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Tories in chaos

Tories in chaos

Old Jun 13th 2019, 1:15 am
  #2146  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by UkWinds5353 View Post
How does Prime Minister Boris Johnson sound?
Like a Russian spy.

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Old Jun 13th 2019, 3:59 am
  #2147  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by UkWinds5353 View Post
How does Prime Minister Boris Johnson sound?
​Don't you love farce?
My fault, I fear
I thought that you'd want what I want
Sorry, my dear!
But where are the clowns
Send in the clowns
Don't bother, they're here​​​​​​

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Old Jun 13th 2019, 6:14 am
  #2148  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by UkWinds5353 View Post
How does Prime Minister Boris Johnson sound?

It's about to happen because he has 83 MP votes and the closest rival Hunt has only 34 MP votes. There are only 80 more undeclared MP votes.
It's not as simple as that - voting goes in rounds down to the final pair, who are then presented to the party members to choose between.

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Old Jun 13th 2019, 6:39 am
  #2149  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
That actually doesn't need to be decided beforehand. It's better suited to a longer term discussion after the UK leaves.
I think you've just described the "no deal" deception in a nutshell there.

We all know exactly why it's "better suited" to a discussion after the UK leaves. It's so that there's no going back, not so that we don't end up with something very much resembling the Withdrawal Agreement before we move on to talks about the trade. And, of course, those talks will have to happen and those talks will take a very long time.

Continuing to pretend that this is a one-off event in which, with one bound, the UK is free is a complete nonsense, peddled by charlatans and swallowed by the gullible. Pretending that leaving without an agreement actually gives the UK leverage is worse still.
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 6:59 am
  #2150  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Annetje View Post
Now why would the EU buy less from the UK after Brexit ? I wonder if Brexiteers can answer that one ?
They won't - there's your answer.

The (current) largest trade partner for the EU is the USA and then China - neither are in the EU or have a full FTA with the EU. After Brexit the UK will be right up there with these two when it comes to the size of trade with the EU.

The softening of sterling has already discounted any tariff impacts.
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 6:59 am
  #2151  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
I'm confused.
(Here's where you say "I'm not surprised" before launching into one of your tirades about other people being insulting )

Remembering that the wish to leave was expressed only by, what was it, 37%?

You repeatedly describe calls for a second referendum as arrogant. Is it not arrogant to deny those who didn't vote previously (for whatever reason) the opportunity for a vote now? That sounds like some kind of punishment. Serves them right, is that it?

Is it not arrogant to dismiss the idea that people may have changed their minds but "yah boo sucks to them, they can't?"
No, it was 52% - this is how adults measure votes in a democracy.
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 7:03 am
  #2152  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
I think you've just described the "no deal" deception in a nutshell there.

We all know exactly why it's "better suited" to a discussion after the UK leaves. It's so that there's no going back, not so that we don't end up with something very much resembling the Withdrawal Agreement before we move on to talks about the trade. And, of course, those talks will have to happen and those talks will take a very long time.

Continuing to pretend that this is a one-off event in which, with one bound, the UK is free is a complete nonsense, peddled by charlatans and swallowed by the gullible. Pretending that leaving without an agreement actually gives the UK leverage is worse still.
Except Eric, I've not said any of those things. Even your assumption about why I think the discussions are better suited to taking place after we leave is incorrect (Hint: IMO it has nothing to do with "no going back").
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 7:28 am
  #2153  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
They won't - there's your answer.

The (current) largest trade partner for the EU is the USA and then China - neither are in the EU or have a full FTA with the EU. After Brexit the UK will be right up there with these two when it comes to the size of trade with the EU.

The softening of sterling has already discounted any tariff impacts.
Well, the UK will certainly continue to buy EU goods, regardless of how expensive they become as a result of both tariff and non-tariff barriers, simply because that's where the established supply chains are. And since the UK will have no other trade agreements for some time to come (unless of course, in desperation, it chooses to capitulate on key issues) then EU goods will continue to flow into the UK.

The reverse, however, is the reverse. There is no dependency of EU member states on UK goods. They can source anything that the UK has to offer within the EU, so there's no need to pay more or suffer non-tariff barriers. EU supply chains are already being diverted from UK sources. For obvious reasons.

So, just wishful thinking on your part, but that's the whole problem with Brexit. You lot never thought through it. And you still refuse to.
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 7:32 am
  #2154  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
Well, the UK will certainly continue to buy EU goods, regardless of how expensive they become as a result of both tariff and non-tariff barriers, simply because that's where the established supply chains are. And since the UK will have no other trade agreements for some time to come (unless of course, in desperation, it chooses to capitulate on key issues) then EU goods will continue to flow into the UK.

The reverse, however, is the reverse. There is no dependency of EU member states on UK goods. They can source anything that the UK has to offer within the EU, so there's no need to pay more or suffer non-tariff barriers. EU supply chains are already being diverted from UK sources. For obvious reasons.

