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EMR Sep 17th 2016 12:01 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Vexcore (Post 12054673)
Wont things be changed the second article 50 is triggered?


Prices
Tax
Sterling
House Prices
Passports
Laws
Rules

Because we all know we haven't 'hit brexit yet' Jan/Feb 2017 is when they will trigger Article 50.

How do you feel about the huge amount of legislation that WILL be passed transferring existing EU regulations into UK law.
British products will still have to carry the CE mark on exports.
British food and agriculture exports will still need to meet whatever the EU standard dictate.
British manufacturing standards and specifications will still need to meet whatever the EU standards dictate.

Former Lancastrian Sep 17th 2016 12:10 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12054689)
Is there a hypocrite running Ford pretending that he stands up for the USA.

I guess the question is is it just one person running Ford as the CEO who had to appear before the press has only been employed by Ford since 1 July 2014. Piers Morgan said he's pretty sure that he heard Henry Ford turn in his grave when the announcement was made.

I am a bit cynical of the Dyson, Branson and anyone else who say they love the UK and so proud to be British etc etc but are they really? they have all been criticized for this that and the other. Regardless of how rich you are or how successful your business is my idea of such people would be different if I was one of them or at least I would like to think so but power and money corrupts.

Hypothetically I invent something and I am living in Britain and I have faith in my product becoming a world sought after item. So I build a factory in the UK and start producing the item say a vacuum cleaner that is better than all the ones currently on the market. So what do I do next?
Demand increases so do I expand in the UK or set up production in certain countries to meet demand in geographical centres knowing that production and distribution costs would be cheaper or say Im proud to be British and to hell with how much profit I could make I will expand my UK production facilities and pay my UK workers a living wage and I can survive on millions rather than billions.

Is that too much to ask for or is that crazy thinking and bad business?

EMR Sep 17th 2016 12:12 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by TGA (Post 12054690)
:thumbsup:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH2Q08VQqzs

In years to come expect to see statues of this man all over Britain and Europe.

You really do live in a fantasy world.

amideislas Sep 17th 2016 12:25 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12054705)
I guess the question is is it just one person running Ford as the CEO who had to appear before the press has only been employed by Ford since 1 July 2014. Piers Morgan said he's pretty sure that he heard Henry Ford turn in his grave when the announcement was made.

I am a bit cynical of the Dyson, Branson and anyone else who say they love the UK and so proud to be British etc etc but are they really? they have all been criticized for this that and the other. Regardless of how rich you are or how successful your business is my idea of such people would be different if I was one of them or at least I would like to think so but power and money corrupts.

Hypothetically I invent something and I am living in Britain and I have faith in my product becoming a world sought after item. So I build a factory in the UK and start producing the item say a vacuum cleaner that is better than all the ones currently on the market. So what do I do next?
Demand increases so do I expand in the UK or set up production in certain countries to meet demand in geographical centres knowing that production and distribution costs would be cheaper or say Im proud to be British and to hell with how much profit I could make I will expand my UK production facilities and pay my UK workers a living wage and I can survive on millions rather than billions.

Is that too much to ask for or is that crazy thinking and bad business?

I have a question:

Would you see more opportunity in a market of 65 million consumers with a GDP of under 3 trillion (and falling) with little growth potential, or a market of 500 million with a GDP of 16 trillion with substantial growth potential?

Former Lancastrian Sep 17th 2016 12:43 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12054715)
I have a question:

Would you see more opportunity in a market of 65 million consumers with a GDP of under 3 trillion (and falling) with little growth potential, or a market of 500 million with a GDP of 16 trillion with substantial growth potential?

Its a good question but depending on my business is that something I want?

Take Rolls Royce motor cars or a few others be it Louis Vuitton, Rolex or Hermes.
Do companies like these want to sell to the masses or average Jane & John Doe or do they produce a product that has limited production and only available to a select few. Now when money is no object it doesn't matter if you want it you will find a way to get it. Seriously who pays $30,000 for a handbag or wants one? They seem to do quite well whereas a company like McDonalds wants to open anywhere it can. Agreed while the prospect of making billions sounds enticing not all business owners want that and don't want their product to be owned by everyone.

Rolls Royce can always buy my vacuums and throw them in as a freebie to the ones who buy their cars :lol:

amideislas Sep 17th 2016 12:56 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Luxury items are nice.

But that's not the basis of the UK's economy. Or Europe's.

The UK is an 80% service based economy, 70% of those services are non-exportable public services, paid for with tax revenues, about 40% of that paid for in tax revenues generated from global trade with Europe (including financial services, which alone account for about 17% of Britain's overall tax revenues).

In contrast, the vast majority of Europe's economy is in export of goods. Agriculture, manufacturing, machinery, tools, etc... Largest trading partners? The USA and China.

Economy of the European Union

Dick Dasterdly Sep 17th 2016 1:12 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
EU summit: dark clouds over Bratislava | Europe | DW.COM | 16.09.2016

Former Lancastrian Sep 17th 2016 1:25 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12054739)
Luxury items are nice.

