British Expats

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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

la mancha Jan 27th 2017 12:46 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12163028)
What deals? is £1B extraordinary? If so, then things are worse than I thought.

I've read that nearly $1Trillion in global trade with the EU flows through London in a normal week. That's a thousand billion, by the way.

And aside from the huge amount of trade it conducts withing the EU, Britain currently enjoys trade agreements with about 50 non-EU nations.

The day britain leaves the EU, all of that will be gone. There needs to be something to make up for it, or else there will be a significant economic downsizing. This isn't a secret. And even the new Brexit government certainly knows this by now. Britain needs something ... anything ... quickly. Just the kind of weakness Trump loves...

All of that will be gone? That must be the most ridiculous statement you have posted in a long time. I suppose you have the evidence to back that up? No ‘coulds’, please.

And I get accused of twaddle and crystal ball gazing…

DigitalGhost Jan 27th 2017 12:49 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Red Eric (Post 12163054)
:rofl::rofl::rofl:

Poor Dicky. Bet he can't wait for Poorly to return.

I actually didn't mean it as an insult against DD although I do think he could benefit from taking it down a notch.

I would just hope that people on here wouldn't assume that I would read another member's posts and then base my opinions on those posts alone. I have both agreed and disagreed with some of the things that DD has said in the past.

amideislas Jan 27th 2017 12:50 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12163049)
Excellent post. Could you also mention that the EU will drop down the rankings after Brexit when the UK’s economy is subtracted from the EU’s figures.

That's true. EU GDP will fall from nearly a $17T to just under $15T. The US will then again become the world's largest economy, and the EU will become second to the US. But the EU has a lot of room to grow, so it's anyone's guess where that could lead.

Britain, however, has very little room to grow. It's already crowded, and there's little evidence to suggest that a post-Brexit Britain will be able to sustain its current GDP. Most estimates suggest at least 4% decline. But it's hard to tell. Could be 20%, depending on what happens. It will be a precarious time of adjustment for Britain. Most economists don't factor in the risk of political instability as a result of the economic declines, even if relatively minor.

morpeth Jan 27th 2017 12:53 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost (Post 12162970)
Have you actually been to Istanbul? The food, style, architecture and culture is very Mediterranean overall just with a slight middle eastern twist. That's one of the reasons why I like that city so much.

Officially Turkey has no religion. It is a secular country however the majority of the population are Muslim and that is why there are more mosques than in most European cities and you can routinely hear the call to prayer in the streets. It's not uncommon to see the locals smoking or swigging a beer outside a cafe whilst the call to prayer is happening though.

I don't know Turkey very well at all, and most of my exposure to Turks has been in Western Europe. No doubt as you say due to proximity to Europe and being on Mediterranean there are some similarities- but I think the definition of what is a European encompasses much more than the factors noted. The idea that Turks are Europeans would never have occurred to me, nor for security reasons having such a country inside the EU with freedom of movement rules doesn't seem to be the best move for Europe's security.

I doubt the Poles , Croats, Serbs, Bulgarians would agree Turkey is European or want them in the EU, let alone the Greeks. Their history and religion, let alone language and political structure, cultural history whether in art or music, hardly in sync with Europe. Lebanon back in the 1950s shared much with the Mediterranean culture (Braudel's work describes the commonality of Mediterranean countries well) but that wouldn't have made Lebanon a European country. Would Lebanese Christians who were brought up attending French schools be more European in culture than Turks ? Perhaps yes.

Red Eric Jan 27th 2017 12:54 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12163063)
Britain, however, has very little room to grow. It's already crowded...

Nah, there's loads of space there still. Take Surrey, for example - that's supposed to be in the most overcrowded part of the country but most of it's used for galloping horses over, at best.

DigitalGhost Jan 27th 2017 12:55 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12163063)
That's true. EU GDP will fal from nearly a $17T to just under $15T. The US will then again become the world's largest economy, and the EU will become second to the US. But the EU has a lot of room to grow, so it's anyone's guess where that could lead.

Britain, however, has very little room to grow. It's already crowded, and there's little evidence to suggest that a post-Brexit Britain will be able to sustain its current GDP. Most estimates suggest at least 4% decline. But it's hard to tell. Could be 20%, depending on what happens. It will be a precarious time of adjustment for Britain. Most economists don't factor in the risk of political instability as a result of the economic declines, even if relatively minor.

Seriously, are you kidding me? I already provided you with evidence proving that the EU economy was smaller than the US one and incidentally recent estimates suggest that the British economy is worth closer to $3Tn than $2Tn so by your figures that would actually mean that an EU without Britain is worth just a couple of trillion more than China.

Secondly some of the largest economies in the world aren't huge in terms of land mass. Japan is only slightly bigger than Britain and has more inhospitable areas yet still manages to be the world's 3rd richest country. Geographical size has absolutely nothing to do with it and if that is posing problems to the UK economy then that is principally because British use of land, especially in the South East, is horrifically wasteful.

DigitalGhost Jan 27th 2017 12:59 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12163067)

I doubt the Poles , Croats, Serbs, Bulgarians would agree Turkey is European or want them in the EU, let alone the Greeks.

The EU has proven time and time over that it couldn't really give a toss what those poorer, smaller countries want. It is not a union of equals, not by a long shot. If a post-Brexit Germany and France want Turkish accession to fill part of the hole left by the UK then it will happen one way or another.

I would suggest visiting Istanbul if you ever get the chance. It's a wonderful and welcoming city and I've found that it can really open your eyes to the kind of country that Turkey actually is.

amideislas Jan 27th 2017 1:00 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12163055)
All of that will be gone? That must be the most ridiculous statement you have posted in a long time. I suppose you have the evidence to back that up? No ‘coulds’, please.

