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Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Old Feb 14th 2020, 12:06 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by paulry View Post
And I wouldn't be surprised if pressure grows for:
1. A united Ireland; and
2. Irish exit from the EU.
Theres certainly no rational reason to leave the EU, as northern Ireland already knows, so the absurdity of your second point is the best testament to your first.
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Old Feb 14th 2020, 7:23 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
Pressure grows where, why and with whom? If you are commenting on the Irish election, your thoughts project British concens onto Irish politics, because polls suggest that the drivers were domestic, not external. The only impact of the "external" was the distraction it caused from tackling issues at home - votes for Sinn Féin were largely from those who saw it as an alternative to the centre-right duopoly of Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael.

Ireland is committed to the GFA - which mandates self-determination for the six counties, so it is both lazy and incorrect to assume that a vote for Sinn Féin was in support of Irish unity. Whilst it is obvious that a party committed to a 32-county republic will try to use its electoral success to press for movement on the border issue, it was not part of their published agenda and they will have no power to do anything more unless they form a government. Even were this to happen, focus on a united Ireland, rather than tackling domestic issues, would see them punished at the next election just as the duopoly were in this last one. Brexit is far more likely to drive Irish unity than the success of Sinn Féin, north or south of the border, as again it projects British concerns onto the island of Ireland.

As for withdrawal from the EU, I would not hold your breath. Ireland has benefited greatly from membership and there is no appetite to leave, so it was not even a factor in the recent elections. Certainly I would expect the EU to become less popular in Ireland as conditions change - but that's because its current popularity is unsustainably high. However, the people of Ireland do not delude themselves that they are a major player and do not hark back to any time of supposed prosperity outside the EU. Ireland aligns itself with the small nations of Europe, not the "big boys", because the EU offers access to a world stage that would otherwise be denied to them. The young know nothing else and the old remember the time before accession, when Ireland was seen as an isolated island off the west coast of Britain -so why would they ever wish to return to that? People in Ireland are focused on its transformation from an uncomfortable past that drove its young to emigrate due to a lack of opportunity at home - and membership of the EU is part of that transformation.
Yes, partly the because of the outcomes of the Irish election but also because the gradual changing demographics and softening of the hard lines in NI.

As for the EU, it's not going to happen anytime soon but the Irish Freedom Party now exists and there are growing seeds of doubt about the direction that the EU is moving in. Sure, Ireland has on the face of things done well economically out of EU membership but property prices are bonkers there and the traditional working class are feeling the same pain and pressures as those in the UK did and that looks likely to worsen. Not everyone is focusing on and happy with it's transformation - in fact many are getting increasing pissed off with it.
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Old Feb 14th 2020, 11:53 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by paulry View Post
Yes, partly the because of the outcomes of the Irish election but also because the gradual changing demographics and softening of the hard lines in NI.

As for the EU, it's not going to happen anytime soon but the Irish Freedom Party now exists and there are growing seeds of doubt about the direction that the EU is moving in. Sure, Ireland has on the face of things done well economically out of EU membership but property prices are bonkers there and the traditional working class are feeling the same pain and pressures as those in the UK did and that looks likely to worsen. Not everyone is focusing on and happy with it's transformation - in fact many are getting increasing pissed off with it.
I'm not sure whether you actually read or understood my previous post, but please stop trying to project your personal wishes and look at the facts, rather than just repeating the same old tosh and scraping the barrel for evidence to support it.....

As I said before, the outcome of the latest Irish election will have little impact on the border issue - talk is not action. Even Sinn Féin accept that change can only be driven by a positive vote in the 6 counties..... about which the Dáil has no say. The situation in the Republic will not impact the 6 counties and the demographics there are what they are.... so no change - as I said, the fallout from Brexit is more likely to be a driver for unity than anything else, both because of the impact of daily life and the cynical way the UK government threw the unionists under the bus. Even if there was a positive vote to leave the UK, that would only start negotiations on unity, as it would mean fundamental changes to the existing Republic and its constitution. So move on, nothing to see here... just a great deal of British extrapolation about the vote for a left-of-centre party that supports the concept of a 32 county republic (surprise - so do the others!). SF has little chance of a meaningful stake in government, because I'd expect FF&FG to bite the bullet and work together, rather than give SF a shot. Let's await the outcome...

