British Expats

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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

Red Eric Oct 2nd 2016 6:32 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Vexcore (Post 12066807)
Cant stand Labour, look at the current state of it now.... a massive mess. they/well some of them want to block 'brexit'

Still.... they have let the country down since the Blair Years

One (Owen Smith) of the two leadership candidates vowed that, should he be elected leader, he would try to stop May triggering Article 50 unless she promised a 2nd referendum or an election to approve the final deal.

He was roundly defeated, with Jeremy Corbyn winning a larger majority than the huge one he already held. Corbyn had made it clear that should he win, Labour would work with the result of the referendum.

So, Labour (that is the party membership as a whole) endorsed the candidate who clearly said the referendum result will be respected.

However, I think the Westminster MPs on all sides might well have an opportunity to have a say in whether they think the government is or is not prepared enough to start the exit negotiations prior to the formal notification - and it's worth noting that there are probably as many Conservatives as Labour MPs with concerns about that and about the form of Brexit that will be aimed for.

Bipat Oct 2nd 2016 6:34 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Red Eric (Post 12066786)
So the rules that you said "will be the same", might, in the end, be similar but not necessarily the same (unless freedom of movement is part of the New Deal)? Do I detect a little softening up already?

And when it comes down to it, some of the rules surrounding the movement of peoples within the EU means that they should be treated the same in their new country of residence as the citizens of that country. Changing those rules would allow the UK to treat immigrants differently (or unequally). Does that not get you slightly perturbed in the equality department?

I am not softening! I hope the rules will be the same for all immigrants. What I meant was that any move towards equality is better than none.

Red Eric Oct 2nd 2016 6:35 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
You didn't answer the question about immigrants possibly not having equality with UK citizens.

amideislas Oct 2nd 2016 6:35 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Boris Johnson: BBC is 'infuriatingly anti-Brexit' but remains 'single greatest ambassador of our culture' - The Telegraph

Funny though, not a peep about the extreme anti-EU, mega-brexit, ultra sensationalist, most read and politically powerful media in Britain; the tabloids.

la mancha Oct 2nd 2016 6:44 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12066788)
I've always said there's no upside for anyone. And that's true. But the deed has been done, so it's not about if, but how to make the best of what's left.

The UK is far more dependent on trade with the EU than the reverse (48% vs. 7.5%). And frankly, the EU has one thing to gain in that UK business will have plenty of motivation to move to the continent. They've been openly saying so. It's not a secret. And Europe is actively encouraging it.

And although UK exports to the EU (largest UK trading partner at 48% of exports) could very well be subject to tariffs, there's little reason to believe exports to the UK (7.5% of European exports) would have tariffs or otherwise be penalised. The UK is all but dependent on them.

The UK is not in a good negotiating position at all. I reckon that's in no small part, the rationale behind leaving it all and starting from scratch in a so-called "hard Brexit". Easier, and not worth farting around trying to get the impossible.

But it does mean a significant economic downsizing.

I know the UK is more dependent on goods trade with the EU blah, blah, blah. I also know that a recession-hit UK will buy less goods from the EU so increasing the possibility of a recession in the EU with rising unemployment blah,blah, blah. We all know this. It is not worth either of us repeating it again.

I also know that the EU and Eurozone in particular, are reliant on the London capital markets for capital and credit for businesses throughout the EU and Eurozone. The UK is in a very good negotiating position. Without capital and credit Eurozone businesses will remain moribund.

If UK businesses move to the EU and we are pushed out of the single market then they, too, will be excluded from capital and credit for their companies. They will have to go to European institutions that have less access and expertise with the capital markets.

Your simplistic comment that the EU could very well subject UK goods to tariffs and the UK will not reciprocate just about sums up your aptitude for this discussion.

Your very comment that there is no upside for anyone demonstrates your pessimistic approach. I say we can all come to a satisfactory agreement, both parties in a position of strength to help each other return to pre-crisis levels and go forward from there.

The main issue is not goods but finance. Without the necessary capital or credit businesses come to a stop and unemployment rises.

Now we have the world’s financial sector asking their governments to lobby the EU to come to an agreement to safeguard London’s status as an international financial hub. They say, ‘The City of London is a global financial center, not just Europe’s.’ What does that tell you?

Vexcore Oct 2nd 2016 6:44 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Red Eric (Post 12066820)
One (Owen Smith) of the two leadership candidates vowed that, should he be elected leader, he would try to stop May triggering Article 50 unless she promised a 2nd referendum or an election to approve the final deal.

