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Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Old Feb 10th 2020, 9:57 am
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Default Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Just read the results of the election. Sinn Fein has won in Ireland by a narrow majority. They now plan to try and form the first non centrist / traditional government the country has seen

This is a result that should give Boris food for thought.

Ed Balls has just had a programme on TV where he toured a few countries in Europe to interview people at the sharp end , who had felt ignored and left out . People who changed their traditional ( Labour ? ) vote to go for a populist vote. Even some of the richer and traditionally Conservative voters had done the same . Reason being that they disliked the new Globalism.. Open door policies that they felt had flooded their countries with Immigrants and ruined their business's with unfair competition from such countries as China.
It's opened the doors once again for politicians like Marie Le Pen.Geert Wilders .et al... This was indeed how Hilter came to power in the 30's..Turning on factors that really have nothing to do with their present condition
Ed Balls at leats had the grace to admit it was The Labour Party who had failed the people.. The Conservatives would never in a million years admit that.. because they haven't failed their rich friends .. the only ones they care about.

It struck me ..looking at the disgusting ,filthy ,unloved and uncared for extremely high rise BOX'S the French felt were suitable for the poor and immigrant workers to live in Marseilles. That absolutely nothing has changed since the French revolution . The rich and therefore the new Elite simple moved up one place to replace the beheaded Royalty and Aristocracy, and then copied their lifestyle and ideas. The same in Britain . Royalty has been 'retained ' as a decorative letter head ,but replaced in power by our Rich and elite. In both cases the power and money is retained and spent in Paris and in London ..Whilst we haven't quite reached the lows of France and Italy in our treatment of the 'Have Nots' we are heading in that dangerous direction
This vote in Ireland should be a wake up call.. but will it ?
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 10:04 am
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by GeniB View Post
Just read the results of the election. Sinn Fein has won in Ireland by a narrow majority. They now plan to try and form the first non centrist / traditional government the country has seen

This is a result that should give Boris food for thought.

Ed Balls has just had a programme on TV where he toured a few countries in Europe to interview people at the sharp end , who had felt ignored and left out . People who changed their traditional ( Labour ? ) vote to go for a populist vote. Even some of the richer and traditionally Conservative voters had done the same . Reason being that they disliked the new Globalism.. Open door policies that they felt had flooded their countries with Immigrants and ruined their business's with unfair competition from such countries as China.
.....
This vote in Ireland should be a wake up call.. but will it ?
It sounds like the "wake up call" should be for the European Onion, because those reasons sound similar to the arguments for Brexit.

Is Irexit coming?
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 10:15 am
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
It sounds like the "wake up call" should be for the European Onion, because those reasons sound similar to the arguments for Brexit.

Is Irexit coming?
But I thought all major parties in Ireland, including Sinn Fein, were solidly pro-EU? (This is just an assumption on my part I may be wrong.)

But as for the people, or the electorate, my guess is that they are supportive of EU membership because it reinforces independence, economic and political, from the UK.
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 10:28 am
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by robin1234 View Post
But I thought all major parties in Ireland, including Sinn Fein, were solidly pro-EU? (This is just an assumption on my part I may be wrong.) ....
I thought that was true too, but clearly Irish voters want to shake things up a bit, though doing so by electing Sinn Fein to power is an interesting way to do it! One up-shot will presumably be to dampen talk of NI moving closer to reunion with the Republic because of Brexit and border issues.
... But as for the people, or the electorate, my guess is that they are supportive of EU membership because it reinforces independence, economic and political, from the UK.
I don't know why you'd guess that, and under Ireland's circumstances (of EO membership) I don't know why the electorate would blame anyone other than the EO for excessive immigration, and exiting the EO would be the only way that they can regain control of immigration, except from the UK.

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Old Feb 10th 2020, 10:32 am
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

The only "excessive immigration" is in the UK, and even then, it's only a perception. The data says otherwise.
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 10:34 am
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
The only "excessive immigration" is in the UK, and even then, it's only a perception. The data says otherwise.
Did you even read post #1?
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 10:35 am
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Its a populist rationale, but the data says otherwise.
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 10:37 am
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Sinn Féin is arguably the most Eurosceptic, or rather the least Europhile, mainstream Irish political party, as the left traditionally was in the UK. The Irish electorate are solidly pro-EU, so Irexit is not on the cards but it’s going to be very interesting to see whether there will be a rise in Irish Eurosceptism over the next few years with EU-wide corporate tax harmonisation, PESCO’s effect on Irish neutrality and Ireland becoming a net contributor to the EU budget.

