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Post EU Referendum...Part II

Post EU Referendum...Part II

Old Nov 20th 2020, 8:13 pm
  #23641  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
Speak for yourself, mate! I brought my own
Lesson learned, there.
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Old Nov 20th 2020, 8:30 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing View Post
This is like a magic roundabout but without the benefit of psychotropic drugs.



Been there, done that.
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Old Nov 20th 2020, 8:49 pm
  #23643  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Just a thought ---You must have known the "Wombles of Wimbledon"!
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Old Nov 20th 2020, 9:11 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Good stuff.
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Old Nov 20th 2020, 10:15 pm
  #23645  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Got the t-shirt

"Bong!" said Zebedee..
"I've have enough already!" said Dylan. "Ermintrude's looking a funny colour."

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Just a thought ---You must have known the "Wombles of Wimbledon"!
At least until they moved to Milton Keynes...
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Old Nov 21st 2020, 7:00 am
  #23646  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Yes I agree that there are serious disputes in Poland. (However the President has only just been elected and it will be years before a change of Government.) Keeping back of Covid money by the EU because of the veto will certainly make many of the population unhappy---and would certainly affect a survey----similarly Hungary with the added opposition to immigration enforced by the EU.
You do not give a reason why Poland was left out of the survey when it has a large population!
Would it really be soooooo bad if the majority of Europeans are happy and content with being a member of the EU? I don't even understand what you are arguing about. If it helps you there was a report on German radio recently about Poland. And the majority of the Polish are still in favour of the EU despite the dispute. I think if you took a look at Scotland you will not find quite same result vis-a-vis the UK.
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Old Nov 21st 2020, 8:34 am
  #23647  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Assanah View Post
Would it really be soooooo bad if the majority of Europeans are happy and content with being a member of the EU? I don't even understand what you are arguing about. If it helps you there was a report on German radio recently about Poland. And the majority of the Polish are still in favour of the EU despite the dispute. I think if you took a look at Scotland you will not find quite same result vis-a-vis the UK.
Quite.

As we've now gone down this byway, it's also worth mentioning that Italy and France, which both appeared in that survey and which are both individually considerably more populous than Poland and Hungary combined, are also both less enthusiastic about membership of the EU in answer to the question "Do you think that you country's membership of the EU is a good thing / a bad thing / neither a good thing nor a bad thing".

Pew Research could certainly have done a lot better if they were cherry-picking nations in order to skew results.
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Old Nov 21st 2020, 9:38 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Assanah View Post
Would it really be soooooo bad if the majority of Europeans are happy and content with being a member of the EU? I don't even understand what you are arguing about. If it helps you there was a report on German radio recently about Poland. And the majority of the Polish are still in favour of the EU despite the dispute. I think if you took a look at Scotland you will not find quite same result vis-a-vis the UK.
I agree with your views. I was pointing out the 'shortcomings' of the Poll. As with many such 'polls' ---they get the answer they want!
In fact Hungary is more of a problem for the EU than Poland,.

(I am interested in Polish politics--you will know that along with (another country) they are the largest group of foreign origin in UK. So many friends, neighbours etc of Polish origin. It is the older Polish generation ---staunch Catholics, which keep the present Government in power, the young and women are now getting a 'voice'. (However there is resentment regarding a particular politician** who--- 'ran to Europe')

** Scourge of Mrs May regarding Brexit.
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Old Nov 21st 2020, 9:58 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
I agree with your views. I was pointing out the 'shortcomings' of the Poll. As with many such 'polls' ---they get the answer they want!
You. Are. A. Hoot, Bipat.

An absoulute HOOT!!

Promise me you'll never, ever desert us.
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Old Nov 21st 2020, 11:44 pm
  #23650  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
I agree with your views. I was pointing out the 'shortcomings' of the Poll. As with many such 'polls' ---they get the answer they want!
We're all very fortunate to have someone with your expertise in polling, who's able to point out to us the shortcomings in polls commissioned by professional pollsters.

If only those professional pollsters had the benefit of your expertise. They'd be able to eradicate those shortcomings that you're able to identify.
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Old Nov 22nd 2020, 10:18 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by GeneralPowerpoint View Post
We're all very fortunate to have someone with your expertise in polling, who's able to point out to us the shortcomings in polls commissioned by professional pollsters.

If only those professional pollsters had the benefit of your expertise. They'd be able to eradicate those shortcomings that you're able to identify.

Perhaps you will explain why -- when a 'poll' referendum with legal rules is held and millions of people with voting rights can respond and vote; and millions do---- many on TIO consider the result was not valid!
However when 'professional' pollsters run a 'poll' and a few thousand are invited to respond ----the result is valid?
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Old Nov 22nd 2020, 11:37 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Perhaps you will explain why -- when a 'poll' referendum with legal rules is held and millions of people with voting rights can respond and vote; and millions do---- many on TIO consider the result was not valid!
However when 'professional' pollsters run a 'poll' and a few thousand are invited to respond ----the result is valid?
Simple
Results of polls are only considered valid by people who agree with the result
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Old Nov 22nd 2020, 1:30 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Perhaps you will explain why -- when a 'poll' referendum with legal rules is held and millions of people with voting rights can respond and vote; and millions do---- many on TIO consider the result was not valid!
I presume you're referring to the Brexit referendum, and I dare to suggest that most people on TIO do in fact consider the result of the Brexit referendum valid, within its terms of reference (such as that in legal terms, it was only advisory).

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
However when 'professional' pollsters run a 'poll' and a few thousand are invited to respond ----the result is valid?
"Valid" doesn't really have a defined meaning in terms of a survey, and certainly not a meaning comparable to that of an official referendum. Valid as what? I think dave_j makes some very reasonable points. These boil down to the fact that the survey is what it is, how transparent its survey methodology was (reasonably transparent, it seems), and what conclusions an intelligent and educated person may draw from the methodology and the results.
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Old Nov 22nd 2020, 1:36 pm
  #23654  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Perhaps you will explain why -- when a 'poll' referendum with legal rules is held and millions of people with voting rights can respond and vote; and millions do---- many on TIO consider the result was not valid!
However when 'professional' pollsters run a 'poll' and a few thousand are invited to respond ----the result is valid?
Again, Bipat? The referendum had legally-binding rules on it being advisory, and that the result would be used to inform Parliament and a debate scheduled.. The Tories misled the public by saying the result would be implemented. And the courts had to rule that it was Parliament's responsibility under the legal-binding rules, for which the judges were branded 'traitors'.

No-one tried rewriting the polling company's rules as far as I can see. That's clearly not the case regarding the referendum.

Originally Posted by Fredbargate View Post
Simple
Results of polls are only considered valid by people who agree with the result
96% of those who voted in Gibraltar voted to Remain in the EU. Do you consider that vote valid?
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Old Nov 22nd 2020, 2:16 pm
  #23655  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Fredbargate View Post
Simple
Results of polls are only considered valid by people who agree with the result
I can certainly accept the results of a poll which show a majority against my preference, if that's what you're getting at.

No problem with that at all, provided the poll isn't hopelessly compromised. Personally, I think sampling at non volatile moments with neutral statements / questions gives a better idea of the real state of public opinion than when the respondents have been deluged with toxic propaganda immediately prior to being asked a question but any reputable poll showing, for example, a rise in desire to leave the EU, or a majority in favour of that, wouldn't brook any argument from me on the matter of its validity.
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