He was roundly defeated, with Jeremy Corbyn winning a larger majority than the huge one he already held. Corbyn had made it clear that should he win, Labour would work with the result of the referendum.

So, Labour (that is the party membership as a whole) endorsed the candidate who clearly said the referendum result will be respected.

However, I think the Westminster MPs on all sides might well have an opportunity to have a say in whether they think the government is or is not prepared enough to start the exit negotiations prior to the formal notification - and it's worth noting that there are probably as many Conservatives as Labour MPs with concerns about that and about the form of Brexit that will be aimed for.

I understand that, one of the reasons why Labour won't get into power not till 2025 at least... could you image the uproar if the result was overlooked/turned ?


Dread to think



Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12066824)
Boris Johnson: BBC is 'infuriatingly anti-Brexit' but remains 'single greatest ambassador of our culture' - The Telegraph

Funny though, not a peep about the extreme anti-EU, mega-brexit, ultra sensationalist, most read and politically powerful media in Britain; the tabloids.


BBC = biased



Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12066818)
I do not think it will be too long before you dig up another link from that sewer of sites you inhabit.

Images hurt huh?

Red Eric Oct 2nd 2016 6:48 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Vexcore (Post 12066830)

Originally Posted by Red Eric (Post 12066820)
One (Owen Smith) of the two leadership candidates vowed that, should he be elected leader, he would try to stop May triggering Article 50 unless she promised a 2nd referendum or an election to approve the final deal.

He was roundly defeated, with Jeremy Corbyn winning a larger majority than the huge one he already held. Corbyn had made it clear that should he win, Labour would work with the result of the referendum.

So, Labour (that is the party membership as a whole) endorsed the candidate who clearly said the referendum result will be respected.

However, I think the Westminster MPs on all sides might well have an opportunity to have a say in whether they think the government is or is not prepared enough to start the exit negotiations prior to the formal notification - and it's worth noting that there are probably as many Conservatives as Labour MPs with concerns about that and about the form of Brexit that will be aimed for.

I understand that, one of the reasons why Labour won't get into power not till 2025 at least... could you image the uproar if the result was overlooked/turned ?


Dread to think

Have you considered attending remedial reading classes?

amideislas Oct 2nd 2016 6:51 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12066828)
I know the UK is more dependent on goods trade with the EU blah, blah, blah. I also know that a recession-hit UK will buy less goods from the EU so increasing the possibility of a recession in the EU with rising unemployment blah,blah, blah. We all know this. It is not worth either of us repeating it again.

I also know that the EU and Eurozone in particular, are reliant on the London capital markets for capital and credit for businesses throughout the EU and Eurozone. The UK is in a very good negotiating position. Without capital and credit Eurozone businesses will remain moribund.

If UK businesses move to the EU and we are pushed out of the single market then they, too, will be excluded from capital and credit for their companies. They will have to go to European institutions that have less access and expertise with the capital markets.

Your simplistic comment that the EU could very well subject UK goods to tariffs and the UK will not reciprocate just about sums up your aptitude for this discussion.

Your very comment that there is no upside for anyone demonstrates your pessimistic approach. I say we can all come to a satisfactory agreement, both parties in a position of strength to help each other return to pre-crisis levels and go forward from there.

The main issue is not goods but finance. Without the necessary capital or credit businesses come to a stop and unemployment rises.

Now we have the world’s financial sector asking their governments to lobby the EU to come to an agreement to safeguard London’s status as an international financial hub. They say, ‘The City of London is a global financial center, not just Europe’s.’ What does that tell you?

There isn't any upside for anyone. Even you have so far been unable to offer any tangible answer to that question.

By the way, why on earth would the UK impose damaging tariffs on goods it is dependent on? The tanking of the pound (there will be more) is already going to lead to inflation. Adding more burden won't help.

Financial services have already indicated, warned, and are actively obtaining office space and operating licences on the continent.

If you established a business in the UK to enable access to the single market (and now are dependent on it) and that access vanished, what would be your strategy? Note: there have been a parade of warnings from major global enterprises in the UK about this.

Automakers, for example, would clearly benefit from moving to the continent. They'd have the benefit of the single market, and still have the UK market as a bonus.

I doubt some loyalty to the Union Jack will be a serious consideration.

Red Eric Oct 2nd 2016 6:52 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12066828)
The main issue is not goods but finance. Without the necessary capital or credit businesses come to a stop and unemployment rises.

I would say the main issue is neither goods nor finance but politics ;)

DaveLovesDee Oct 2nd 2016 6:57 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by mfesharne (Post 12066746)
No-one knows the future so everyone that voted on both sides did so on opinion only.