I'll deal with the "Irish Freedom Party" later - but pleaae don't delude yourself that a country that expressed 73% satisfaction in the EU in 2018 is likely to join the UK outside the club. Property prices are "bonkers" there (particularly if you choose to forget the higher average earnings) - but that's seen as an internal issue, not a problem with the EU and the issues with the national health system are equally due to a lack of action by the last (and previous) governments. As has been said before, the vote was primarily against a centre-right duopoly who are the Tweedledum and Tweedledee of politics, struggling to demonstrate any great difference in approach, except in opposing the other. Sinn Féin have filled the gap for a left-of-centre opposition - but trying to discern any anti-EU sentiment there is just clutching at straws.

Now to the bonkers brigade. The "Irish Freedom Party" has never had elected representatives at local, national, or EU level. The IFP "leader", Hermann Kelly, has endorsed the white nationalist "grand replacement" conspiracy theory and been linked to Far-Right activists in Europe, so I think we can see the direction of travel. Their 11 candidates in 2020 received 5,495 first preference votes across all constituencies (out of a total of 2,183,765), winning none of the 160 seats. This equates to between 119 and 956 votes apiece. This was just a tad more than the far-right National Party (4,773 votes) who want to ban muslims, reclaim the 6 counties and rescind the recent legislation for gay marriage and abortion.
Calling yourself a party, talking bollix and getting no representation doesn't actually suggest any great support, does it? Contrast this with 266,529 first preference votes for independents, who won 19 seats or the "unpopular" Fine Gael party with 455,584 votes and 35 seats...... hence straw and clutch.

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Old Feb 15th 2020, 12:31 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by macliam View Post

Now to the bonkers brigade. The "Irish Freedom Party" has never had elected representatives at local, national, or EU level. The IFP "leader", Hermann Kelly, has endorsed the white nationalist "grand replacement" conspiracy theory and been linked to Far-Right activists in Europe, so I think we can see the direction of travel. Their 11 candidates in 2020 received 5,495 first preference votes across all constituencies (out of a total of 2,183,765), winning none of the 160 seats. This equates to between 119 and 956 votes apiece. This was just a tad more than the far-right National Party (4,773 votes) who want to ban muslims, reclaim the 6 counties and rescind the recent legislation for gay marriage and abortion.
Calling yourself a party, talking bollix and getting no representation doesn't actually suggest any great support, does it? Contrast this with 266,529 first preference votes for independents, who won 19 seats or the "unpopular" Fine Gael party with 455,584 votes and 35 seats...... hence straw and clutch.
Ireland sounds like an eminently rational country and its direction of travel over the last decades towards a progressive, modern, humanist society has been very interesting.

Your post will not fall on fertile ground, however. Paulry is a fan of the "great replacement" conspiracy theory and a lot of other far-right trash as well, made clear over the years but again recently in his links posted to the anti-woke backlash thread.

Random comment - in 2018 when my son moved to the UK for uni, the airline lost his bag. It was full of things of sentimental importance to him, so being me I hunted down an executive to keep an eye on the search and said executive turned out to be half for the first legal marriage of two gay people in Ireland. He found it, too.
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Old Feb 15th 2020, 1:49 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Ireland sounds like an eminently rational country and its direction of travel over the last decades towards a progressive, modern, humanist society has been very interesting.

Your post will not fall on fertile ground, however. Paulry is a fan of the "great replacement" conspiracy theory and a lot of other far-right trash as well, made clear over the years but again recently in his links posted to the anti-woke backlash thread.

