British Expats

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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

DaveLovesDee Jan 21st 2017 10:46 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
The Supreme Court judgement on who gets to trigger Brexit is due to be announced this Tuesday, 24th January, at 9.30am.

Supreme Court news

Former Lancastrian Jan 21st 2017 10:46 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Annetje (Post 12157471)
Of course they will still sell them to the UK, amongst other countries they sell them to.
It will (probably) just be more expensive for the UK consumers having to add duties to them.

Who states there will be additional duties? Spain or the UK?

EMR Jan 21st 2017 10:50 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12157451)
He is busy elsewhere at the moment!
I still think Mrs May should find him an appropriate other job!

Boris Johnson in Kolkata: Boris Johnson regales students at Presidency University | Kolkata News - Times of India

The most important global event certainly this decade took place in Washington, what happens in India and the UK are of little if any importance compared to yesaterdays..
You need to broaden yourr horizons.
Maybe Boris should stick to playing cricket with schoolboys.

EMR Jan 21st 2017 10:54 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Fredbargate (Post 12157461)
So one example:-
Do you think that the Spanish will let their fruit and vegetables rot for years waiting until a paper is signed.
Or will they continue to ship them to the UK

Of course thry will continue to ship, however with a declining currency, ( sterlimg ) the additional costs of paperwork etc that will be added to the final price in our supermarkets will we still be buyimg as much..
Back to swedes and tatties in the winter.

Bipat Jan 21st 2017 10:56 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Annetje (Post 12157456)
Hey, I am sure the UK WILL have trade deals in the end. The problem is, surviving until these deals are negotiated. Considering they are not allowed to negotiate whilst being a EU member, it might mean they cannot start with new deals before 2019 or even beyond. And as has been said millions of time before, a trade deal is not ''done and dusted'' within a year ... it will take years.
And a deal with the EU ... depends, I think, very much on the divorce. There will be little deals to be made, but that as well will take years.
Also, frankly, I am not sure what the UK wants to trade ? They don't have too much to sell ?

I my view, first few years will be a survival battle for England and Wales. Maybe for the whole UK, but I think the other 2 will go their own way.

Unofficial talks have been going on since the result of the referendum.
Deals with other countries -one to one-- will not take the years others have been trying and failing to get free trade deals with the EU and its 28 members.

jimenato Jan 21st 2017 11:01 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12157453)
Are you saying that post Brexit the UK will not trade with any EU countries?

No:confused: Anyway it's the Breckers who use this argument - ask them.

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12157453)
However there are about 167 other countries not members of the EU including 24 other European countries.
How did UK manage before they joined the EEC?

Like (say) Gibraltar does now.

There is lots of cross border trade but it is a pain in the arse. If you take anything significant (either way) you have to declare it and pay duty on it. It takes time and costs money but it still happens.

Multiply that inconvenience, cost and delay by many thousands. But it will still happen.

EMR Jan 21st 2017 11:01 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12157482)
Unofficial talks have been going on since the result of the referendum.
Deals with other countries -one to one-- will not take the years they have been trying and failing to get free trade deals with the EU and its 28 members.

If you will not say why I will, its because India still wants to apply punative tarrifs to imported goods such as motor vehicles.
It is not the fault of the EU but Indias.
Trade agreements have to be of benefit to both parties, not just one side.
As Boris said this morning any trade deals cannot start until after we finally leave the EU.
Not days, weeks or months but years.

Bipat Jan 21st 2017 11:03 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12157479)
The most important global event certainly this decade took place in Washington, what happens in India and the UK are of little if any importance compared to yesaterdays..
You need to broaden yourr horizons.
Maybe Boris should stick to playing cricket with schoolboys.

However much Donald Trump gives rise to fears for world future--he very much supports both UK and India, so for selfish reasons it is important today.

amideislas Jan 21st 2017 11:04 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Annetje (Post 12157471)
Of course they will still sell them to the UK, amongst other countries they sell them to.
It will (probably) just be more expensive for the UK consumers having to add duties to them.


Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12157476)
Who states there will be additional duties? Spain or the UK?

Imposing or eliminating import tariffs on European goods entering the UK will obviously be up to the UK. And of course, imposing tariffs on European goods it depends on would be cutting off it's nose.

Britain can indeed buy fruit/veg (or other of the many essentials it buys from Europe) from the US or south America, but then of course, the logistics would add significant cost, and the quality less assured. Not to mention the costs of establishing all new supply chains.