Personally, I voted for what I believe in. My opinions only partly formed by beliefs, as did my experiences.


Sure, no-one knows what'll happen post Brexit but equally, no-one could predict what would happen had the UK remained within the EU.
No-one knew what would have happened had we remained a member of the EU, but we were bombarded with things such as '70 million Turks will be flooding the EU (despite every EU member state being able to veto it Turkey joining), or that the UK will have to join the Euro (despite the UK having a permanent opt-out). Note that Boris has now said he will help Turkey join the same EU we've voted to leave.

Had we remained, one could reasonably conclude (based on previous performance) that the UK would manage to get opt-outs from EU rules it didn't like, despite having a say in the drafting of said rules. The UK would also have held the Presidency of the European Council from July 2018, where they could have influenced the direction of the EU.

As you say, no-one knows the future, but lots of jobs rely on making predictions/educated guesses, such as;

Weather forecasters
Astrologers
Mechanical Engineers predicting the failure rate of components
Stock market traders
Economists
Politicians
Airlines and airports
and even restaurants predicting how many of which menu items will be most popular that day.

EMR Oct 2nd 2016 6:57 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Red Eric (Post 12066836)
I would say the main issue is neither goods nor finance but politics ;)

:goodpost:

EMR Oct 2nd 2016 7:01 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12066822)
I am not softening! I hope the rules will be the same for all immigrants. What I meant was that any move towards equality is better than none.

I somehow doubt that your view of equality is the same of that in UKIP or on the right of the Tory party or those who voted to leave because of immigration, all immigration.
Be carefull for what you wish for.

mfesharne Oct 2nd 2016 8:07 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12066839)
Personally, I voted for what I believe in. My opinions only partly formed by beliefs, as did my experiences.

You've proved my point - Which is that as none of us can see into the future, we all had to decide on what we believed would happen in the future (that no-one can know with any certainty)

Therefore, we decide on opinion which is decided by beliefs & experiences etc.

As an aside, it's worth noting that this referendum was basically decided on the principle on proportional representation (ie) one man one vote & every vote counts as much as every other vote.

Had we had PR at the last election things would have been very different & UKIP would have been the kingmakers for Cons/Lab which at one end of the scale proves how pisspoor the FPTP system is & at the other proves how PR is a far more democratic system.

And incidentally, I voted for PR & the majority voted otherwise........ but I accepted the decision of the majority...... which is what the remoaniacs now need to do. ;)

EMR Oct 2nd 2016 8:14 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by mfesharne (Post 12066876)
You've proved my point - Which is that as none of us can see into the future, we all had to decide on what we believed would happen in the future (that no-one can know with any certainty)

Therefore, we decide on opinion which is decided by beliefs & experiences etc.

As an aside, it's worth noting that this referendum was basically decided on the principle on proportional representation (ie) one man one vote & every vote counts as much as every other vote.

Had we had PR at the last election things would have been very different & UKIP would have been the kingmakers for Cons/Lab which at one end of the scale proves how pisspoor the FPTP system is & at the other proves how PR is a far more democratic system.

And incidentally, I voted for PR & the majority voted otherwise........ but I accepted the decision of the majority...... which is what the remoaniacs now need to do. ;)

When is it going to get into your dense cranium that no remainer on here is still debating the referendum ( unlike some of our ultras who constantly post anti EU , anti immigrant links ) .
The debate now is about what will be best for the UK in what ever form brexit takes.
" capiche ".
Its about the FUTURE.

DaveLovesDee Oct 2nd 2016 8:17 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by mfesharne (Post 12066876)
You've proved my point - Which is that as none of us can see into the future, we all had to decide on what we believed would happen in the future (that no-one can know with any certainty)

Therefore, we decide on opinion which is decided by beliefs & experiences etc.

As an aside, it's worth noting that this referendum was basically decided on the principle on proportional representation (ie) one man one vote & every vote counts as much as every other vote.

Had we had PR at the last election things would have been very different & UKIP would have been the kingmakers for Cons/Lab which at one end of the scale proves how pisspoor the FPTP system is & at the other proves how PR is a far more democratic system.

And incidentally, I voted for PR & the majority voted otherwise........ but I accepted the decision of the majority...... which is what the remoaniacs now need to do. ;)

When was the vote for or against PR? I remember a referendum on the Alternative Vote, which wasn't going to be what Proportional Representation is.

AS for TM's speech to conference and TV interview today, I think this is a fair opinion from a political commentator May speech makes it clear we're leaving the single market


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