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Post EU Referendum

Post EU Referendum

Old Dec 9th 2016, 2:01 pm
  #9361  
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
Sorry - how did you get that impression? If it was just from casual chat with a random sample of people, why on earth would you be inclined to believe that, knowing (as I presume you do) that successive UK governments have actually restructured the welfare system entirely several times over, sometimes specifically with the stated intention of making work pay and providing disincentives to those inclined to refuse even zero hours contracts? The last government made 18bn of cuts (note - cuts, not savings) to welfare and is poised to make another 12bn over the course of this parliament.

As regards fewer EU workers driving wages up, I posted a link a day or two back about a study by the NIESR, whose research concluded that reductions in the number of EU migrants would have minimal effect on raising wages in low paid work (to the tune of less than 1%, to be specific).
Actually I indicated I hadn't studied the matter, and was just collecting my thoughts on some initial observations and a few chats. I certainly haven't followed the situation that well these past years hence my question. I did visit the UK government website which has a calculator ( I am very impressed with their website compared to similar ones in US) which allows one to enter different wage levels to see effect of working again compared to retaining some benefits. There didn't appear to be at low wage levels much incentive to work compared to staying on benefits, but again just some initial observations and I welcome comment by those who are more familiar with situation.

Did you post that link on this thread ? I would be curious to see that study, as I know similar studies in US usually have very faulty premises and contradict my own experience as an employer in the US. ( I am not saying I am for or against EU migrants per se, just do not know how increasing the supply of low skilled labor can not have an effect on wages of lower skilled workers overall; doesn't mean the overall effect on economy is negative, just on wages it would seem it is).
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 2:17 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Exactly how much sarcasm has to drip off my posts before you get it?
Even if you had typed the word sarcasm in the largest font size at the start and end of your posts, they still wouldn't get it.
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 2:28 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by morpeth View Post
Actually I indicated I hadn't studied the matter, and was just collecting my thoughts on some initial observations and a few chats. I certainly haven't followed the situation that well these past years hence my question. I did visit the UK government website which has a calculator ( I am very impressed with their website compared to similar ones in US) which allows one to enter different wage levels to see effect of working again compared to retaining some benefits. There didn't appear to be at low wage levels much incentive to work compared to staying on benefits, but again just some initial observations and I welcome comment by those who are more familiar with situation.
As I understand it from what I've read, what the pre 2010 government(s) did in terms of "making work pay" was tinkered about with post 2010 in the Cameron government's desperation to make cuts and in a manner which was counter-productive insofar as that specific aim was concerned. The "taper" which existed was changed so that more benefit was lost at a lower rate of earnings. However, that doesn't mean the benefits system is too generous.

Originally Posted by morpeth View Post
Did you post that link on this thread ? I would be curious to see that study, as I know similar studies in US usually have very faulty premises and contradict my own experience as an employer in the US. ( I am not saying I am for or against EU migrants per se, just do not know how increasing the supply of low skilled labor can not have an effect on wages of lower skilled workers overall; doesn't mean the overall effect on economy is negative, just on wages it would seem it is).
Yes but it wasn't a link to the research itself - just to a newspaper report about its publication and summary of some of the findings. I don't know whether the full report's available to the general public but you can read about it in the link here :
Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
New research finds cutting EU immigration drastically will not only harm economy but also yield only an extremely small increase in wages for the low paid

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...y-niesr-report
Or you can get it in Mail-speak here, where exactly the same findings are presented in vastly different language and context Niesr finds Brexit could slash 150,000 EU citizens from net immigration to Britain | This is Money

I'm sure we can all think about what a "wage boost" of "as much as 0.5% by 2030" might mean to a very poorly waged person for long enough to decide whether that's actually a terrifically significant improvement or not, though, can't we?
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 3:07 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by morpeth View Post
If wages are too low, and undoubtedly part of reason some choose to live off benefits, then how would increasing the supply of lower skilled workers not mean there isnt an "over-supply" in terms of wages being kept low ?

I agree it may be smart to have the top-up for benefits, but is it enough ? I went to the UK government website, seems very little additional of benefit in working many low wage jobs than just staying on benefits and making some cash on the side- it appears that maybe there should be more top-up benefits to create more incentive to work.

How is unemployment calculated in UK ? For example in USA the official unemployment rate very misleading as it can exclude people not receiving unemployment benefits ( which according to which state can run out quickly). What is unemployment rate amongst UK citizens vs all workers in UK ?
You do not run out of unemployment benefits in the UK we are not thst kind of society.
There those who are classified as unable to work who no doubt do not figure in the statistics.
But the number emplyoyec, the jobs created is not open to any significant question.
Obtainjng benefits in the UK is gettjng harder and harder so as to encourage more into employment..
However I do believe as will most that the real level of unemplyment is higher than the official figure but this to woild have fallen at the same rate as the official figures.
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 3:10 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing View Post
Even if you had typed the word sarcasm in the largest font size at the start and end of your posts, they still wouldn't get it.
I'm beginning to wonder if some of them are British at all. How can you be British and not get sarcasm?
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 3:16 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

The poor effectively pay 80% tax on their earning. Here is the blurb that supports that.

