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Tories in chaos

Tories in chaos

Old Jun 14th 2019, 11:44 am
  #2236  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
Most modern trucks are speed-limited to 53mph these days, which most online route planners don't account for as they're calculating for car speeds. It's an easy thing to overlook.

The driver would need a 45min break before he has driven for 4h 30m, which will be before he gets to the Channel Tunnel, and probably another shortly before he gets to Oxford. He can only legally drive for 1hrs per day, and be on duty for 13hrs, (though there are exceptions). Any delay in customs is going to potentially push his trip time into a second day. Don't forget, the driver won't have started his work and driving time at the loading dock in Dusseldorf, nor will it end at the loading dock in Oxford. Neither will allow parking other than waiting to load/unload.

12hrs travel time may be about right, but there's little margin for delays at customs or traffic, which isn't the case now, is it? Customs transit now is a known quantity, isn't it? And how quickly will the driver's passport fill up with entry stamps?
Your second day example falls down on products coming from closer or further away - a desperate grab to find a larger negative than there actually is.

Customs transit in this example is 15 minutes from the link you guys provided about how much of a disaster it would be - calculated to equate to £30 per load and assuming 100 loads of various components, around £20 per new vehicle produced.

Passport stamps - getting even more desperate?

Come-on, we have just done the calculation, revisited it with better data, and it still comes out at 3 fifths of F-all on a per-car produced basis.

I was willing to accept your inputs of the carrying ability and transport times etc, why can you guys not accept that £30/load or over 100 component deliveries a total of around £20/new vehicle made is really chump change when compared to the Fx or the price of diesel or on and on and on. Instead your fall-back is the drivers passport filling up? Really?

There are real reasons why remaining in the EU will likely be better for the UK overall (certainly over the near-term), I just don't see why remainiacs need to jump on all these fictitious reasons and blow them up out of all proportion.

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Old Jun 14th 2019, 11:53 am
  #2237  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
The example used was 15 minutes, not a cumulative 15 minutes - we merely ensure sufficient inspection bays so it is 15 mins - in your ridiculous example the 300th truck of the day would be waiting for two days to be seen.
Ok, so now we need 15 inspection bays to check 15 trucks in 15 mins, with 15x the number of staff plus office space for these.

All so that we can continue to put 15 trucks through in the same amount of time we do already. And this would need to happen on both sides of the Irish border as well under a 'no deal'. Roughly 10,000 trucks pass through Dover every hour, and if we take half that as trucks coming in, that's a hell of a knock-on in delays if you're the 10,000th truck. And roughly 5,900 trucks cross the Irish border per day, say half coming to NI makes 2,950. That's a lot of infrastructure along a 310-mile open border.

Neither Dover, Folkestone nor any of the other UK ferry ports have the space available to increase by this amount. In which case, European ferry ports and Eire will need their own Operation Stack plans.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 12:23 pm
  #2238  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Your second day example falls down on products coming from closer or further away - a desperate grab to find a larger negative than there actually is.
We were discussing your specific example of Dusseldorf to Oxford. I'm happy to revisit those timings for shorter or longer journeys if you want to. That sort of distance is probably the most doable by a single truck driver in a working day.

Passport stamps - getting even more desperate?

Come-on, we have just done the calculation, revisited it with better data, and it still comes out at 3 fifths of F-all on a per-car produced basis.

I was willing to accept your inputs of the carrying ability and transport times etc, why can you guys not accept that £30/load or over 100 component deliveries a total of around £20/new vehicle made is really chump change when compared to the Fx or the price of diesel or on and on and on. Instead your fall-back is the drivers passport filling up? Really?

There are real reasons why remaining in the EU will likely be better for the UK overall (certainly over the near-term), I just don't see why remainiacs need to jump on all these fictitious reasons and blow them up out of all proportion.
I didn't disagree with your assessment of the percentage of additional costs of the vehicle once the number of engines was revised.

But each delay is going to cost time, and where a truck could comfortably make that trip in a a couple of hours less now, it's earning potential for the owner goes down. So instead of 4 x 10hr trips (2 each out and back, the truck is running 4 x 12hr trips instead. So the truck and driver are unavailble for other work for those 8hrs difference. So the transport company will need to charge an extra 20% to cover the additional hours. This still doesn't add a massive amount to a new vehicle cost, but it's still a cost to someone.

Of course passport stamps filling a driver's passport will matter to a driver having to renew his passport much more often.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 12:46 pm
  #2239  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
There are real reasons why remaining in the EU will likely be better for the UK overall (certainly over the near-term), I just don't see why remainiacs need to jump on all these fictitious reasons and blow them up out of all proportion.
Talking of which, when we have Brexited and the Brexiters bray about how wrongly it was done, that we haven't really left etc etc and you join in with them, will it at that point occur to you that it might have been better to offer the country the clear choice between staying as we are and leaving in such an unsatisfactory manner?

Because even if we leave without an agreement, we're going to come back round to that point again in the future. And there are some Brexiters who've already said that if it's a choice between that and remaining, we might as well stay.

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Old Jun 14th 2019, 1:19 pm
  #2240  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

All that talk of delays, shortages, price rises, and follow-on effects, as well as the exodus of business due to trade barriers are just fake news made up by remainiacs.

Oddly though, even those outside the bubble, who have no dog in the fight whatsoever, are also remainiacs, apparently. They're all making it up too.

