British Expats

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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

Red Eric Oct 12th 2016 8:38 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12074361)
Will trade with Europe dissolve? Of course not. But the UK is highly unlikely to negotiate any "trade deal" on the terms they get now, and outside the customs union, UK exporters will incur all kinds of additional costs and hurdles getting their products to European consumers.

Some further information here on that membership of the customs union question. UK won't be able to do its own free trade deals if it remains in the customs bloc but leaving will have a detrimental effect on the economy, according to an expert. As we all know, experts are to be despised because it's a well known fact that they're frequently wrong - however, this one's advising the government (despite the fact that he has a suspiciously foreign-sounding name)

Ruparel, who will be heavily involved in the process, made clear that he believed Britain would have to leave the bloc, arguing “this ship sailed some time ago”.

“The only real question then is why this is even a ‘live debate’ in Whitehall?” he wrote. “It is concerning that, at this stage, the UK government seems to still be debating the most basic tenets of Brexit when the time is upon us to be drafting a detailed approach.”

...

“What we found is that, in the long run (up to 2030), there will be a permanent cost to leaving the customs union,” the analysis said. “This cost is around 1% to 1.2% GDP.”


The additional costs were linked to the administrative burdens that would result from something known as “rules of origin”, under which the UK would have to prove that goods being exported into Europe were produced locally.

“But this cost is clearly not prohibitively high,” he said, adding that Norway and Switzerland were outside the bloc but had significant levels of trade with the EU. Ruparel said the alternatives were “less palatable”.

The Turkish model of being inside the customs union but outside the single market would allow immigration restrictions but “would mean the UK could not negotiate its own free trade deals and would have to accept whatever the EU agrees to with other parties,” he said.

Adopting a different Norway-like model in which Britain was in the customs union but also had a free trade deal would be hardly different to remaining in the EU. “The former would be economically disruptive and the latter would be politically explosive,” he wrote.

The intervention could alarm senior figures inside the Treasury, with ministers telling the Guardian that the reality of leaving the bloc will be significant costs for business that had to be addressed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-union-uk-25bn

amideislas Oct 12th 2016 8:39 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 
There's a misguided view amongst brexiters that the EU is simply being obtuse and inflexible when it says unfettered single market access comes with rules and free movement. But it's not a matter of the EU trying to "punish" Britain at all. It's simply the way it's built.

Let's look at what Britain wants:
  • Unfettered single market access (as it has now)
  • End to freedom of movement
  • No contributory payments
  • No obligation to live within EU rules, nor be subject to EU courts.

OK fine, but effectively, that means the UK is demanding to have all of the benefits, without any burdens, nor any legal obligation to freely trade within that market on any level playing field. The UK can do whatever it wants, and without any contribution, but everybody else has to play by the rules.

Now, I think one could forgive the EU for having a problem with that.

mfesharne Oct 12th 2016 8:59 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12074410)
There's a misguided view amongst brexiters that the EU is simply being obtuse and inflexible when it says unfettered single market access comes with rules and free movement. But it's not a matter of the EU trying to "punish" Britain at all. It's simply the way it's built.

Let's look at what Britain wants:

  • Unfettered single market access (as it has now)
  • End to freedom of movement
  • No contributory payments
  • No obligation to live within EU rules, nor be subject to EU courts.


OK fine, but effectively, that means the UK is demanding to have all of the benefits, without any burdens, nor any legal obligation to freely trade within that market on any level playing field. The UK can do whatever it wants, and without any contribution, but everybody else has to play by the rules.

Now, I think one could forgive the EU for having a problem with that.

What makes you think that's "what Britain wants"?

The the best of my knowledge there has been no official announcement from Government about "what Britain wants" or is "demanding" & the referendum question was simply leave or remain & nothing else.

Or is your version simply something you dreamt up in 'Amiland'?

jimenato Oct 12th 2016 9:14 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by mfesharne (Post 12074423)
What makes you think that's "what Britain wants"?

The the best of my knowledge there has been no official announcement from Government about "what Britain wants" or is "demanding" & the referendum question was simply leave or remain & nothing else.

Or is your version simply something you dreamt up in 'Amiland'?

