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Post EU Referendum

Post EU Referendum

Old Jan 27th 2017, 3:53 pm
  #12061  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by la mancha View Post
Pre-referendum report

A UK decision to leave the European Union would deprive the EU of one of its best-rated members, leaving the bloc and its investment bank vulnerable to credit rating downgrade.

While ratings agencies have warned a vote to leave could hurt the UK's rating, a Brexit could also have consequences for institutions which Britain supports via its EU membership.

Britain accounts for some 16 percent of the EU's nominal gross domestic product, makes a net annual budget contribution of about 6.5 billion euros ($7.2 billion) and is among the highest-rated of the EU's 28 members.

"European entities which would be most affected in the case of Brexit are the European Union itself, with a risk of being downgraded, and the European Investment Bank (EIB)," said Societe Generale strategist Cristina Costa in a note.

Post-referendum

While the statutes of the bank make it clear that the shareholders of the EIB are member states of the European Union, whether "there is an option to change that and allow a former member state to remain a member … is completely open to speculation. So I think we should not exclude any possibility", he said. (Werner Hoyer, EIB President)

Why? Because of the difficulty in unravelling and valuing Britain’s holdings. The 27 would have to buy the UK out. Can they afford it? No. And without Britain’s contribution together with a downgrade of the EU and the EIB, investment in the EU will be in peril.

Downgrades plus less funding for European businesses and projects equals disaster for the European Union still struggling from the crisis of 2008.

Britain holds the strongest card of all: the financial security of the European Union. What we need is an amicable solution. May knows what she is doing when she says we will walk away if we do not get one.
which century do you live in?
The phrase little englander could not have a better example than you.
How is a country declining in almost every global league of comparison the influence in global affairs you pretend it is,
That is the problem with far too many brexiters a massive inferiority complex.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 3:54 pm
  #12062  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing View Post
Applying for permanent residence would probably be the mechanism by which they achieve it, but I don't know exactly how they would adjuticate eligibility.

I mean, your 'negative' example was such an extreme one anyway, the vast majority of cases are just going to be ordinary working people who don't deserve to be made homeless on a whim due to the UK leaving the EU.
I wish it was but sadly it happens a lot. Recent figures show high levels of homelessness among EU nationals in the UK.

Rough sleeping rises at appalling rate, charity says, as figures show 16% rise - BBC News

But yes I agree with you. In the majority of cases where someone has a clean record, a stable job, English ability and has settled here then it will be in nobody's interest to forcibly remove them.

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing View Post
They would be granted leave to remain and receive the appropriate stamp (is that still how they do it?) in the passport, I would imagine.
If it is the same document that my girlfriend has then it is a biometric ID card. I believe that people who ordinarily require a visa for travel to the UK also get an clearance sticker added to their passport where as non-visa nationals don't. My guess is that EU citizens would likely fit into the first category.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 3:58 pm
  #12063  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing View Post
Given that, especially in the light of Corbyn's recent three line whip, Brexit is going to happen sooner or later, this should be paramount for Parliament now.

As long as they can secure a decent trade deal with the EU, and keep the border between Ireland and UK 'open' (I read a report that the 'hard border' would actually be in Irish airports and ports with data sharing between Dublin and London to track migration), and keep everything amicable and above board, I think it can be made to work. Some kind of happy medium between a 'hard' and 'soft' Brexit, or a 'lukewarm' Brexit if you will, is the answer. None of this crap where one side tries to stick it to the other with tariffs or draconian visa requirements. A solid, fair trade agreement and some kind of system similar to the Visa Waiver Program in the US is the answer here.
This is what is called cherry-picking by the EU. It won't happen. The problem really is that the UK doesn't want to give anything but wants all the goodies that come from access to a big market.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 4:01 pm
  #12064  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Assanah View Post
The problem really is that the UK doesn't want to give anything but wants all the goodies that come from access to a big market.
That's not the case at all but whether or not Britain gets tariff free access to the EU is really up to the EU to decide.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 4:02 pm
  #12065  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

[QUOTE=Lion in Winter;12163176]I know, I'm quoting myself, but - see above.

