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Tories in chaos

Tories in chaos

Old Jun 13th 2019, 10:05 pm
  #2221  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Fake news, deliberately made to look extreme as part of the project fear process..

A 15 minute delay on a truck carrying, for example engines from Germany to the UK:
  • The trailer would carry around 600 car engines worth around £3,000 each - so £1.8M of load.
  • The distance from Dusseldorf to Oxford is 470 miles and around 10 hours.
  • Mileage rates for HGV - say around £2/mile
So we have £960 trip extended by 15 mins, so equivalent to about 15 miles, so by £30. The £960 trip becomes a £990 trip.

That £30 has to be recouped across the value of the items it is carrying - an additional 5 pence per £3,000 engine.

The logistics manager now knows the journey will take 10 hrs and 15 mins and can plan accordingly.

Multiply this by 100 components for the car coming from the EU (as opposed to those coming from outside the EU who already have checks) - some deliveries of cheaper things like shock absorbers will have many, many more on a load, some things may have less - so using 5p times 100 = £5 additional cost per £20K+ vehicle.

The vehicle will have had around £10K of value-add costs added in the UK, which with the softening of Sterling now make it £1,000 cheaper when exported.
Are you sure a lorry can carry 600 car engines? Seems like an awful lot.

For a start a car engine (small) weighs about 150 Kilos so that would be 90 tonnes which is more than a normal lorry can carry.
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 11:56 pm
  #2222  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Fake news, deliberately made to look extreme as part of the project fear process..

A 15 minute delay on a truck carrying, for example engines from Germany to the UK:
The trailer would carry around 600 car engines worth around £3,000 each - so £1.8M of load.
The average articulated trailer has an internal length of 528 inches, an internal width of 98 inches, and an internal height of 102 inches. It tends to have a net payload capacity of approx 60,000lb

The average compact engine size (excluding transport packaging) is 30 inches by 30 inches by 25 inches, and a weight of around 250lb.

Volume-wise, the max number of engines without packaging would be around 230 per trailer, weighing around 58,000ld without transport packaging. At your £3,000 per engine, that's £690,000 per truck. Though I'd suggest the additional packaging will reduce this below 200 engines.

  • The distance from Dusseldorf to Oxford is 470 miles and around 10 hours.
  • Mileage rates for HGV - say around £2/mile
Did you factor in the driver's rest break after 4.5hrs driving time, and the loading and unloading time from the Channel Tunnel train?

So we have £960 trip extended by 15 mins, so equivalent to about 15 miles, so by £30. The £960 trip becomes a £990 trip.

That £30 has to be recouped across the value of the items it is carrying - an additional 5 pence per £3,000 engine.

The logistics manager now knows the journey will take 10 hrs and 15 mins and can plan accordingly.

Multiply this by 100 components for the car coming from the EU (as opposed to those coming from outside the EU who already have checks) - some deliveries of cheaper things like shock absorbers will have many, many more on a load, some things may have less - so using 5p times 100 = £5 additional cost per £20K+ vehicle.
As I've demonstrated, your 600 engines become 200, which triples your cost per item

The vehicle will have had around £10K of value-add costs added in the UK, which with the softening of Sterling now make it £1,000 cheaper when exported.
Let's look at your 15 minute delay. The next truck coming to the UK will face another 15 minute delay, so will the next two trucks. So the 5th truck is already delayed an hour by the trucks in front. Now do the math again.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 6:23 am
  #2223  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Are you sure a lorry can carry 600 car engines? Seems like an awful lot.

For a start a car engine (small) weighs about 150 Kilos so that would be 90 tonnes which is more than a normal lorry can carry.
The maximum weight of an HGV on UK roads is 44Tne. Cape Blue, as usual, is wrong. Now​​​​​wait for a reply saying it was only an atypical example. Poor old boy is slipping.
As for doing any maths as pointed out by DLD, well that's not his thing
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 6:32 am
  #2224  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Are you sure a lorry can carry 600 car engines? Seems like an awful lot.

For a start a car engine (small) weighs about 150 Kilos so that would be 90 tonnes which is more than a normal lorry can carry.
Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
The average articulated trailer has an internal length of 528 inches, an internal width of 98 inches, and an internal height of 102 inches. It tends to have a net payload capacity of approx 60,000lb

The average compact engine size (excluding transport packaging) is 30 inches by 30 inches by 25 inches, and a weight of around 250lb.

Volume-wise, the max number of engines without packaging would be around 230 per trailer, weighing around 58,000ld without transport packaging. At your £3,000 per engine, that's £690,000 per truck. Though I'd suggest the additional packaging will reduce this below 200 engines.

Did you factor in the driver's rest break after 4.5hrs driving time, and the loading and unloading time from the Channel Tunnel train?

As I've demonstrated, your 600 engines become 200, which triples your cost per item

Let's look at your 15 minute delay. The next truck coming to the UK will face another 15 minute delay, so will the next two trucks. So the 5th truck is already delayed an hour by the trucks in front. Now do the math again.
Good - nice to see you guys engaging in the issue rather than the usual ad-hom.

The 600 was purely a guess, I think you both have a better assessment at around 200 engines per truck load, but let's make it 150 to be extra-sure.

The 10 hours did indeed have an hours break and channel tunnel loading, but let's make it 12 hours to be on the safe side

I think your suggestion that the 15 min delays are cumulative are wrong, that would make the 50,000th truck having to wait for six months in customs, we are talking an extra 15 mins per truck only.

So we now have:

A 15 minute delay on a truck carrying, for example engines from Germany to the UK:
  • The trailer would carry around 150 car engines worth around £3,000 each - so £450,000 of load.
  • The distance from Dusseldorf to Oxford is 470 miles and around 12 hours with extra breaks and loading
  • Mileage rates for HGV - say around £2/mile
So we have £960 trip extended by 15 mins, so equivalent to about 15 miles, so by £30. The £960 trip becomes a £990 trip (we are ignoring the chunnel fees as the same for both scenarios).

