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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

jimenato Sep 18th 2016 10:22 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12055378)
Right, then. I suppose my rather in-depth study of this entire event is a testament to my "shallow understanding"? You guys can't seem to get past the vote count or brexit = brexit. You should watch that video I posted earlier. It's all about details. I've watched it. Have you?

You can't expect a Brexiteer to watch that video - far too scary.

Bipat Sep 18th 2016 11:01 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12055378)
Right, then. I suppose my rather in-depth study of this entire event is a testament to my "shallow understanding"? You guys can't seem to get past the vote count or brexit = brexit. You should watch that video I posted earlier. It's all about details. I've watched it. Have you?

I watched the video-- did you read the link I put this morning? ---Cardiff Business School--regarding trade post Brexit.

Do the people who voted to remain want the UK to fail in future trade deals? If yes, why?

Red Eric Sep 18th 2016 11:11 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by paulry (Post 12055360)
You and Ami are a hoot. You're the only ones repeatedly saying "Brexit is Brexit" :rofl:

I think, with respect, that you're all getting far too anal about this expression. It really doesn't matter if Teresa May did say "Brexit is Brexit" or "Brexit means Brexit". There's not a scrap of difference between the 2 even if you could actually define Brexit, which you can't because it's dependent on the forthcoming negotiations.

EMR Sep 18th 2016 11:20 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12055406)
I watched the video-- did you read the link I put this morning? ---Cardiff Business School--regarding trade post Brexit.

Do the people who voted to remain want the UK to fail in future trade deals? If yes, why?

The facts are that the UK does not have the manufacturing caoacity to benefit from large scale trade deals.
We are a nation of importers.
Trade deas are only of benefit when it suits both sides.
If all we do is swop EU imports for those of another trading block how does this help the UK.

amideislas Sep 18th 2016 11:30 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12055406)
I watched the video-- did you read the link I put this morning? ---Cardiff Business School--regarding trade post Brexit.

Do the people who voted to remain want the UK to fail in future trade deals? If yes, why?

No, I missed it, but I will read it now.

It's not that people want the UK to fail. It's that brexit was sold on a set of false premises, and ultimately will not result in any tangible upside for anyone. Seems like a silly a waste of a few trillion. For what? Blue passports?

Then there's this contingent of the brexit camp who are enthusiastically hoping for a collapse of Europe. Even actively encouraging it. Probably the single worst thing that could happen to Britain, in or out (aside from what it would do to Europe). What kind of logic is that?

Vexcore Sep 18th 2016 11:38 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12055254)
Mfe is legendary at it. Vex and TGA are no slouches. Even you seem to resort to it from time to time when all else fails. Dick, well he's in a class of his own.

Name dropping me huh.


I miss you too.

:lol:

AMIDEISLAS IS AMIDEISLAS

Red Eric Sep 18th 2016 11:42 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12055429)
Then there's this contingent of the brexit camp who are enthusiastically hoping for a collapse of Europe. Even actively encouraging it. Probably the single worst thing that could happen to Britain, in or out (aside from what it would do to Europe). What kind of logic is that?

It's called "Talking the EU down", I think ami. Been going on for 40 odd years.

jimenato Sep 18th 2016 11:47 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12055406)
I watched the video-- did you read the link I put this morning? ---Cardiff Business School--regarding trade post Brexit.

Do the people who voted to remain want the UK to fail in future trade deals? If yes, why?

No I didn't. Patrick Minford comes from a position of enormous self-admitted anti-EU bias. A working paper by him is not worth bothering with. On the other hand the link that ami put up is a video of the proceedings of a treasury sub-committee trying to sort the mess out - or at least establish what sort of mess it is. It's unbiased and informative.

I'm not quite sure why you ask the second question. Why do you think remain voters want the UK to fail at anything? Expecting or fearing a bad outcome is not the same as wanting it.