Random comment - in 2018 when my son moved to the UK for uni, the airline lost his bag. It was full of things of sentimental importance to him, so being me I hunted down an executive to keep an eye on the search and said executive turned out to be half for the first legal marriage of two gay people in Ireland. He found it, too.
Yes, I'm both proud and amazed at the changes in Ireland during my lifetime. I feel uncomfortable extolling the virtues of a system that bade me (and many, many others) leave, due to the lack of opportunity. In many ways it proves that a "system" is only one part of the equation - people are the other part.

The constitution that seemed to support oppression (with a small "o") in the past, is the same, but amended to support a more open and inclusive society - and now looks like a brilliant building-block for the future.
Until this last election the same duopoly bounced power between them, leaving me gobsmacked that such a bunch of eejits could steer the nation out of a poor, grey and inward-looking ex-colony towards a vibrant outward-looking beacon of popular democracy (whilst hitting the rocks of a world recession and having to change tack in beween, to be sure). Now, whatever the eventual outcome of the SF vote and whether it can be replicated or not, that duopoly will have to take note and change.
Ireland today is in a far better place that it was back in the seventies, even if some deplore the loss of "traditional values " that comes with progress. So, it's an example of what can be achieved in a lifetime, rather than a model that can be cut and pasted for use elsewhere.

What's also interesting is the view from the other side of the Irish sea. Some prople recognize the true situation, but there are many who perceive Ireland as "foreign" and thus threatening. There are also those who see it as "the same" as the UK, so can't see what all the fuss is about or why the Irish don't just do as they're told (like they think the Scots and Welsh do, for the most part). Sometimes both of these are in the same person! The truth is that there are many many things which are very similar, which makes the differences stand out - and the differences just undeline the similarities.... or are a logical extension of different attitudes and situations. I realise that this is a very "Irish" statement, but it demonstrates why nothing should ever be taken as a given when it comes to the British-Irish relationship (I first wrote that as Anglo-Irish because that's the term normally used and "British-Irish" seems clumsy - maybe I'd be better calling it the Hiberno-British relationship instead!) But we all bring our own experience and preejudices to the party - an Irish saying goess "Bíonn dhá insint ar scéal agus dhá leagan déag ar amhrán" (There are two versions to a story and twelve arrangements to a song).

I'm glad the lad got his case back and that you found someone to help you (that's rare enough). I'm glad for the guy that helped you that he now has the opportunity to express himself in his own country and I'm glad for Ireland that it has come through the birth pangs of nationhood and is standing up to be counted. Maith sibh go léir!
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Old Feb 15th 2020, 3:09 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
Yes, I'm both proud and amazed at the changes in Ireland during my lifetime. I feel uncomfortable extolling the virtues of a system that bade me (and many, many others) leave, due to the lack of opportunity. In many ways it proves that a "system" is only one part of the equation - people are the other part.

The constitution that seemed to support oppression (with a small "o") in the past, is the same, but amended to support a more open and inclusive society - and now looks like a brilliant building-block for the future.
Until this last election the same duopoly bounced power between them, leaving me gobsmacked that such a bunch of eejits could steer the nation out of a poor, grey and inward-looking ex-colony towards a vibrant outward-looking beacon of popular democracy (whilst hitting the rocks of a world recession and having to change tack in beween, to be sure). Now, whatever the eventual outcome of the SF vote and whether it can be replicated or not, that duopoly will have to take note and change.
Ireland today is in a far better place that it was back in the seventies, even if some deplore the loss of "traditional values " that comes with progress. So, it's an example of what can be achieved in a lifetime, rather than a model that can be cut and pasted for use elsewhere.
It's precisely this that gives me hope for the UK. Mired as it is in backward and inward-looking behaviour at the moment, I'm hoping that it's the pause that refreshes - that there will be a counter reaction and something new and better will come of that where people actually pay attention to what is going on and demand that, collectively, something be done to move things forward in a different way.