And that assumes trade agreements with others can be achieved anytime soon, which, in the case of Trump's USA, would be extremely one sided in the US' favour, "we can sell you anything and everything we want, strictly on our terms. Sign here.".

No, it's doubtful that European exports to the UK would suffer much at all. No matter what.

And even if Britain never bought another EU product, the numbers aren't anywhere near existential. 8% is the absolute max export loss risk to the EU, as compared to 48% to the UK.

UK exports to the EU may be of much higher risk, even when EU goods are tariff-free. Europe simply doesn't need British products. If British products are more expensive, then so be it. There is no "dependency" on them. Europe locally produces just about anything Britain can offer, without the tariffs, customs and other barriers. So, yes, UK exports to the EU would likely suffer in any scenario.

Former Lancastrian Jan 21st 2017 11:04 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
For arguments sake lets just say Brexit officially happens on 1 January 2019.

Are you seriously suggesting that BMW, Audi etc etc will now have to wait years before they can ship another car to the UK because they haven't formally negotiated a separate trade deal with Germany?

Bipat Jan 21st 2017 11:08 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12157486)
If you will not say why I will, its because India still wants to apply punative tarrifs to imported goods such as motor vehicles.
It is not the fault of the EU but Indias.
Trade agreements have to be of benefit to both parties, not just one side.
As Boris said this morning any trade deals cannot start until after we finally leave the EU.
Not days, weeks or months but years.

Regarding the EU potential trade deal there were problems both sides and different problems with different EU members--You are incapable of looking at any thing beyond 'cars'.

The deals cannot start officially until we leave the EU but as I said talks have been going on since the referendum result, you may not call it negotiation but it equates to the same thing (unofficially!)

amideislas Jan 21st 2017 11:08 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12157490)
For arguments sake lets just say Brexit officially happens on 1 January 2019.

Are you seriously suggesting that BMW, Audi etc etc will now have to wait years before they can ship another car to the UK because they haven't formally negotiated a separate trade deal with Germany?

No, the flow of goods from Europe would be largely unimpeded. Britain needs those products. And imposing tariffs would be suicidal.

The reverse isn't necessarily the same, however. The EU could impose tariffs on British goods without much risk.

Besides, Britain can't negotiate a trade deal with Germany. It has to negotiate one with the EU.

EMR Jan 21st 2017 11:12 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12157490)
For arguments sake lets just say Brexit officially happens on 1 January 2019.

Are you seriously suggesting that BMW, Audi etc etc will now have to wait years before they can ship another car to the UK because they haven't formally negotiated a separate trade deal with Germany?

The agreement will be with the EU,not individual countries, you will know that it is May who is still hopefull that the UK can have a transitional agreement to protect our exports to the EU.
Failure to agree anything would mean that WTO rules would apply.
I am sure that someone on the forum will know what they are and hiw they will impact on UK exports to and imports from the EU.
From what I have read motor vehicles on of our biggest export sectors to the EU could have a 10% tarrrif applied to them by the EU and vice versa..

DaveLovesDee Jan 21st 2017 11:21 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12157476)
Who states there will be additional duties? Spain or the UK?

If the UK leaves the EU customs union, I expect it'd be the WTO tariff schedules that would be imposed.

Unless the UK and EU agree exemptions for certain product areas (transitional arrangements).


Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12157490)
For arguments sake lets just say Brexit officially happens on 1 January 2019.

Are you seriously suggesting that BMW, Audi etc etc will now have to wait years before they can ship another car to the UK because they haven't formally negotiated a separate trade deal with Germany?

No, but if we leave the customs union, UK car dealerships will face either having to include any customs duties in the selling price, or take a hit on those customs duties and make a smaller profit to maintain the price.

amideislas Jan 21st 2017 11:22 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12157473)
They wouldn't unless that country decided tried to punish the UK by not selling to them or making prices more expensive. I don't think either that the UK would stop selling stuff to any country unless its the tit for tat trade war which I don't see happening.

Europeans have nothing to gain from refusing to sell products to Britain (and there isn't even any indication that any such "punish" sentiment even exists).

The EU may decide *not* to abolish defacto WTO tariffs on British goods exported to the EU, and Britain might decide same, but it would be Britain that suffers, because Britain is dependent on those European imports, until it can establish new supply chains from elsewhere - and that will require trade agreements - and even then, the logistics will cost more.


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