Bipat Sep 18th 2016 12:17 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by jimenato (Post 12055440)
No I didn't. Patrick Minford comes from a position of enormous self-admitted anti-EU bias. A working paper by him is not worth bothering with. On the other hand the link that ami put up is a video of the proceedings of a treasury sub-committee trying to sort the mess out - or at least establish what sort of mess it is. It's unbiased and informative.

I'm not quite sure why you ask the second question. Why do you think remain voters want the UK to fail at anything? Expecting or fearing a bad outcome is not the same as wanting it.

I think you answered my question! A paper by a Professor of Applied Economics is not worth bothering with---because he supports leaving the EU. An opinion different to your own---is "biased".
Certainly there is an enormous amount to be sorted out when there is a change to the status-quo. What makes this a "mess"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo_bias :lol:

amideislas Sep 18th 2016 12:19 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12055477)
What makes this a "mess"?

So, you didn't watch the proceedings after all?

EMR Sep 18th 2016 12:27 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12055477)
I think you answered my question! A paper by a Professor of Applied Economics is not worth bothering with---because he supports leaving the EU. An opinion different to your own---is "biased".
Certainly there is an enormous amount to be sorted out when there is a change to the status-quo. What makes this a "mess"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status_quo_bias :lol:

Article in Sunday Times, division in the cabinet, Fox and Boris wanting to take a hard line on Brexit.
Fox having to tone down his trade talks with other nations including the US.
The UK while still an EU member is unable to enter into trade talks with any other nation already in discussion with the EU.
Brexit is certainly going to be a long and very complicated process .
The conversion into British law of thousands of EU regulations that are now part of everyday life in the UK has yet to be even started.
Fisheries, Agruculture etc etc etc.

It is not just about trade, far from it.

Bipat Sep 18th 2016 12:27 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12055419)
The facts are that the UK does not have the manufacturing caoacity to benefit from large scale trade deals.
We are a nation of importers.
Trade deas are only of benefit when it suits both sides.
If all we do is swop EU imports for those of another trading block how does this help the UK.

Just found this, I didn't know we exported 'feathers'!!
(The link does not show all the countries UK exports to).

Top UK Exports

EMR Sep 18th 2016 12:43 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12055491)
Just found this, I didn't know we exported 'feathers'!!
(The link does not show all the countries UK exports to).

Top UK Exports

What % OF UK manufacturing capacity is available for exports.
When you are back in the UK look for made in the UK labels.
If we are to succeed we have to be able to manufacture and export in huge volumes and reduce our imports.
This sadly is an impossibility and a pipe dream of a few brexiters.

Red Eric Sep 18th 2016 12:51 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
It's not just Brexsceptics who are unconvinced by the term "Brexit is Brexit" - Lievers are divided about it too, apparently. So much so that they have devised a cunningly similar little motto and campaign group wittily called :lol: "Leave Means Leave" :lol::lol: (did you see what they did there?).

These hotheads want it all over as quickly as possible. Recipe for disaster means disaster if you ask me.

Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit | Politics | The Guardian

amideislas Sep 18th 2016 12:55 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
UK exports of GOODS represents about 10% of GDP. Services exports represent 18%. Total services represent 70% of GDP. 3/4 of those are non exportable public services (e.g., NHS).

Financial services account for nearly 20% of tax revenues. Most of that is in global financial trades with Europe. That's likely to go along with brexit. Along with global corporate HQs established in the UK to conduct business in Europe. And the jobs they support.

Anyone who believes the UK will somehow export its way out of the losses is fooling themselves.

May knows this now. She's already carefully setting expectations.

Yeah, Boris is still talking "hard brexit", which would quickly send the UK into sheer tailspin.

After she slapped down her team for saying that the UK would leave the single market, it appears she hasn't ruled out anything yet. The possibility of EEA membership (which would technically be "leaving the EU"), is still a possibility. And it could be spun as "Brexit". It would certainly be the least damaging for all.


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