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Old Feb 10th 2020, 10:49 am
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

From a Guardian editorial:

"British observers should be more than usually careful not to misread this result. Ireland’s 2020 election was not about Brexit (which only 1% in the exit poll said was important) or the border. Sinn Féin owes its relative success more to a groundswell of young voters’ impatience on domestic economic and welfare issues rather than to a resurgence of old-style republicanism."

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...the-status-quo

And here from another report:

"Sinn Féin has tapped desire for a leftwing alternative to fix healthcare and housing – and shake up a system many consider ossified.O’Brien said referendums on same-sex marriage and abortion had politicised young people and taught them that their vote counted, energy that Sinn Féin was now channeling. "

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...y-shane-obrien

And from the BBC:

"Left-leaning Sinn Féin managed to successfully tap into the public anger felt in the Republic of Ireland over issues that have dogged centre-right Fine Gael for a number of years - a shortage of housing, rocketing rents and homelessness, analysts suggest. That is despite the fact the country is forecast to have one of the fastest growing economies in the EU in 2020.They were dubbed "the problems of success" by former Finance Minister Michael Noonan as far back as 2015."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51441410

None of this seems to have much resemblance to the kind of right-wing populism that the UK and the rest of Europe have to deal with, but I'll wait for someone who knows Irish politics more than I do to comment. Macliam about?



Last edited by Lion in Winter; Feb 10th 2020 at 11:14 am. Reason: Grammar
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 11:26 am
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Macliam about?
Your wish is my command!

Ummmm... no, Sinn Féin have NOT won the election and no, Sinn Féin will NOT form the next government - Ireland does not use FPTP.

There seems to be a woeful ignorance of Irish politics and a lot of wishful thinking going on.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51441410
Elections in Ireland use the Single Transferrable Vote form of Proportional Representation, so voters rank each of several candidates by preference and each of the large constituencies has multiple TDs (MPs). Sinn Féin has just won 24.5% of FIRST preference votes, Fianna Fáil has won 22% and the current government party, Fine Gael, has won 21%, so interesting, but not conclusive thus far. Just over half the seats have actually been declared, but since Sinn Féin has only fielded 42 candidates in the 39 constituencies, it will fall far short of the 80 needed to form a government, even if all of them win - and there are insufficient "others", outside of the two main parties, for them to form a government without the support of either FF or FG.

The SF vote IS a protest vote, mainly from the young, against the stasis of the 2-party system after the meltdown of Labour in 2016. However, I'm sorry to disappoint our EU-hating subscribers, the EU has had sod all to do with the result - except a "punishment" for Varadkar's people for too much focus on Brexit and not enough on domestic issues. The EU is not even mentioned in SFs policy document (https://www.sinnfein.ie/policies) because it is simply NOT an issue in Ireland, despite wishful thinking from some in the UK. Equally, unification is a key policy for SF, but not necessarily a driver for the electorate - what has given Sinn Féin the edge is the fact that it is NOT Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael (or, by extension, Labour who were previously the third party) who are blamed for the current domestic issues. Ireland is booming, but it doesn't feel that way to the young, who can't buy a house, can't rent a house and have a national health service that is in crisis - that's the reason for the protest. Ireland has the youngest population in Europe

So, the outcome will be talks between FF, FG and SF - made difficult because both FF and FG have previously said they won't work with SF - and because Mary Lou made that crass statement about "forming a government" without the big 2, which she can't. There is a lot of humble pie to be eaten and the outcome will have to be an alliance of some kind between SF&FF, or FG&SF - or FF&FG (as in the outgoing goverment), either as a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement. Or, it might just be another election........

Last edited by macliam; Feb 10th 2020 at 11:32 am.
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 12:01 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Having got through that lot - a couple of points of speculation on my part....

Firstly, SF must be kicking themselves that they didn't stand more candidates - this is likely to change in any re-run of the election, but the opportunity may have been lost. SF will have to be VERY careful not to alienate voters in the talks to come.... if they lose the protest vote, they will lose popularity. They will have to clarify their suggested policies, because fine words butter no parsnips.