That £30 has to be recouped across the value of the items it is carrying - an additional 20 pence per £3,000 engine.

The logistics manager now knows the journey will take 12 hrs and 15 mins and can plan accordingly.

Multiply this by 100 components for the car coming from the EU (as opposed to those coming from outside the EU who already have checks) - some deliveries of cheaper things like shock absorbers will have many, many more on a load, some things may have less - so using 20p times 100 = £20 additional cost per £20K+ vehicle.


Now Before I assumed around 50% of the £20K new vehicle cost would be value-add in the UK in the softer UK currency and that Sterling had weakened by 10%, let's just check the Sterling bit - at the end of 2015 it was at around 1.40euro to the £, it is now 1.12euro to the £, so a softening of 20% - this would make the car 20% cheaper on the UK value-add part.

How does that sound? The total extra cost per vehicle manufactured for the 100 EU-sourced components is now £20, on a vehicle when exported that is £2,000 cheaper than before when sold abroad - so overall the vehicle is £1,980 cheaper due to Brexit?.

Last edited by Cape Blue; Jun 14th 2019 at 6:35 am.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 6:36 am
  #2225  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by 007Steve View Post
The maximum weight of an HGV on UK roads is 44Tne. Cape Blue, as usual, is wrong. Now​​​​​wait for a reply saying it was only an atypical example. Poor old boy is slipping.
As for doing any maths as pointed out by DLD, well that's not his thing
Oh Steve, look how the other two were having a sensible conversation without ad-hom, and then along you come with the usual petty attitude.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 6:56 am
  #2226  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
I wish you hadn't posted that. I went back and had another look and you're dead right

Mind you, on that score Boris looks the least psychopathic. Or the one you'd least suspect of being one anyway, so the one you'd probably most have to suspect if it was a TV crime series. Good job it isn't though, eh?

Oh, hang on a minute ….
Midsomer?
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 8:37 am
  #2227  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Oh Steve, look how the other two were having a sensible conversation without ad-hom, and then along you come with the usual petty attitude.
It's called correcting the ill informed:- in this case, you CB
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 9:05 am
  #2228  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Well the doyen of Brexiteer economists Professor Patrick Minford professor of applied economics at Cardiff University has himself said that Brexit will likely mean the end of manufacturing in the UK so I guess there must be another number wrong in there.

Or maybe it's just a bit more complicated than that.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 9:28 am
  #2229  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by 007Steve View Post
It's called correcting the ill informed:- in this case, you CB
You saying CB = ill informed ? How dare you

My guess is that it's not the informed bit that is wrong with his theorie
He believes himself and not the experts, now leave him in his dream. He's not doing any harm.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 10:34 am
  #2230  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Cumulative delays - a simple example -

(Criteria - trucks arrive at 1 minute intervals, clearance time at checkpoint = 15 minutes)


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Old Jun 14th 2019, 10:38 am
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Annetje View Post
You saying CB = ill informed ? How dare you

My guess is that it's not the informed bit that is wrong with his theorie
He believes himself and not the experts, now leave him in his dream. He's not doing any harm.
Actually he's doing a very good job of convincing us remainiacs that we have been right all along!
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 11:26 am
  #2232  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Good - nice to see you guys engaging in the issue rather than the usual ad-hom.

The 600 was purely a guess, I think you both have a better assessment at around 200 engines per truck load, but let's make it 150 to be extra-sure.

The 10 hours did indeed have an hours break and channel tunnel loading, but let's make it 12 hours to be on the safe side.
Most modern trucks are speed-limited to 53mph these days, which most online route planners don't account for as they're calculating for car speeds. It's an easy thing to overlook.

The driver would need a 45min break before he has driven for 4h 30m, which will be before he gets to the Channel Tunnel, and probably another shortly before he gets to Oxford. He can only legally drive for 1hrs per day, and be on duty for 13hrs, (though there are exceptions). Any delay in customs is going to potentially push his trip time into a second day. Don't forget, the driver won't have started his work and driving time at the loading dock in Dusseldorf, nor will it end at the loading dock in Oxford. Neither will allow parking other than waiting to load/unload.

12hrs travel time may be about right, but there's little margin for delays at customs or traffic, which isn't the case now, is it? Customs transit now is a known quantity, isn't it? And how quickly will the driver's passport fill up with entry stamps?
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 11:32 am
  #2233  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Expatrick View Post
Cumulative delays - a simple example -

(Criteria - trucks arrive at 1 minute intervals, clearance time at checkpoint = 15 minutes)

The example used was 15 minutes, not a cumulative 15 minutes - we merely ensure sufficient inspection bays so it is 15 mins - in your ridiculous example the 300th truck of the day would be waiting for two days to be seen.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 11:34 am
  #2234  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by 007Steve View Post
It's called correcting the ill informed:- in this case, you CB
Originally Posted by Annetje View Post
You saying CB = ill informed ? How dare you

My guess is that it's not the informed bit that is wrong with his theorie
He believes himself and not the experts, now leave him in his dream. He's not doing any harm.
Originally Posted by Expatrick View Post
Actually he's doing a very good job of convincing us remainiacs that we have been right all along!
Perhaps unlike remainiacs with their unwarranted superiority complex, some of us are prepared to take on new data and amend our positions - you guys should try it sometime.
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Old Jun 14th 2019, 11:41 am
  #2235  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Annetje View Post
You saying CB = ill informed ? How dare you

My guess is that it's not the informed bit that is wrong with his theorie
He believes himself and not the experts, now leave him in his dream. He's not doing any harm.
😢 .. 😢.....😢 .....
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