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Post EU Referendum...Part II

Post EU Referendum...Part II

Old Nov 17th 2020, 1:48 am
  #23551  
 
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian View Post
You seem to be interested as you keep replying. It is simple Leave won the vote and Brexit has occurred. Neither of us currently live in the UK so why should we give a shite especially when it was decided I could not vote in the Referendum.
I mean nobody's interested in childish provocations.

I'm interested in what happens in both my countries.
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Old Nov 17th 2020, 7:44 am
  #23552  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

I thought about replying to the post about Trump's actions being similar to the 'remain' actions regarding Brexit but thought, no; there is bound to be an argument!! Yep I was right! Anyway, here I am commenting on it after reading the last few posts.

There are similarities but they are meaningless in respect of the two (Brexit and Trump's defeat) issues. Quite obviously the two issues are completely different but the reactions of the two are similar. I don't think that can be denied but they are unconnected. I'm not so sure that If 'remain' had won the E.U. election then the resulting legal cases and complaint would have been carried out by 'leavers' in such an aggressive fashion, I don't think so. For my part I would have accepted the vote without complaint. ( yes I would have been sorry!!) As for the American election: If Trump had won would Biden have carried on as Trump has? Somehow I don't think so.

As for the two elections I'm pleased that Britain has left the E.U. and I'm sorry that Trump lost. With President Trump I think he has been very good for the USA though there is no doubt in my mind that his behaviour at the moment is ridiculous and is doing himself no credit whatsoever. As for Britain leaving the E.U.: I see no reason why Britain shouldn't be as successful in the future as it has been in the past.



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Old Nov 17th 2020, 8:09 am
  #23553  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
. I'm not so sure that If 'remain' had won the E.U. election then the resulting legal cases and complaint would have been carried out by 'leavers' in such an aggressive fashion, I don't think so. For my part I would have accepted the vote without complaint.
So would I

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
As for the American election: If Trump had won would Biden have carried on as Trump has? Somehow I don't think so.
Agreed

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post

As for the two elections I'm pleased that Britain has left the E.U. and I'm sorry that Trump lost.
Agreed every country requires a shake up now and again

Originally Posted by KJMW View Post
I see no reason why Britain shouldn't be as successful in the future as it has been in the past.
The bigest threat the UK faces is Biden rearming the IRA.



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Old Nov 17th 2020, 8:14 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Fredbargate View Post
So would I



Agreed



Agreed every country requires a shake up now and again



The bigest threat the UK faces is Biden rearming the IRA.
There are factions in the USA who do support the IRA, then again there are people all over the world who do. I doubt though that Biden would go down that road. If the IRA want weapons they can obtain them almost anywhere.
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Old Nov 17th 2020, 8:25 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian View Post
Ever since this thread started I have looked at the thread from a neutral view and taking no one side.
Good one! You should say that more often.

Oh .... I see you have.

Apart from which, your most recent summaries, and those of the other neutral Brexiter, show that you're really not paying any attention to the content of the posts when framing your narratives.

Anyway ...
Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian View Post
Now you need to start looking at the future and coming up with a plan to get the UK back into the EU where the country isn't split in half if that is what the majority want. Hell you could have another Referendum if you want so what could possibly go wrong.?
I've certainly never been of the mind that, once out, the UK would ever re-join the EU and I've said as much.

Nor did I ever really have much expectation that leaving wouldn't happen, although it certainly wasn't a completely foregone conclusion until after the last election, which was the subject of some of my comments on here. That, and the inevitability of further public input at a time when many were saying otherwise and that the government had the mandate to do as it pleased, including crashing out without an agreement, which it didn't.

However, I do think that whatever Mr Johnson triumphantly flourishes, hailing it a great success, whether that be a very narrow agreement or none (or as he would phrase it, an Australian-style arrangement), will, of necessity, change over time into a much closer relationship, with much of what is considered too toxic today coming back into play by popular demand in years to come. Only after it becomes blindingly obvious to people what constraints the UK is under by being shut out of various areas, though. And only when the UK is prepared to make the necessary compromises. Next year will be something of a watershed but it won't stop there.
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Old Nov 17th 2020, 4:20 pm
  #23556  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
Good one! You should say that more often.

Oh .... I see you have.

Apart from which, your most recent summaries, and those of the other neutral Brexiter, show that you're really not paying any attention to the content of the posts when framing your narratives.

Anyway ...

I've certainly never been of the mind that, once out, the UK would ever re-join the EU and I've said as much.

Nor did I ever really have much expectation that leaving wouldn't happen, although it certainly wasn't a completely foregone conclusion until after the last election, which was the subject of some of my comments on here. That, and the inevitability of further public input at a time when many were saying otherwise and that the government had the mandate to do as it pleased, including crashing out without an agreement, which it didn't.

However, I do think that whatever Mr Johnson triumphantly flourishes, hailing it a great success, whether that be a very narrow agreement or none (or as he would phrase it, an Australian-style arrangement), will, of necessity, change over time into a much closer relationship, with much of what is considered too toxic today coming back into play by popular demand in years to come. Only after it becomes blindingly obvious to people what constraints the UK is under by being shut out of various areas, though. And only when the UK is prepared to make the necessary compromises. Next year will be something of a watershed but it won't stop there.
Whatever Johnson & Co manage to achieve/screw up in the next days concerning deals, I feel that any shift in UK mindset as regards the UK (**) potentially asking to re-join the EU will take a couple of generations to shake out.

Always assuming that the EU doesn't just pack up laughing if approached.