Secondly, SF are VERY unlikely to make the EU a part of their policy focus in the Republic for the time being. The EU is popular and the negative attributes ascribed to it in the UK simply don't register with the majority of voters - Ireland's electorate are younger than the UKs and don't hark back to any halcion days of empire! I would agree that this may change once Ireland becomes a net contributor and/if EU policies threaten Irish neutrality or growth, but there's a mountain to climb before Irexit would even register as a possible.

Thirdly, SF may increase the focus on unification, but are unlikely to make it a key policy in the Republic - if they did, they'd run the risk of doing what FG have been punished for - focusing on things beyond the current domestic crisis. Unification is seen as something that can only be driven by the North - and which will disrupt life in the Republic.... so whilst it's an aim, it's not a driver.

Lastly, the unexpected surge for SF may well push FF & FG back together to re-establish the duopoly they are comfortable with. They might see their rivalry as being less important than countering a threeat from SF.
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 1:44 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by robin1234 View Post
But I thought all major parties in Ireland, including Sinn Fein, were solidly pro-EU? (This is just an assumption on my part I may be wrong.)
Sinn Fein are traditionally a socialist/worker's party, so large neoliberal institutions don't really sit too well with them. As maclaia said though, they probably wouldn't mess around with it right away without any kind of serious majority.

I don't know what to make of this. As a socialist, it is nice to see left wing parties win elections, but as someone from the north, it feels a bit weird to be happy about it. Though maybe the southern Shinners are different from the nordies (macliam please confirm). Either way, interesting result.
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 2:56 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing View Post
Sinn Fein are traditionally a socialist/worker's party, so large neoliberal institutions don't really sit too well with them. As maclaia said though, they probably wouldn't mess around with it right away without any kind of serious majority.

I don't know what to make of this. As a socialist, it is nice to see left wing parties win elections, but as someone from the north, it feels a bit weird to be happy about it. Though maybe the southern Shinners are different from the nordies (macliam please confirm). Either way, interesting result.
Yeah, difficult to grasp, politics in the Republic..... so a short lesson.
Firstly, to all those linking Sinn Féin with the IRA.... it always was and always will be, but so are the other two major parties.
- Sinn Féin as a political party predates the 1916 rebellion let alone the IRA, being founded in 1905.
- The Irish Volunteers from the Anglo-Irish war were proclaimed the Irish Republican Army by the first Dáil Éireann after their almost total victory in the 1918 election.
- Fianna Fáil was founded after the civil war from anti-treaty polirticians, due to Sinn Féin's policy of abstentionism from Dáil Éireann (thus connected to the IRA)
- Fine Gael are indirectly linked to the pro-treaty IRA or Free Staters (and thus connected to the IRA)
- Sinn Féin (and the IRA) became more Marxist in outlook, leading to a split in 1970 when Provisional Sinn Féin was formed (the original group being rebadged as "official")
- "Official" Sinn Féin were Dublin-based and focused, the "Provos" were focused on the "troubles" in the North, with a high concentration of northern leaders.
- The Official IRA declared a ceasefire in 1972, Official Sinn Féin became the "Workers Party of Ireland" in 1982 and the the Provisional faction took over the titles.
- The (Provisional) IRA and (Provisional) Sinn Féin declared a cease-fire in 1994 (although this was briefly suspended after the UK government excluded them from talks)
- The 1998 Belfast (Good Friday) agreement saw this ceasefire made "permanent" and Sinn Féin concentrate on the political struggle for Irish unity.
- Certain factions have been (and are) opposed to this position, leading to the "Continuity IRA" and the "Real IRA" (and now the "New" IRA") with their political wings.

Although the Provisionals broke away from (Official) Sinn Féin over overt marxist ideology, they remained a socialist organization - and, as correctly stated, are opposed to the EUs federal ambitions and neoliberal policies - but they support the EUs stance on human rights and equality (and its regional focus). So it is not gung-ho pro-EU but soft Eurosceptic. Given the positive impact EU membership has had on Ireland and its popularity, it's unlikely that this will manifest as anything more in the near future.

Curently, Sinn Féin are feeding the need for a change to the 2-party duopoly that has grown up in the Republic since Labour (the third party) imploded in 2016. There are a large number of "independent " TDs (MPs) and smaller groupings, but not enough to form an axis with Sinn Féin to exclude the "big two".