Only 400,000 people currently get Universal Credit – compared with well over four million on tax credits and more than two million on means-tested Jobseeker’s Allowance and Employment Support Allowance. But it was those getting Universal Credit who were singled out by Chancellor Philip Hammond for a small improvement in the amount of benefit they will get from April 2017.

It is called the taper. At the moment for every extra £1 they earn they lose 65p of their Universal Credit. So earn an extra pound and your net income rises by just 35p. From April that taper rate is being reduced to 63%. So earn £1 and keep 37p.

That’s the theory. But it is usually much worse than that. Many of those on tax credits earn enough to pay National Insurance – which begins at £155 a week – and income tax – which begins at £212 a week. Even those working full time on minimum wage will pay both those taxes. Universal Credit is worked out on net income so the overall effect of the 65% taper after tax and National Insurance is a marginal tax rate of 76%. Earn a pound and keep just 24p. But that is not the end of it. Most will claim help with their council tax too and that is also tapered away as income rises. That further reduction means that at the moment they keep just 19p of every £1 earned. When the Universal Credit taper falls to 63% next April they will keep just 20p of every £1 earned. A marginal tax rate of 81.0% reduced to a marginal tax rate of 79.9%.

That gain of 1p per pound earned is what Philip Hammond said “will increase the incentive to work and encourage progression in work.”

The Green Book, which sets out the details of the policy changes in the Autumn Statement, put it this way.

“To help people progress in work, the government will reduce the taper rate that applies in
Universal Credit from 65% to 63% so working families will keep more of every pound they earn”.

True. But it failed to mention the actual overall effect for most is to keep just 1p more of every pound they earn.

The Chancellor also said the change would “help 3 million households across our country.” Which is rather more than the 400,000 currently on Universal Credit. In fact he was talking about the numbers affected by the end of this Parliament when most of those currently on tax credits and other means-tested benefits will have been moved over to Universal Credit. That is why the annual cost of the change is just £35m in 2017/18 but rises to £700m in 2021/22.

The statement also omitted another key fact. In April this year the level of earnings at which the taper began was cut for most of those on Universal Credit. For some it disappeared altogether. A single parent with one child began to lose benefit when they earned £397 a month compared with £734 previously. The Gingerbread charity calculated that single parents on Universal Credit would gain £200 a year from the change announced this week. But they had already lost £800 (in some cases up to £2000) from the work allowance cut.
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 3:43 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by mrken30 View Post
Originally Posted by mrken30 View Post
It was no checkpoint charlie
CHECKPOINT FRANCO No one crossed + Frontier closing 1969
Attached Thumbnails Post EU Referendum-checkpoint-franco.jpg   Post EU Referendum-frontier-closing-1969.jpg  
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 3:53 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
I'm beginning to wonder if some of them are British at all. How can you be British and not get sarcasm?
Some people struggle to understand my sarcasm.
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 3:56 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
I'm beginning to wonder if some of them are British at all. How can you be British and not get sarcasm?
Something is up with it, for sure.

Originally Posted by mrken30 View Post
Some people struggle to understand my sarcasm.
You straddle the line between sarcasm and sociopathy though, so there's that
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 3:59 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing View Post
Something is up with it, for sure.



You straddle the line between sarcasm and sociopathy though, so there's that
it's a very wide line
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 4:00 pm
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Originally Posted by mrken30 View Post
it's a very wide line
Said the bishop?
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 4:30 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Sorry if this has already been posted but this EU negotiators will offer Brits an individual opt-in to remain EU citizens, chief negotiator confirms | The Independent could be a game changer.
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 4:42 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Novocastrian View Post
What does that even mean, and what is the price you pay for "opting-in"?

And if there is any tangible benefit to opting-in, isn't it going to encourage other countries to vote to leave if everyone can opt back in again on a personal level?
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 4:46 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
What does that even mean, and what is the price you pay for "opting-in"?

And if there is any tangible benefit to opting-in, isn't it going to encourage other countries to vote to leave if everyone can opt back in again on a personal level?
It will give people the ability to live, study and work abroad with less strings attached.
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Old Dec 9th 2016, 5:14 pm
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Default re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by mrken30 View Post
It will give people the ability to live, study and work abroad with less strings attached.
I'm fairly sure people did that before the EU

Hang on I was one of them
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