It's just business, and in all likelihood from the business and migration perspective what we get won't be all that much different from what we have now. Food will probably be more expensive, since we import so much of it, but there are bound to be deals struck with the EU as a body (May calls it a "comprehensive trade agreement") that is likely to be the same thing just with another name and no doubt a whole separate and just-as-large amount of "red tape" to be gone through - just different tape.

Migration will presumably be managed by the easy granting of visas and work permits, probably practically "on demand", but the politicians can position that as "controlling our borders" even if the numbers of people moving about remain largely unchanged.

What will be lost, warts and all, is the collaborative European project that supported not only business, but the arts, scientific research, and cultural organizations. It helped us to collaborate, rather than hide behind nationalistic fences, and it is the populist nationalism that worries me most right now both on continental Europe and in the UK (and in the US for that matter).[/QUOTE]

Are you saying that such collaboration will stop, or that we don't have such collaboration with Non-EU countries? Commonwealth Arts and Cultural Foundation just one example.

Are you saying that visas and work permits should favour those Europeans from EU countries rather than the rest of Europe and world wide?
Wouldn't that be rather 'hiding behind fences' and 'populist'?

However, according to some 'remainers' here--EU citizens would find difficulty in filling in visa forms, unlike Non-EU citizens who seem to have managed it without difficulty.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 4:04 pm
  #12066  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
I wish it was but sadly it happens a lot. Recent figures show high levels of homelessness among EU nationals in the UK.

Rough sleeping rises at appalling rate, charity says, as figures show 16% rise - BBC News

But yes I agree with you. In the majority of cases where someone has a clean record, a stable job, English ability and has settled here then it will be in nobody's interest to forcibly remove them.
There shouldn't be high levels of homelessness among any economic or ethnic group of any kind in any country, least of all one like the UK. I hope this is something they seek to address in the new, inward-looking, post-Brexit UK.

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
If it is the same document that my girlfriend has then it is a biometric ID card. I believe that people who ordinarily require a visa for travel to the UK also get an clearance sticker added to their passport where as non-visa nationals don't. My guess is that EU citizens would likely fit into the first category.
OK, they get a UK equivalent of a green card, then. I don't know why I thought it was a passport stamp. Anyway, that will be the document issued for any current EU nationals in the UK, who are 'grandfathered in' post Brexit.

Outside of residence, would-be visitors the EU member states will likely be granted visa-free travel for up to 6 months, in the same way that those from the US, Canada, Australia, Japan etc are now.

If handled correctly, Brexit shouldn't have a huge impact on tourism between the UK and the EU, which will have economic benefits of course, and a new system will be put in place for issuing visas and work permits for residence. One would hope, also, that the ridiculous income requirement for non-EU spouses of British citizens will be revised, because the only thing that I was opposed to regarding the membership of the EU was that I was essentially barred from returning to live because I wouldn't be able to earn enough to bring my wife and children with me.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 4:08 pm
  #12067  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
I wish it was but sadly it happens a lot. Recent figures show high levels of homelessness among EU nationals in the UK.

Rough sleeping rises at appalling rate, charity says, as figures show 16% rise - BBC News

But yes I agree with you. In the majority of cases where someone has a clean record, a stable job, English ability and has settled here then it will be in nobody's interest to forcibly remove them.



If it is the same document that my girlfriend has then it is a biometric ID card. I believe that people who ordinarily require a visa for travel to the UK also get an clearance sticker added to their passport where as non-visa nationals don't. My guess is that EU citizens would likely fit into the first category.
Erm, according to the article you linked to, the vast MINORITY are EU nationals, and an even smaller number of non-EU nationals.

This has always been a statistic that defies the claims of the eurosceptics. Statistically, EU nationals living in Britain are more productive, pay their taxes, and are least consumers of benefits. But that's not what most Brits believe.