The whole world is just jealous of England and the sunlit uplands, that's all it is. They want England to fail. That makes them all remainiacs.

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Old Jun 14th 2019, 1:27 pm
  #2241  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
The example used was 15 minutes, not a cumulative 15 minutes - we merely ensure sufficient inspection bays so it is 15 mins
Read it again!
​​​​​​

- in your ridiculous example the 300th truck of the day would be waiting for two days to be seen.
- precisely.

Your homework for today -

Establish -

(1) How many trucks pass through Dover / Calais daily.

(2) How many checkpoints are available.

(3) Using the above data, calculate the cumulative delay.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 1:35 pm
  #2242  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Perhaps unlike remainiacs with their unwarranted superiority complex, some of us are prepared to take on new data and amend our positions - you guys should try it sometime.
As you appear to be suffering from another of your "genuine misunderstandings" perhaps you should follow your own advice, take on some data, and amend your position.

In this case the output of the RHA, FTA & hundreds of SC Managers on this subject should prove useful.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 1:42 pm
  #2243  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
Ok, so now we need 15 inspection bays to check 15 trucks in 15 mins, with 15x the number of staff plus office space for these.
Yes, we'll need more inspection bays - that's not a cost for Honda.

All so that we can continue to put 15 trucks through in the same amount of time we do already. And this would need to happen on both sides of the Irish border as well under a 'no deal'. Roughly 10,000 trucks pass through Dover every hour, and if we take half that as trucks coming in, that's a hell of a knock-on in delays if you're the 10,000th truck. And roughly 5,900 trucks cross the Irish border per day, say half coming to NI makes 2,950. That's a lot of infrastructure along a 310-mile open border.

Neither Dover, Folkestone nor any of the other UK ferry ports have the space available to increase by this amount. In which case, European ferry ports and Eire will need their own Operation Stack plans.
Can you check your 10,000 trucks an hour - seems high to me. The Guardian says the Port handles 2.6M trucks a year - if half are coming in that would be 1.3M /365 days/24 hours = 150 an hour coming in. I suspect your 10,000 is per day both ways and therefore around 200 per hour inwards.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-brexit-delays

You'll note that unlike your fellow travellers, I am not "dissing" you for the 10,000 number, I assume it's a genuine error and no big issue as we try and discuss the issue and get to the nub, shame the rest of the remainiacs have to be so petty about my first estimate of 600 engines per truckload.

Note that the checking rate for non-EU containers coming into the UK appears to be around 2%, so I'm not sure we will be holding up all 200 per hour of these trucks, perhaps it will be 4 per hour?

Customs checks and borders could increase. Management of the flow of trade with non-EU countries is already highly efficient and almost entirely free of customs delay. Barely 2% of goods coming into the UK from non-EU countries are stopped for customs checks. Those that are stopped tend to be as a result of intelligence-led investigations or on food safety grounds.
https://www.britishports.org.uk/syst...time_ports.pdf

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Old Jun 14th 2019, 1:46 pm
  #2244  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Expatrick View Post
Read it again!
​​​​​​

- precisely.

Your homework for today -

Establish -

(1) How many trucks pass through Dover / Calais daily.

(2) How many checkpoints are available.

(3) Using the above data, calculate the cumulative delay.
No point - there will be no delay, we'll flex the number of checkpoints, the location of checkpoints and the percentage of vehicles checked accordingly. It's really not that difficult. Remainiacs seem such Debbie Downers, always desperately looking for a negative when simple solutions abound.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 1:47 pm
  #2245  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Expatrick View Post
As you appear to be suffering from another of your "genuine misunderstandings" perhaps you should follow your own advice, take on some data, and amend your position.

In this case the output of the RHA, FTA & hundreds of SC Managers on this subject should prove useful.
I frequently do, unlike most of the remainiac fringe on BE.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 1:49 pm
  #2246  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
All that talk of delays, shortages, price rises, and follow-on effects, as well as the exodus of business due to trade barriers are just fake news made up by remainiacs.
Very true.

Oddly though, even those outside the bubble, who have no dog in the fight whatsoever, are also remainiacs, apparently. They're all making it up too.
Just ignorant, following the elite remainiac herd and scared of change.

The whole world is just jealous of England and the sunlit uplands, that's all it is. They want England to fail. That makes them all remainiacs.
Most of the world just admire us and our bravery in shedding the oppressive EU yoke and reaching for freedom.




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Old Jun 14th 2019, 1:51 pm
  #2247  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
No point - there will be no delay, we'll flex the number of checkpoints, the location of checkpoints and the percentage of vehicles checked accordingly. It's really not that difficult. Remainiacs seem such Debbie Downers, always desperately looking for a negative when simple solutions abound.
Who's 'we' in this context?
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 1:53 pm
  #2248  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
No point - there will be no delay, we'll flex the number of checkpoints, the location of checkpoints and the percentage of vehicles checked accordingly. It's really not that difficult. Remainiacs seem such Debbie Downers, always desperately looking for a negative when simple solutions abound.
How many checkpoints will be needed to handle the 200 / hour?

And your answer is .....?



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Old Jun 14th 2019, 2:01 pm
  #2249  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Expatrick View Post
How many checkpoints will be needed to handle the 200 / hour?

And your answer is .....?
What's your answer?
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 2:02 pm
  #2250  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
What's your answer?
It would have been so much easier in school if we could have used this in our exams ...
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