And I get accused of twaddle and crystal ball gazing…

No single market (as Ms. May has asserted) = no single market. The notion that she will somehow negotiate a comprehensive "free trade agreement" with the EU which gives Britain free access to the single market is a notion that is shared only with May's cabinet. Not one European politican believes that's even remotely possible. Because, well, it isn't.

It's like saying that we shall assume there will be no atlantic hurricanes or pacific cyclones between march and november 2017. Even as climate change indisputably proves the risk of hurricans and tropical cyclones is significantly higher than in the past century. Yes, we can hope for that. But the evidence isn't really on your side.

DigitalGhost Jan 27th 2017 1:03 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12163075)
No single market (as Ms. May has asserted) = no single market. The notion that she will somehow negotiate a comprehensive "free trade agreement" with the EU which gives Britain free access to the single market is a notion that is shared only with May's cabinet. Not one European politican believes that's even remotely possible. Because, well, it isn't.

It's like saying that we shall assume there will be no atlantic hurricanes or pacific cyclones between march and november 2017. Even as climate change indisputably proves the risk of hurricans and tropical cyclones is significantly higher than in the past century. Yes, we can hope for that. But the evidence isn't really on your side.

Rather than jumping to conclusions, why don't we just wait and see. By most estimates article 50 isn't a long way off and that's when the real fun will begin anyway.

Do I personally think that the EU is pig headed enough to slice off its nose to spite its face by severing all ties with the British completely? Yes I do but hopefully logic and common sense will prevail and that will not happen.

amideislas Jan 27th 2017 1:11 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost (Post 12163070)
Seriously, are you kidding me? I already provided you with evidence proving that the EU economy was smaller than the US one and incidentally recent estimates suggest that the British economy is worth closer to $3Tn than $2Tn so by your figures that would actually mean that an EU without Britain is worth just a couple of trillion more than China.

Secondly some of the largest economies in the world aren't huge in terms of land mass. Japan is only slightly bigger than Britain and has more inhospitable areas yet still manages to be the world's 3rd richest country. Geographical size has absolutely nothing to do with it and if that is posing problems to the UK economy then that is principally because British use of land, especially in the South East, is horrifically wasteful.


OK, yes, as of a year ago, the EU was indeed the world's largest economy, edging out the US by just under a trillion. It's worthy of pointing out that the EU has grown in the past few years from just under $16T to just under $17T. But the US has grown a bit faster. The two are rather neck-and-neck at the moment.

And again, Britain currently represents the front door to that economy (1st or second largest, however you wish to split that hair).. After Brexit, Britain will no longer represent that economic magnitude. It will be reduced to a mere fractional magnitude, a more realistic quantification of the actual market Britain alone represents.

Dick Dasterdly Jan 27th 2017 1:12 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost (Post 12163076)
Rather than jumping to conclusions, why don't we just wait and see. By most estimates article 50 isn't a long way off and that's when the real fun will begin anyway.

Do I personally think that the EU is pig headed enough to slice off its nose to spite its face by severing all ties with the British completely? Yes I do but hopefully logic and common sense will prevail and that will not happen.

:goodpost:

EU bosses 'finally realise their arrogance is ripping Europe apart' | UK | News | Daily Express

Oh so true,

They have got away with shoving their dictatorial powers down everyone's throats for far too long.

Now they are going to have to come to terms with reality and eat humble pie if they are not to disintegrate even sooner than many of us predicted.

la mancha Jan 27th 2017 1:14 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
I’m glad you are answering them, DG, because I can’t be bothered with this twaddle. I know that the UK will not lose access to the financial sector, single market or not, because that will be financial suicide for the EU. Ami, you once said the EU holds all the cards. It does not. It holds threats, that is all.

amideislas Jan 27th 2017 1:17 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost (Post 12163076)
Rather than jumping to conclusions, why don't we just wait and see. By most estimates article 50 isn't a long way off and that's when the real fun will begin anyway.

Do I personally think that the EU is pig headed enough to slice off its nose to spite its face by severing all ties with the British completely? Yes I do but hopefully logic and common sense will prevail and that will not happen.

Britain represents very little risk to the EU. It is only a modest trading partner, accounting for only 8% of EU exports (all incuded), while Britain's exports to the EU account for about 44% of all Britain's exports.

And Britain's economy is extremely service-heavy. It produces little, and is therefore heavily import-dependent. Most of which come from Europe. So it's highly unlikely EU members will suffer much drop in the small number of exports to Britain. In any case.

Britain represents little risk to the EU in terms of trade. The reverse, however, is quite the opposite.

DigitalGhost Jan 27th 2017 1:17 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12163079)
And again, Britain currently represents the front door to that economy (1st or second largest, however you wish to split that hair).. After Brexit, Britain will no longer represent that economic magnitude. It will be reduced to a mere fractional magnitude, a more realistic quantification of the actual market Britain alone represents.

Yes it did and that was why America has always wanted Britain in the EU. Britain provided a proxy-seat at the EU table for the likes of America and Japan and a offered pathway to Europe without being forced to endure all of the bullshit spewed out by Brussels. That and only that was the reason for Obama's threats towards the British public early last year and was why Obama started sucking up to Merkel in the later years of his presidency.

Call me selfish if you like but I don't really like having to see my homeland trashed and British wages kept down just because that situation meets with certain foreign interests.

DigitalGhost Jan 27th 2017 1:20 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12163083)
I’m glad you are answering them, DG, because I can’t be bothered with this twaddle.

Yeah, quite frankly I am starting to lose patience with it myself now.

If the EU wants to ignore one of the richest and most stable nations on Earth that sits right on its doorstep then that is the EU's prerogative. If the Germans and the Irish have any say though then I personally feel that is unlikely to happen.


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