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
What's also interesting is the view from the other side of the Irish sea. Some prople recognize the true situation, but there are many who perceive Ireland as "foreign" and thus threatening. There are also those who see it as "the same" as the UK, so can't see what all the fuss is about or why the Irish don't just do as they're told (like they think the Scots and Welsh do, for the most part). Sometimes both of these are in the same person! The truth is that there are many many things which are very similar, which makes the differences stand out - and the differences just undeline the similarities.... or are a logical extension of different attitudes and situations. I realise that this is a very "Irish" statement, but it demonstrates why nothing should ever be taken as a given when it comes to the British-Irish relationship (I first wrote that as Anglo-Irish because that's the term normally used and "British-Irish" seems clumsy - maybe I'd be better calling it the Hiberno-British relationship instead!) But we all bring our own experience and preejudices to the party - an Irish saying goess "Bíonn dhá insint ar scéal agus dhá leagan déag ar amhrán" (There are two versions to a story and twelve arrangements to a song).
I suspect that many English, at any rate, knowing next to nothing about Ireland or any Irish people simply think of the country and the people as a variant of British but gone a bit wrong, much like those who know nothing of the US think that Americans are just a slightly amusing version of the British (and vice versa, by the way, very often). We are neighbouring countries and cultures with a longstanding relationship, although that relationship is marked and coloured by colonization (in which part of my family participated, as FitzGeralds, but too long ago for me to claim citizenship now). Oddly, it reminds me of talking to some of my Indian colleagues at work about the things we share and the reasons we share them.



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Old Feb 28th 2020, 4:03 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
It's precisely this that gives me hope for the UK. Mired as it is in backward and inward-looking behaviour at the moment, I'm hoping that it's the pause that refreshes - that there will be a counter reaction and something new and better will come of that where people actually pay attention to what is going on and demand that, collectively, something be done to move things forward in a different way.



I suspect that many English, at any rate, knowing next to nothing about Ireland or any Irish people simply think of the country and the people as a variant of British but gone a bit wrong, much like those who know nothing of the US think that Americans are just a slightly amusing version of the British (and vice versa, by the way, very often). We are neighbouring countries and cultures with a longstanding relationship, although that relationship is marked and coloured by colonization (in which part of my family participated, as FitzGeralds, but too long ago for me to claim citizenship now). Oddly, it reminds me of talking to some of my Indian colleagues at work about the things we share and the reasons we share them.
A useful (and fairly neutral) bite-sized look at "modern" Irish politics.
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Old Jun 27th 2020, 12:41 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

As an update to this ill-titled thread (and as I predicted back in February) from today the new Irish government is a coalition between Fianna Fáil and Fine gael, with the Greens in support. The new Taoiseach is Micheál Martin, leader of FF, and Varadkar, as leader of FG, will become Tánaiste (deputy) - and in December 2022 their roles will reverse.

This is an "interesting" coalition, bringing together the 2 major parties for the first time (they're normally bitter rivals) and with the Greens demanding significant environmental measures.

Sinn Féin will be in opposition.
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Old Jun 27th 2020, 1:01 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
As an update to this ill-titled thread (and as I predicted back in February) from today the new Irish government is a coalition between Fianna Fáil and Fine gael, with the Greens in support. The new Taoiseach is Micheál Martin, leader of FF, and Varadkar, as leader of FG, will become Tánaiste (deputy) - and in December 2022 their roles will reverse.

This is an "interesting" coalition, bringing together the 2 major parties for the first time (they're normally bitter rivals) and with the Greens demanding significant environmental measures.

Sinn Féin will be in opposition.
Will Varadkar remain party leader for two years do you think? Or will he try for an EU job??
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Old Jun 27th 2020, 1:21 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Will Varadkar remain party leader for two years do you think? Or will he try for an EU job??
Why shouldn't he - unless he's voted down by his party? I doubt he'd earn more than he will as Tánaiste as Irish politicians are well paid, a TDs basic salary is €96,189 and the only difference between his earnings as Taoiseach is thatt as Tanaiste he gets an extra allowance of €95,214 as opposed to €111,401 as Taoiseach. When he reassumes the position of Taoiseach at the end of next year, he'll be able to build towards the next election.

Anything can happen - but I think FF and FG having to work together is far more interesting - as is SF becoming the official opposition. There are some fundamental issues to be addressed - but EU membership won't be one of them.
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