Have to say that mfesharne is right here. No-one has a clue what anyone wants. I suspect that mfesharne himself and all the others - paulry, Dick, la mancha etc, don't know what they want either.

Mrs. May also probably doesn't know what she wants because she hasn't yet been told what she wants by Fox, Davis and Johnson because they also don't know what they want.

At some point in the future we will all be told what we are getting which may or may not be what any of us wants (it certainly won't be what remainers want) but we will have to accept it because we're going to get no say in the matter.

It's going to be interesting to see what leavers reactions are going to be at the reveal. I expect they'll just say they got what they wanted because they have to really. They can hardly say it's not what they wanted when it's exactly what they voted for. If they dissent and say it's not what they wanted we'll all just blame them for voting for it so they won't do that - they'll just accept whatever they are told.

amideislas Oct 12th 2016 9:25 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 
C'mon, that's been the basis that the new government has been operating on since it took power. The "great repeal bill" is a testament to that.

And May has repeatedly insisted that freedom of movement will end.

Yet Boris claims it's "absolute baloney" that Britain will lose the single market over it.

Meanwhile, as this widely publicised set of expectations was being consumed across the channel, virtually all EU member states have expressed that there's no chance that will happen. Naturally, this is interpreted as "punishing" the UK.

But the fact remains, that this was the UK's choice, not the EU's, and the onus is on the UK to live with it.

mfesharne Oct 12th 2016 9:29 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by jimenato (Post 12074433)
Have to say that mfesharne is right here. No-one has a clue what anyone wants. I suspect that mfesharne himself and all the others - paulry, Dick, la mancha etc, don't know what they want either.

Mrs. May also probably doesn't know what she wants because she hasn't yet been told what she wants by Fox, Davis and Johnson because they also don't know what they want.

At some point in the future we will all be told what we are getting which may or may not be what any of us wants (it certainly won't be what remainers want) but we will have to accept it because we're going to get no say in the matter.

It's going to be interesting to see what leavers reactions are going to be at the reveal. I expect they'll just say they got what they wanted because they have to really. They can hardly say it's not what they wanted when it's exactly what they voted for. If they dissent and say it's not what they wanted we'll all just blame them for voting for it so they won't do that - they'll just accept whatever they are told.

I can only speak for myself but would suspect many other leavers want pretty much the same as I do which is exactly what I voted for...... out of the EU.

And I don't give a flying **** if we lose the single market, some trade agreements or if some banks, companies or anyone else decides to take their business elsewhere as a result or if their leaving costs the newly independent UK loss of money or reduction in GDP etc.

As I see it, those losses are a price worth paying.

Why I voted that way is a different question but I've explained that several times before so not much point in going over it yet again.

GeniB Oct 12th 2016 9:55 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12073676)
I cannot believe people can be so stupid. No wonder EU bureaucrats have an easy time. You can talk this lot into anything.

Where exactly do you live again.. La Mancha? and 'what' exactly is your European experience ? You have sooooooooooo much to say on the subject. Like one of those 'Experts' the leavers refused to listen to in fact.. Are you one?

I totally resent you calling me 'stupid' How impertinent of you. I and my OH have been in business in the UK and the EU for over 30 yrs.. Do tell where your expertise comes from? we are all agog

GeniB Oct 12th 2016 9:59 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Oct 12 th... May pledges Parliamentary debate before signing Article 50... Financial Times

(cannot post thresd from FT.. closed link)

Here we go...!!

GeniB Oct 12th 2016 10:05 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Oct 11th.. The markets have taught Theresa May a hard lesson on Sovereignty

Financial Times... again can't print.. but if anyone wants proof and I have the time will look for it)

Proof of which was the tremendous bounce back of the pound the minute she announced that they would discuss Brexit in Parliament.. as should have been the case in the first place

mikelincs Oct 12th 2016 10:43 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by mfesharne (Post 12074444)
I can only speak for myself but would suspect many other leavers want pretty much the same as I do which is exactly what I voted for...... out of the EU.

And I don't give a flying **** if we lose the single market, some trade agreements or if some banks, companies or anyone else decides to take their business elsewhere as a result or if their leaving costs the newly independent UK loss of money or reduction in GDP etc.

As I see it, those losses are a price worth paying.