So, just wishful thinking on your part, but that's the whole problem with Brexit. You lot never thought through it. And you still refuse to.
And as I've just mentioned, the softening of Sterling 3 years ago (and potential further softening of Sterling with a no-deal Brexit) will more than take account of any tariff and non-tariff barriers erected by the EU - do try and read what the others post before you cut and paste your standard reply.

The reality is that trade will continue in both directions as WTO trade barriers are quite low for most products these days - it's not the 1970's anymore, although many remainiacs seems to think it is.

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Old Jun 13th 2019, 7:41 am
  #2155  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
I think you've just described the "no deal" deception in a nutshell there.

We all know exactly why it's "better suited" to a discussion after the UK leaves. It's so that there's no going back, not so that we don't end up with something very much resembling the Withdrawal Agreement before we move on to talks about the trade. And, of course, those talks will have to happen and those talks will take a very long time.

Continuing to pretend that this is a one-off event in which, with one bound, the UK is free is a complete nonsense, peddled by charlatans and swallowed by the gullible. Pretending that leaving without an agreement actually gives the UK leverage is worse still.
Of course in Cape economics the UK is not a net importer where a softer sterling increases the costs of everything we import without taking into account any additional tarrifs that may be applied where they currently do not exist.
In Cape economics inflation driven by import costs which could result in higher interest rates is also nothing for him to worry about even though it dioes negatively impact on the majority of the UK population and the economy..

Last edited by EMR; Jun 13th 2019 at 7:51 am.
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 7:48 am
  #2156  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
The reality is that trade will continue in both directions as WTO trade barriers are quite low for most products these days - it's not the 1970's anymore, although many remainiacs seems to think it is.
For goods, certainly, but the most valuable part of the UK's trade with the EU is in services, which could well be presented with all sorts of non-tariff barriers.

Where do you think the extra exports to the EU, boosting the UK to USA / China levels post-Brexit, is going to come from and why do you think that will happen with the UK outside the single market when it couldn't manage it from within?

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Old Jun 13th 2019, 7:50 am
  #2157  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
And as I've just mentioned, the softening of Sterling 3 years ago (and potential further softening of Sterling with a no-deal Brexit) will more than take account of any tariff and non-tariff barriers erected by the EU - do try and read what the others post before you cut and paste your standard reply.

The reality is that trade will continue in both directions as WTO trade barriers are quite low for most products these days - it's not the 1970's anymore, although many remainiacs seems to think it is.
ok, so, weak sterling might mitigate some tariff barriers, however virtually all credible economists say that it's non-tariff barriers that impact trade by orders of magnitude more than tariffs alone. An excellent example of that is the "just in time" deliveries that all kinds of businesses require, not just manufacturing. Retailers, industrial suppliers and even agriculture will suffer from that. And there's more than just JIT.

And you're further dismissing that the UK is for all practical purposes, an import economy. Weak sterling is going to hurt substantially, and the weaker, the more pain. And as manufacturers and other exporters move on to greener pastures, it's likely to become even more import dependent.

​​​​​
I understand that it's satisfying for you to dismiss these realities, but it doesn't change reality.

Last edited by amideislas; Jun 13th 2019 at 7:54 am.
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 7:51 am
  #2158  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
Except Eric, I've not said any of those things. Even your assumption about why I think the discussions are better suited to taking place after we leave is incorrect (Hint: IMO it has nothing to do with "no going back").
I didn't say you had explicitly stated any of that - I was merely outlining the deceit in the premise which is being peddled by current contenders for Tory party leadership.

You do appear to be aligning with their position, though.
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 7:53 am
  #2159  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
Of course in Cape economics the UK is not a net importer where a softer sterling increases the costs of everything we import without taking into account any additional tarrifs that may be applied where they currently do not exist.
In Cape economics inflation driven by import costs which could result in higher interest rates is also nothing for him to worry about even though it dioes negatively impact on the majority of the UK population and the economy..
Eric wasn't replying to me.

Sure, for a period a softer currency can push up inflation - but as inflation is at historic lows that is not a great issue. However it also spurs UK production and exports, both very positive when, as you point-out, we are currently a net importer.
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Old Jun 13th 2019, 7:55 am
  #2160  
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Default Re: Tories in chaos

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
And as I've just mentioned, the softening of Sterling 3 years ago (and potential further softening of Sterling with a no-deal Brexit) will more than take account of any tariff and non-tariff barriers erected by the EU - do try and read what the others post before you cut and paste your standard reply.

The reality is that trade will continue in both directions as WTO trade barriers are quite low for most products these days - it's not the 1970's anymore, although many remainiacs seems to think it is.
This ''softening'' of the Sterling will be a big negative for the billions worth of imports ex EU though.
And why would the EU do difficult with paperwork, tarrifs and restrictions buying from the UK when within the EU they won't have that problem ?
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