Profit.

There does exist a Progressive Unionist Party for left-leaning unionists but they have strong ties to the UVF. That being said, the DUP have pretty well known ties to the UDA and yet they have 10 ****ing seats in Parliament.

I'm not even sure I consider myself a unionist anymore after Brexit and all this mess.

macliam Jun 13th 2017 9:27 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing (Post 12272417)
It's completely ****ed. Nationalists (Irish nationalism, not the cancerous far-right bullshit that has taken over the US and UK of late) for some reason think Sinn Fein guarantees them a united Ireland and Loyalists are scared for the same reason. They are both wrong. Irish reunification requires a referendum before it can even be considered. Sinn Fein might bring NI closer to that referendum but it is my understanding that it won't even be called unless it's certain the motion will carry.

Not just in the North! Sinn Féin's "Éire Nua" federal Ireland required the dissolution of the Republic too .... to form four federal provinces. Although that has been "dropped" as an official proposal, you can be sure that the constitition, if not the entire structure of the Republic would need to change.

As for the loyalists, I understand them being scared - they've been fed horror stories for so many years..... and becoming a minority in a bigger state isn't on their agenda. Even if all 9 counties of Ulster were counted together as one province, the numbers game would be "interesting" (which is, of course, why the British ceded the other 3 counties to the Free State in the first place).

Still, that's for another day....... and off topic ;)

SultanOfSwing Jun 13th 2017 9:46 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by macliam (Post 12272448)
Not just in the North! Sinn Féin's "Éire Nua" federal Ireland required the dissolution of the Republic too .... to form four federal provinces. Although that has been "dropped" as an official proposal, you can be sure that the constitition, if not the entire structure of the Republic would need to change.

I was always led to believe they were more of a fringe party in the ROI, though. I know they've been growing in relevance with their growth in NI over the last 10-15 years.

"Éire Nua" was the one that had Athlone as the new capital, wasn't it? Doubt Dublin would like that.

That being said, I have heard that there would be support for an 'Ulster identity' of sorts in a 'new Ireland', and that there is actually a lot of opposition to a UI in the likes of Galway and Cork as the Dublin-Belfast corridor in such an Ireland would surge in relevance based on proximity to, and trade with, the UK.


Originally Posted by macliam (Post 12272448)
As for the loyalists, I understand them being scared - they've been fed horror stories for so many years..... and becoming a minority in a bigger state isn't on their agenda. Even if all 9 counties of Ulster were counted together as one province, the numbers game would be "interesting" (which is, of course, why the British ceded the other 3 counties to the Free State in the first place).

Still, that's for another day....... and off topic ;)

Loyalists (well, unionists, really) are on the verge of becoming a minority in their current state, if they aren't already. Only two of the six counties (Antrim and Down) of Northern Ireland are still majority Protestant at the moment. While Protestant =/= Unionist, it does usually follow that way. There used to be a large UUP presence in Fermanagh but they seem to have lost the support of the farmers there and Sinn Fein won the entire county.

NI is changing demographically. It might not be for 20, 50, even 100 years but we will reach the point where the majority in NI want a united Ireland, especially when you factor in young Protestants from traditionally unionist areas who might support a UI.

But yes, that's for another time.

iano Jun 14th 2017 9:22 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 
Oh dear, Theresa May's most recent chief of staff, the ex-MP Gavin Barwell former housing minister, is now under the spotlight relating to a long time stalled tower block safety review. Seems lessons have not been learned from the 2009 Camberwell Lakanal House fire enquiry, which has many parallels to this latest disaster.

Gavin Barwell: Theresa May's new chief of staff faces questions over delayed tower block fire safety review | The Independent

Lion in Winter Jun 16th 2017 6:13 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 
This really isn't going well.


https://twitter.com/krishgm

macliam Jun 16th 2017 6:25 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 
Empathy - nul points:o

Lion in Winter Jun 16th 2017 6:36 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by macliam (Post 12274543)
Empathy - nul points:o

Ditto common sense.

Annetje Sep 3rd 2017 9:53 am

Re: Tories in chaos
 
Mayhem skating on very thin ice ...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...otes?CMP=fb_gu

One former cabinet minister told the Observer that May’s determination to cling on to office, and her hardline position on Brexit, would “definitely” trigger letters to Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 committee, over coming weeks. If 15% of Tory MPs write to Brady expressing no confidence in her, a leadership contest has to be called.

Bets are out on a date of Mayhem exit ?

007Steve Sep 3rd 2017 2:18 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by GeniB (Post 12271765)
This is like a medieval play isn't it. What would the Queen do to stay in power?

Kill the princes in the tower. syndrome. How tough has TM had to be .. exactly?

Start a war?

End a peace?

Bring back a backstabber!..Fill her court with those sycophants from her Oxford days.

Get in bed with the enemy?.

What is patently clear is that she doesn't give a flying F**k about the people of the UK or NI
What we say,how we vote,is entirely irrelevant .. She and her Oxford chums are on a mission.It matters not which one of them is in power. They are interchangeable .With one cause. Absolute Power at any price . Anyone in the party to stop them?

Aahhh-ha.... Not wanting to mix threads GeniB, as this should be separate, but I raised this last week in Post Brexit UK, saying that the question was REPUBLIC, and wondering whether those who had started all this actually understood the consequences. Doe she get to wear the State Crown in her tiger-spotted shoes???
Not long to meltdown now. Anyone prepared to make book on £0.75 to 1€, by Christmas?

Golden Years Sep 5th 2017 5:20 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by 007Steve (Post 12330369)
Aahhh-ha.... Not wanting to mix threads GeniB, as this should be separate, but I raised this last week in Post Brexit UK, saying that the question was REPUBLIC, and wondering whether those who had started all this actually understood the consequences. Doe she get to wear the State Crown in her tiger-spotted shoes???
Not long to meltdown now. Anyone prepared to make book on £0.75 to 1€, by Christmas?

I'm sure you could enter into a forward contract to sell sterling at the current level against the euro. When it comes to settlement you would simply close it out at the much lower level you are anticipating.
How much would you like to do?

007Steve Sep 5th 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Tories in chaos
 

Originally Posted by Golden Years (Post 12331730)
I'm sure you could enter into a forward contract to sell sterling at the current level against the euro. When it comes to settlement you would simply close it out at the much lower level you are anticipating.
How much would you like to do?

Already done ........ sold at £1.15, closed at £1.09, profit in .... Shrug... Just doin' wot-ma-Betters does, cos U-sea, I noes-nuffink being as I'm totally hignorant....and mar sorts never learns and is one of them feckless idle workshy layabouts wot yous reads about in the Daily Mail....


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