This is yet another example of how the common belief that EU nationals represent more of a burden than a benefit is patently false. And ironically, that's the main reason Britain voted to leave the EU.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 4:19 pm
  #12068  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
That's not the case at all but whether or not Britain gets tariff free access to the EU is really up to the EU to decide.
The EU. case is simple, if you want the same benefits as the other 27 members the UK has to agree to concessions it is ruling out.
The decision to concede or not is the UK s not the EUs.
The EU does not have to do anything.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 4:20 pm
  #12069  
 
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
Erm, according to the article you linked to, the vast MINORITY are EU nationals, and an even smaller number of non-EU nationals.
To your point, from that article.
Attached Thumbnails Post EU Referendum-rough-sleepers.jpg  
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 4:59 pm
  #12070  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
To your point, from that article.
One rough sleeper is too many, but I'm very surprised that the number (~4100) is so low. A 16% increase means about 65 more souls than before.

This is not headline material, let alone anything to do with immigration.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 5:35 pm
  #12071  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Novocastrian View Post
One rough sleeper is too many, but I'm very surprised that the number (~4100) is so low. A 16% increase means about 65 more souls than before.

This is not headline material, let alone anything to do with immigration.
Yes, we don't want that... but that's not the point.

DG was implying that the rough sleepers were mostly EU nationals (I presume to again justify the fear of Europe and Europeans). They aren't. Period.

In fact, statistically (which many would automatically dismiss as "fear-mongering") virtually everything about Britain's relationship with the EU has historically been a net positive for Britain. Including immigration.

But that's not what people wanted to believe, and they voted that way.

It's been decided. What's the holdup?
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 5:38 pm
  #12072  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
The EU. case is simple, if you want the same benefits as the other 27 members the UK has to agree to concessions it is ruling out.
The decision to concede or not is the UK s not the EUs.
The EU does not have to do anything.
My quote: ‘While the statutes of the bank make it clear that the shareholders of the EIB are member states of the European Union, whether "there is an option to change that and allow a former member state to remain a member … is completely open to speculation. So I think we should not exclude any possibility", he said. (Werner Hoyer, EIB President)’

There is movement here as my last post pointed out. The decision to concede is both the UK’s and the EU’s. That is what is called an amicable arrangement. I really think anything is possible once all the rhetoric has died down, because at the end of the day everyone will realise it is people that matter most, not points scoring.

Re the immigration topic going on now, very interesting, but Merkel still insists that the free movement of people is irreversible. It is attitude like this that has to be overcome. How?
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 5:49 pm
  #12073  
 
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Novocastrian View Post
One rough sleeper is too many, but I'm very surprised that the number (~4100) is so low. A 16% increase means about 65 more souls than before.

This is not headline material, let alone anything to do with immigration.
I suspect it's a lot higher - that was only a few councils reporting. I'm connected to a UK charity that works with young people and I saw whole encampments of people sleeping rough in the New Forest alone and they weren't migrants. It's a national embarrassment tbh.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 5:54 pm
  #12074  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing View Post
One would hope, also, that the ridiculous income requirement for non-EU spouses of British citizens will be revised, because the only thing that I was opposed to regarding the membership of the EU was that I was essentially barred from returning to live because I wouldn't be able to earn enough to bring my wife and children with me.
Yeah as someone with a foreign spouse who cannot take British citizenship I have to say that one terrifies the hell out of me. It actually scares me to leave the country again because if my better half lost her UK ILR while we were overseas then I don't know how in the hell I would be able to bring her back.

EU rules and loopholes have been allowing Europeans to bypass the British restrictions for years. Hopefully after Brexit spousal sponsorship rules can be a bit more relaxed and sensible than they are now because the current system basically punishes UK citizens while making it a lot easier for holders of other EU passports.

Incidentally UK visas for some nationalities did used to just be a stamp. People of preferred nationalities could even apply for non-immigrant visas on arrival (e.g. Canada-style) but the Labour government overhauled the system massively in the mid-2000's. I think the UK was actually one of the first countries in the world to introduce a fully biometric immigration system.

Last edited by DigitalGhost; Jan 27th 2017 at 5:59 pm.
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Old Jan 27th 2017, 5:54 pm
  #12075  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
DG was implying that the rough sleepers were mostly EU nationals (I presume to again justify the fear of Europe and Europeans). They aren't. Period.
Where in the hell did I say that?
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