But that's not the basis of the UK's economy. Or Europe's.

The UK is an 80% service based economy, 70% of those services are non-exportable public services, paid for with tax revenues, about 40% of that paid for in tax revenues generated from global trade with Europe (including financial services, which alone account for about 17% of Britain's overall tax revenues).

In contrast, the vast majority of Europe's economy is in export of goods. Agriculture, manufacturing, machinery, tools, etc... Largest trading partners? The USA and China.

Economy of the European Union

So why can't the UK be like Canada and not be part of a club?
Around 700 UK companies are doing business in Canada. These include well known companies like Carillion, HSBC, Aviva and Burberry. Canada is the UK’s 16th largest export market for goods. Top 10 UK exports to Canada are:

petroleum products
aerospace parts
pharmaceuticals
motor vehicles
aircraft engines
gold
medical products
spirits
transport vehicles
tractors
UK goods and service exports to Canada were worth £7.5 billion in 2013.

Thats just one country. So why can't you do that with other countries?

amideislas Sep 17th 2016 1:26 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
For once, dick posts something that has some truth to it.

It's true. Europe faces an "existential crisis", fuelled mainly by extremist, isolationist views, greatly exaggerated by Britain's sensationalist, nationalist rhetoric, and the referendum result. Extremism is indeed becoming popular, worldwide.

It's encouraging though, that the leadership are seriously debating solutions, instead of adopting the British tactic of simply tossing a grenade on it and hoping it all works out.

EMR Sep 17th 2016 1:45 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12054759)
So why can't the UK be like Canada and not be part of a club?
Around 700 UK companies are doing business in Canada. These include well known companies like Carillion, HSBC, Aviva and Burberry. Canada is the UK’s 16th largest export market for goods. Top 10 UK exports to Canada are:

petroleum products
aerospace parts
pharmaceuticals
motor vehicles
aircraft engines
gold
medical products
spirits
transport vehicles
tractors
UK goods and service exports to Canada were worth £7.5 billion in 2013.

Thats just one country. So why can't you do that with other countries?

No reason just a lack of manufacturing capacity, skills and companies producing what the world wants at prices we can still make a profit at.
Technology was always where we were ahead if the world, Rolls Royce engines market leaders.
But all that us changing, China has now entered that market and will in a few years become a dominant player.
Our motor vehicle industry is foreign owned . North sea oil production peaked long ago.
None of the products you refer to require and employ large numbers of unskilled workers.
That is the UK's biggest problem it does not have and will not have industries that can absorb its current skill base labour pool .
The value of exports is only part of the equation, the profitability , numbers employed, growth potential also have to be considered.

Red Eric Sep 17th 2016 1:51 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12054631)
So under the current rules any citizen of the 28 member countries of the EU can basically choose to live and work in any of the 28 countries if they wish to do so which sounds good if all countries were equal.

So what does the average painter and decorator living in Estonia make as an hourly wage compared to the UK? So who could blame a family from Estonia from wanting to uproot and move to the UK for the chance of a better life PROVIDED they can find a home to live in and find jobs. But what happens when they arrive and they can't find work or a place to live does the UK support them with any benefits? If so are the benefits they receive better than they would get if back in Estonia and working? If so thats where there might be a problem.

The answer to the benefits question is that there is no immediate entitlement to any assistance from the state and that even when it is available it would be at the discretion of a claims officer. 3 months in the country and a registration certificate would be the absolute minimum requirement for claiming any sort of out of work benefit and if you haven't got an address you can almost certainly forget about it.

I actually think that particular scenario is highly unlikely - it's far more likely that the family would remain behind at least until the jobseeker had found work and that they might well remain there even then. And I also think that it's not partcularly common for people to turn up without a sniff of a job - there's a lot of recruitment of cheap labour that goes on outside the countries that are supplied with it.

There's been bits and pieces in the news and current affairs type programmes here in Portugal about this sort of thing - Portugal being one of the worst hit by the financial crisis and having lost a lot of people going abroad for work. There was a young couple who were featured - they moved to London with what savings they had and were suitably impressed by the price of everything. They threw themselves into finding accommodation before they wasted the friendship of the people whose hospitality they relied on upon arrival and work before they burned through their entire savings. They got there eventually - found a place to live and a job each. One was a hotel receptionist, the other in a fast food joint or something. Way beneath what they were qualified for but hey, this is LONDON. It's great. And they were living in what looked like a converted garage. Pretty crap looking and bloody cold by their account but reassuringly expensive, especially for the first month when they had to pay the deposit and the month in advance etc.

The follow-up programme showed them back at home in Portugal. They'd come to realise they were never going to get the well-paid jobs with a future that they'd hoped for and that living hand-to-mouth in the UK was just like living hand-to-mouth in Portugal, only worse from their point of view.

