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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

DaveLovesDee Sep 10th 2016 11:31 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian (Post 12048877)
But you don't have to Brexit or leave the EU as its not a binding legal decision and I don't believe the EU has the legal authority to expel the UK if Article 50 is not triggered. Now some are thinking it would be stupid not to follow through but worst case scenario what would happen. A few riots and demonstrations its not like the UK has never experienced those before :lol:

Seriously what would happen if article 50 was not triggered?

I hope Parliament decides it's in the UK's interests to remain a member. And no, the EU won't expel us if Article 50 isn't triggered.

If Article 50 isn't triggered, I suspect Labour will win the next election, which may not be a bad thing depending on who their leader is. And a lot of Leavers doing the same thing they accuse Remainers of doing now. :p

Dick Dasterdly Sep 10th 2016 11:38 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Labour will win the next election. :rofl:

:flypig::flypig::flypig:

I'll go with Accrington Stanley will win the European Cup.

Any advance on that ?

:rofl:

DaveLovesDee Sep 11th 2016 12:00 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12048889)
Labour will win the next election. :rofl:

:flypig::flypig::flypig:

I'll go with Accrington Stanley will win the European Cup.

Any advance on that ?

:rofl:

Labour will field candidates in the next election. Accrington Stanley haven't qualified for the European Cup.

One has a much higher likelihood than the other, and it isn't your fantasy.

There'll be a lot of disillusioned voters if the Tories fail to trigger Article 50 and Brexit before the next election. Which means that Article 50 should be triggered within the next 1 year, 7 months and 25 days to have left before election day.

Former Lancastrian Sep 11th 2016 12:11 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12048889)
Labour will win the next election. :rofl:

:flypig::flypig::flypig:

I'll go with Accrington Stanley will win the European Cup.

Any advance on that ?

:rofl:

Well at least it would be another northern team winning it along with Liverpool and Manchester United. How many London clubs have ever won it?
Hint you only need one finger :rofl:

jimenato Sep 11th 2016 6:53 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Did this happen?


I would expect the new Prime Minister on September 9th to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months.

So within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU. Trade deals with the US and China alone will give us a trade area almost twice the size of the EU, and of course we will also be seeking deals with Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, India, Japan, the UAE, Indonesia – and many others.
I didn't spot it but good show if it did - Brexit going much better than I and many other remainers expected - quite easy in fact.

So perhaps we've been wrong all along and we had better just shut up.

mfesharne Sep 11th 2016 7:00 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Invoking Article 50: the Law, the Constitution and Politics

Bipat Sep 11th 2016 7:08 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by jimenato (Post 12049002)
Did this happen?



I didn't spot it but good show if it did - Brexit going much better than I and many other remainers expected - quite easy in fact.

So perhaps we've been wrong all along and we had better just shut up.

I have put several links regarding trade deal talks going on here in India--often 'rubbished' by 'remainers on this thread.

amideislas Sep 11th 2016 7:21 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 
There is a belief that a UK on its own will somehow prosper on "trade deals". But that notion dismisses the fact that other than a modest consuming market, a stand alone UK has little else to offer in return.

The UK is a service economy. The vast majority (about 80%) of its GDP is generated via public services. These aren't exportable. The UK doesn't produce much, has few natural resources, doesn't export much...

But it is highly dependent on >imports<, so whoever has a trade deal with the UK can sell stuff to Britain. So that's a good deal. But then again, Europe (a nearby heavily export economy) will be supplying much of the UK's imports no matter what, so there's not much of a story there either.

I don't believe anyone rubbished it. It's just that in the big scheme of things, it's rather insignificant. For Britain anyway.

Editha Sep 11th 2016 7:26 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12049012)
There is a belief that a UK on its own will somehow prosper on "trade deals". But that notion dismisses the fact that other than a modest consuming market, a stand alone UK has little else to offer in return.

The UK is a service economy. The vast majority (about 80%) of its GDP is generated via public services. These aren't exportable. The UK doesn't produce much, has few natural resources, doesn't export much...

But it is highly dependent on >imports<, so whoever has a trade deal with the UK can sell stuff to Britain. So that's a good deal. But then again, Europe (a nearby heavily export economy) will be supplying much of the UK's imports no matter what, so there's not much of a story there either.

I don't believe anyone rubbished it. It's just that in the big scheme of things, it's rather insignificant. For Britain anyway.

You are muddling 'public services', which don't produce GDP at all, with financial services, which are responsible for over 70% of GDP and which can be exported.

amideislas Sep 11th 2016 7:35 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Editha (Post 12049015)
You are muddling 'public services', which don't produce GDP at all, with financial services, which are responsible for over 70% of GDP and which can be exported.

Look it up. UK economy.

For example, the NHS is the UK's largest employer.

Financial services, the UK's largest export (Europe representing the largest volume of trades) accounts for about 10% of GDP. Still a lot.

Editha Sep 11th 2016 7:40 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12049021)
Look it up. UK economy.

For example, the NHS is the UK's largest employer.

Financial services, the UK's largest export (Europe representing the largest volume of trades) accounts for about 10% of GDP. Still a lot.

Your link confirms what I already posted.

Bipat Sep 11th 2016 7:41 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12049012)
There is a belief that a UK on its own will somehow prosper on "trade deals". But that notion dismisses the fact that other than a modest consuming market, a stand alone UK has little else to offer in return.

The UK is a service economy. The vast majority (about 80%) of its GDP is generated via public services. These aren't exportable. The UK doesn't produce much, has few natural resources, doesn't export much...

But it is highly dependent on >imports<, so whoever has a trade deal with the UK can sell stuff to Britain. So that's a good deal. But then again, Europe (a nearby heavily export economy) will be supplying much of the UK's imports no matter what, so there's not much of a story there either.

I don't believe anyone rubbished it. It's just that in the big scheme of things, it's rather insignificant. For Britain anyway.

It's not just exports, investment job creation etc.
After 9 years failure to reach agreement with EU regarding trade deal they are hopeful for a deal with UK.

Old link--but will increase further.

India emerges as third largest FDI source for U.K. - The Hindu

amideislas Sep 11th 2016 7:46 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12049024)
It's not just exports, investment job creation etc.
After 9 years failure to reach agreement with EU regarding trade deal they are hopeful for a deal with UK.

Old link--but will increase further.

India emerges as third largest FDI source for U.K. - The Hindu

That's great. But think about it. Island nation, , $2t GDP and a consumer market of 65 million, little growth potential. It sounds nice that India is willing to help. It's charitable.

amideislas Sep 11th 2016 7:50 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Editha (Post 12049023)
Your link confirms what I already posted.

Sorry, it doesn't. It clearly shows 79% service GDP, if you follow the link to financial services, it clearly shows 11% of GDP. (and 14% of total tax take - that's like free money by the way, because there's no public service burden).

Also says public services accounts for 48% of total GDP (or about 70% of services GDP, if my maths are working). By far the largest segment of UK GDP.

The great is in the details. Those pesky party-pooping details that few bother to look at when on the campaign stump.

Fredbargate Sep 11th 2016 7:51 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12048889)
Labour will win the next election. :rofl:

:flypig::flypig::flypig:

I'll go with Accrington Stanley will win the European Cup.

Any advance on that ?

:rofl:

Blyth Spartans or any Gibraltar team ;)


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