The younger voters in Ireland are those most likely to vote Sinn Féin, due to domestic issues around housing, homelessness and the healthcare system. Whilst there is only a difference of about 2% between eligible Irish and UK voters under 64 , this becomes 5% fewer for those over 65. Whilst seemingly small, this difference in the voter profile is what has driven the liberalisation of the past few years in Ireland.

The changes, both north and south, have certainly been big - but I think they'll need to keep saying "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day Will Come) for a while yet......


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Old Feb 10th 2020, 3:14 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
Yeah, difficult to grasp, politics in the Republic..... so a short lesson.
Firstly, to all those linking Sinn Féin with the IRA.... it always was and always will be, but so are the other two major parties.
- Sinn Féin as a political party predates the 1916 rebellion let alone the IRA, being founded in 1905.
- The Irish Volunteers from the Anglo-Irish war were proclaimed the Irish Republican Army by the first Dáil Éireann after their almost total victory in the 1918 election.
- Fianna Fáil was founded after the civil war from anti-treaty polirticians, due to Sinn Féin's policy of abstentionism from Dáil Éireann (thus connected to the IRA)
- Fine Gael are indirectly linked to the pro-treaty IRA or Free Staters (and thus connected to the IRA)
- Sinn Féin (and the IRA) became more Marxist in outlook, leading to a split in 1970 when Provisional Sinn Féin was formed (the original group being rebadged as "official")
- "Official" Sinn Féin were Dublin-based and focused, the "Provos" were focused on the "troubles" in the North, with a high concentration of northern leaders.
- The Official IRA declared a ceasefire in 1972, Official Sinn Féin became the "Workers Party of Ireland" in 1982 and the the Provisional faction took over the titles.
- The (Provisional) IRA and (Provisional) Sinn Féin declared a cease-fire in 1994 (although this was briefly suspended after the UK government excluded them from talks)
- The 1998 Belfast (Good Friday) agreement saw this ceasefire made "permanent" and Sinn Féin concentrate on the political struggle for Irish unity.
- Certain factions have been (and are) opposed to this position, leading to the "Continuity IRA" and the "Real IRA" (and now the "New" IRA") with their political wings.

Although the Provisionals broke away from (Official) Sinn Féin over overt marxist ideology, they remained a socialist organization - and, as correctly stated, are opposed to the EUs federal ambitions and neoliberal policies - but they support the EUs stance on human rights and equality (and its regional focus). So it is not gung-ho pro-EU but soft Eurosceptic. Given the positive impact EU membership has had on Ireland and its popularity, it's unlikely that this will manifest as anything more in the near future.

Curently, Sinn Féin are feeding the need for a change to the 2-party duopoly that has grown up in the Republic since Labour (the third party) imploded in 2016. There are a large number of "independent " TDs (MPs) and smaller groupings, but not enough to form an axis with Sinn Féin to exclude the "big two".

The younger voters in Ireland are those most likely to vote Sinn Féin, due to domestic issues around housing, homelessness and the healthcare system. Whilst there is only a difference of about 2% between eligible Irish and UK voters under 64 , this becomes 5% fewer for those over 65. Whilst seemingly small, this difference in the voter profile is what has driven the liberalisation of the past few years in Ireland.

The changes, both north and south, have certainly been big - but I think they'll need to keep saying "Tiocfaidh ár lá" (Our Day Will Come) for a while yet......
Thanks

I guess, to be fair, there really would be no Republic of Ireland without the IRA in some form, and of course the IRA that was is not the same as the drug dealers and spides up north today, in the same way that the UVF of today is about as far removed from the 'Boys of Ulster marching to the Somme' as one can get. But, that being said, if Sinn Fein are becoming a louder leftist voice in Ireland, then we must look at the positives. Ireland has gone through a lot of change for the good of late, long may it continue.

This is still a journey for me, as I continue to let go of the prejudices I am ashamed to admit I held in the past. Recent enough that I made some edgy jokes in this forum that I am not proud of, so I have much atoning to do yet. As time goes on though, the more attractive the prospect of one Ireland starts to become.
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Old Feb 10th 2020, 3:42 pm
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Default Re: Sinn Fein Win in Ireland

I had a look at the Ireland voting system this morning but it made my head spin.
I decided just to sit back and wait for the result.
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