(**) Given last evening's blunder concerning Scottish devolution disaster and the subsequent noise coming out of Labour and the SNP, I wonder how many allies Westminster will have 20-odd years from now.
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Old Nov 17th 2020, 6:03 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by BuckinghamshireBoy View Post
Whatever Johnson & Co manage to achieve/screw up in the next days concerning deals, I feel that any shift in UK mindset as regards the UK (**) potentially asking to re-join the EU will take a couple of generations to shake out.

Always assuming that the EU doesn't just pack up laughing if approached.

(**) Given last evening's blunder concerning Scottish devolution disaster and the subsequent noise coming out of Labour and the SNP, I wonder how many allies Westminster will have 20-odd years from now.
The mindset already seems to be on the shift, if this is to be believed : Majority of EU population feel good about bloc, study finds
In the UK, which formally left the EU on 31 January this year to enter an 11-month transition period, 60% of respondents said they now held a favourable view of the bloc, an increase of six percentage points over last year and a historic high for Pew’s global attitudes survey.
However, we've seen at first hand how pliable public opinion can be when sujected to a barrage of disgraceful and profoundly dishonest propaganda, and the people who foist that upon us aren't going anywhere soon.

Plus, rejoining under current rules would mean acepting full FoM, becoming a member of the Eurozone and joining Schengen as well as not having the famous rebate nor any of the raft of opt outs (with opt-in option), all of which, including those which barely featured on the Leave radar this time round, would suddenly acquire massive importance in the future.

Absence makes the heart grow fonder and all that but I still reckon any approximation even in the longer term will be less about rejoining and more sorting out the practicalities of what's most damaging by its lack.
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Old Nov 19th 2020, 9:27 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

The new Brexit normal ... UK jobs being done overseas.
Double whammy : No extra immigrants AND much cheaper.
To be fair, the UK only had 4.5 years to prepare themselves for the inevitable.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-europe-india
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Old Nov 19th 2020, 9:46 am
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
The mindset already seems to be on the shift, if this is to be believed : Majority of EU population feel good about bloc, study finds

.
'Majority of respondents' does not equal 'majority of population'.

(Study of just eight EU countries!)

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Old Nov 19th 2020, 12:14 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Former Lancastrian has suggested that we could,at some point,ask to rejoin the EU.Many of us posters actually live in an EU country & find that we British have become a nuisance & "good riddance"to us.At least that is very much the feeling in Spain,although not so much by the Spanish,who have always found us odd(my son-in-law is one)but by the other nations.My town is mostly Scandinavian,mostly Norwegian nationals who are not fully in the EU but successfully operate on a partial basis.They do not understand why WE want to cut ourselves off so completely from this group of European nations.Getting back in,I think,would be too big a step to even consider.As for the idea of"what the heck we don´t live in the Uk anyway",some of us may later decide that indeed we may want to return for a variety of reasons.That is why we protest at the loss of our vote in our birth country & other issues.Every week there seems to be another hurdle,the latest being closure of UK Bank accounts for those who reside only in the EU.Next our Health Card has to be exchanged even though mine states it is valid for a few years yet.We shall be like stateless people in January,no vote anywhere & no one who is able to speak up for us if we have a grievance.Please don´t say we shall still have a British Embassy to intervene or I may have a laughing spasm.
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Old Nov 19th 2020, 12:31 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
'Majority of respondents' does not equal 'majority of population'.

(Study of just eight EU countries!)
Majority of respondents almost certainly does equal majority of the population. You can be about 95% sure.

That's how the science of polling works. You interview a microcosm of the population thats large enough to draw conclusions about the whole.
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Old Nov 19th 2020, 1:10 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by GeneralPowerpoint View Post
Majority of respondents almost certainly does equal majority of the population. You can be about 95% sure.

That's how the science of polling works. You interview a microcosm of the population thats large enough to draw conclusions about the whole.
Why 95% sure? Why not 90% or 80% sure? Was the microcosm large enough? By your rationale we need never bother with the expense of elections!
You might ask why out of 27 countries were only eight chosen? Would the result have been the same if Poland, Hungary, Greece had been included?
The former two countries causing a crisis for the EU at the moment!
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Old Nov 19th 2020, 1:39 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Why 95% sure? Why not 90% or 80% sure?
Statistics. The less people you interview the less sure you are. The more people you interview the more sure you are. Until you interview everyone at which point you're 100% sure.

Reputable research organisations interview enough people to get to an industry standard 95% confidence level. i.e. you can be 95% sure the result reflects the population as a whole.

Was the microcosm large enough?
Yes.

You might ask why out of 27 countries were only eight chosen?
Those eight countries represent the majority of the EU population.
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Old Nov 19th 2020, 2:01 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by GeneralPowerpoint View Post
Statistics. The less people you interview the less sure you are. The more people you interview the more sure you are. Until you interview everyone at which point you're 100% sure.

Reputable research organisations interview enough people to get to an industry standard 95% confidence level. i.e. you can be 95% sure the result reflects the population as a whole.

Yes.
Those eight countries represent the majority of the EU population.
You didn't answer two of my questions!
Why do we bother with the expense of general elections?
What would have been the result if Hungary, Poland and Greece had been included in the reported poll which you say was representative of all EU countries?
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Old Nov 19th 2020, 2:08 pm
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum...Part II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
You didn't answer two of my questions!
Why do we bother with the expense of general elections?
What would have been the result if Hungary, Poland and Greece had been included in the reported poll which you say was representative of all EU countries?
I'm not going to answer every tangential question you ask.

I'm explaining to you how polling works as it appears to be a subject which confuses you.

the reported poll which you say was representative of all EU countries?
Actually it's Pew Research Centre who say their research is representative of the EU.

If you object to that I'm sure you can get in touch to let them know you object to their conclusions.

I expect they'll be excited to hear from you and to be given the opportunity to benefit from your expertise in this field.
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