Why I voted that way is a different question but I've explained that several times before so not much point in going over it yet again.

and what part of the UK do you live in, and will you be affected by any increases in prices, etc that occur because you, from the safety of your EU abode, voted to leave the EU, if that is true, then YOU should also leave the EU and return to experience, first hand, just what you voting has meant for those who actually live here and are affected by what will happen.

mfesharne Oct 12th 2016 10:48 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12074439)
C'mon, that's been the basis that the new government has been operating on since it took power. The "great repeal bill" is a testament to that.

And May has repeatedly insisted that freedom of movement will end.

Yet Boris claims it's "absolute baloney" that Britain will lose the single market over it.

Meanwhile, as this widely publicised set of expectations was being consumed across the channel, virtually all EU member states have expressed that there's no chance that will happen. Naturally, this is interpreted as "punishing" the UK.

But the fact remains, that this was the UK's choice, not the EU's, and the onus is on the UK to live with it.

So in other words it is something you dreamt up in Amiland & has no basis whatsoever in fact?

Which means you're simply talking nonsense.

Now there's a surprise! :lol:

mfesharne Oct 12th 2016 10:52 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by mikelincs (Post 12074488)
and what part of the UK do you live in, and will you be affected by any increases in prices, etc that occur because you, from the safety of your EU abode, voted to leave the EU, if that is true, then YOU should also leave the EU and return to experience, first hand, just what you voting has meant for those who actually live here and are affected by what will happen.

As I understand it, there's nothing in the rules that said only those living in the UK were entitled to vote or that those living outside the UK must return before Brexit is complete......... but if I'm wrong, please do direct me to the link that proves it?

DaveLovesDee Oct 12th 2016 10:57 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by mfesharne (Post 12074444)
I can only speak for myself but would suspect many other leavers want pretty much the same as I do which is exactly what I voted for...... out of the EU.

And I don't give a flying **** if we lose the single market, some trade agreements or if some banks, companies or anyone else decides to take their business elsewhere as a result or if their leaving costs the newly independent UK loss of money or reduction in GDP etc.

As I see it, those losses are a price worth paying.

Why I voted that way is a different question but I've explained that several times before so not much point in going over it yet again.

And that's the problem. You want out of the EU but you have no clue what version of out you want, or is best to take the UK forward.


Originally Posted by GeniB (Post 12074464)
Oct 12th... May pledges Parliamentary debate before signing Article 50... Financial Times

Guardian


Originally Posted by GeniB (Post 12074470)
Oct 11th.. The markets have taught Theresa May a hard lesson on Sovereignty

Financial Times... again can't print.. but if anyone wants proof and I have the time will look for it)

Proof of which was the tremendous bounce back of the pound the minute she announced that they would discuss Brexit in Parliament.. as should have been the case in the first place

FT

Scamp Oct 12th 2016 11:15 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by paulry (Post 12074403)
Er we're talking about pulling out of the EU that very expensive project that we have been members of for only about 40 years, Scump - not removing the pillars that keep your sky from falling in! :rofl:

Oh, so we are talking about going back in time? To the glory days when houses were £8.50 and everything was made in Britain? Sounds really progressive. I can't wait to change the face of the UK and partially / fully ruin some of the industries that we've built up over such huge periods of time.

Note - Lloyds of London, you know, the major insurer, they've said they'll seriously consider moving people overseas from the UK because of Brexit.
They're 328 years old. That's centuries. They're the kind of business that are part of Britain's history. They're the kind of business morons like you would wave a flag for. They're the kind of business that Brexit could hurt.

Take that to one side. The point I was making was about the negotiations; going in hard might work really well and leave us in a great position to try and retain a lot of these financial services (and others) type companies / industries. We might end up in a good situation out the back end where both leave and remain voters will be pleased with the concessions and what's been retained.

BTW - 'Scump'. Very funny. Did you think that one up by yourself or ask your carer for help?

mfesharne Oct 12th 2016 11:15 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12074504)
And that's the problem. You want out of the EU but you have no clue what version of out you want, or is best to take the UK forward.

Not a problem at all.

I (and probably many others) voted out of the EU....... not out of the EU under certain conditions.

Or if you prefer, out of the EU whatever the cost.

Which is what the Government now need to achieve because that's what the mandate says.


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