And that, I suspect, is about how it goes for a lot of people.

la mancha Sep 17th 2016 1:52 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Ami
I don’t understand your logic. (Who does?) Are you saying that, if the EU puts tariffs on UK goods the UK will not reciprocate? Are you seriously saying that the UK is so dependent on EU goods that we will not source them from elsewhere if tariffs make their goods expensive? Where do you get the idea that the UK is SO dependent on EU goods? The Eurozone exports 12% of their goods to the UK, and if the economy here tanks, as you say (over and over – yawn – again), then we won’t be buying all those cars or many other goods made in the Eurozone. And the Eurozone will take a hefty hit if tariffs make them more expensive than elsewhere in the world. How can you say the EU will not lose exports to the UK? Pure fantasy. What is it with you and this 500 million market? It will be roughly 430 million after we leave and most of them are poor. As you keep saying, it is the UK which is a consumer market, which is why the EU needs to keep us happy. You are so isolationist. There is a world market of billions out there. And your assumption is that when we leave the single market our market will be reduced to 65 million. Won’t we export to European nations again? Won’t we export worldwide? We now export more non-EU nations. What 65 million market? It has all been said before. Get another record. This one is worn out.

Lion in Winter Sep 17th 2016 1:58 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Vexcore (Post 12054673)
Wont things be changed the second article 50 is triggered?


Prices
Tax
Sterling
House Prices
Passports
Laws
Rules

Because we all know we haven't 'hit brexit yet' Jan/Feb 2017 is when they will trigger Article 50.

House prices could move, so could sterling.

The answer to everything else is "no". Article 50 is just the beginning of the formal negotiation phase, and that's all.

Everything else will require months to years of work and expense and legislation.

Red Eric Sep 17th 2016 2:00 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Vexcore (Post 12054673)
Wont things be changed the second article 50 is triggered?


Prices
Tax
Sterling
House Prices
Passports
Laws
Rules

Because we all know we haven't 'hit brexit yet' Jan/Feb 2017 is when they will trigger Article 50.

A lot of things won't actually change until after the Article 50 negotiations have ended, which will be a long, long time after it's triggered. So maybe no blue passport for the foreseeable future because the UK is still a full member of the EU and subject to all of its rules until those negotiations are complete.

But if you're looking for a likely time for any signs of economic turbulence as a result of the triggering of Article 50, I'd say it won't happen immediately - maybe a slight tremor in the markets for a week or two and then it'll settle down again. Probably not until the 2nd year of negotiations for any significant trends is my guess.

amideislas Sep 17th 2016 2:17 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12054784)
Ami
I don’t understand your logic. (Who does?) Are you saying that, if the EU puts tariffs on UK goods the UK will not reciprocate? Are you seriously saying that the UK is so dependent on EU goods that we will not source them from elsewhere if tariffs make their goods expensive? Where do you get the idea that the UK is SO dependent on EU goods? The Eurozone exports 12% of their goods to the UK, and if the economy here tanks, as you say (over and over – yawn – again), then we won’t be buying all those cars or many other goods made in the Eurozone. And the Eurozone will take a hefty hit if tariffs make them more expensive than elsewhere in the world. How can you say the EU will not lose exports to the UK? Pure fantasy. What is it with you and this 500 million market? It will be roughly 430 million after we leave and most of them are poor. As you keep saying, it is the UK which is a consumer market, which is why the EU needs to keep us happy. You are so isolationist. There is a world market of billions out there. And your assumption is that when we leave the single market our market will be reduced to 65 million. Won’t we export to European nations again? Won’t we export worldwide? We now export more non-EU nations. What 65 million market? It has all been said before. Get another record. This one is worn out.

Well, it's the very same logic I've been offering all along. And it's not complicated. Frankly, the fact that you still don't get it is a bit suspicious.

Isolationist? Huh?

The UK is an import economy, not an export economy. It is dependent upon imports (cannot produce what it consumes). These imports must be affordable, and they are at present, because most come from just across the channel, with low shipping costs and no import duties attached.

That makes the UK all but dependent on European imports (particularly fresh stuff, fruit & veg, etc.) Machinery too. And building materials, glass, cement, bricks, plastics..

To impose tariffs on European imports would only raise prices in the UK. They'd still buy the stuff, although less of it, because it would be less affordable. But they still need it. The fall in the pound will also contribute to inflation as well. Everything's going to get more expensive in the UK no matter what. It's all imported.

Europe, on the other hand, is not remotely dependent upon UK imports. Europe has comparatively huge agriculture, manufactures cars and machines and tools and medical equipment, and building materials and frankly, can easily supply enough goods to sustain itself, with or without Britain. And it will still be exporting to Britain anyway, so that's not a tangible brexit concern really. But even if Britain decided to foolishly go into full protectionist (isolationist?) mode, Europe exports far more to the rest of the world anyway, so...

Oh, by the way, in case you hadn't noticed, 430 million is significantly larger than 65 million. In fact, still 100 million larger than the US. Let's see.. Do we want to HQ in Britain? Or Europe?


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