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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

morpeth Dec 15th 2017 9:09 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12400441)
Those are all clearly negatives of brexit, but on the other hand we have a reduction in mass migration (with negative impacts on housing, wages and productivity, especially the low payed, low skilled), a reduction in our circa £10B net payment a year, the ability to strike appropriate trade deals with the rest of the world, more direct democracy, etc.

My personal circumstances led me to believe that the positives of the EU outweighed the negatives, but that does not mean there were no negatives nor that other peoples circumstances would not have produced an entirely logical opposite opinion.

Good point about the effect on housing and wages of the low payed and low skilled workers. I wonder though if there are protections for EU workers already in Britain, and continued immigration at current rates, when would the pressure on housing and services subside ? Have there been any good articles or studies on this particular issue ?

On the trade deals already made my comments, I think it is sheer fantasy to expect any significant benefit from the mystical trade deals we hear about- and could end up being negative for Britain. Would a desperate Britain sign a better deal than America did with NAFTA ? Not sure.

Cape Blue Dec 15th 2017 9:34 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12400456)
Funnily enough, democracy works through the result of actual specific votes, not what people may or may not say to exit and other pollers. And, quite simply, what they voted on was:

"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

Nothing more, nothing less.

Funnily enough? I didn't realise you were one as well. Shame.

Yes it did, and leaving the EU means leaving the EU - which would be FOM, SM, CU, ECJ and so-on, otherwise it won't be leaving.

Giantaxe Dec 15th 2017 9:39 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12400479)
Funnily enough? I didn't realise you were one as well. Shame.

One what??


Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12400479)
Yes it did, and leaving the EU means leaving the EU - which would be FOM, SM, CU, ECJ and so-on, otherwise it won't be leaving.

That's your opinion. EEA member Norway, otoh, chose not to join the EU - in a referendum, no less - but still is subject to the ECJ and free movement. If Britain chose to follow that course it would be in full compliance with the EU referendum result. Too bad logic isn't your strong point.

Cape Blue Dec 15th 2017 9:48 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12400468)
Good point about the effect on housing and wages of the low payed and low skilled workers. I wonder though if there are protections for EU workers already in Britain, and continued immigration at current rates, when would the pressure on housing and services subside ? Have there been any good articles or studies on this particular issue ?

On the trade deals already made my comments, I think it is sheer fantasy to expect any significant benefit from the mystical trade deals we hear about- and could end up being negative for Britain. Would a desperate Britain sign a better deal than America did with NAFTA ? Not sure.

There will be protection for existing EU migrants, most definitely. Whether there will be continued net immigration at current rates (pre-referendum 350,000 pa, post-referendum 250,000 pa) is certainly up in the air - the Tories have stated they will target sub-100,000 pa but they have failed dismally on non-EU migration reduction so no guarantees.

I've not seen any good articles on it, I don't read the knee-jerk right wing media and the more nuanced versions are often behind paywalls. The left wing media bury their heads and pretend supply & demand isn't a thing.

On the trade deal with the EU, the politics of the EU will cause a problem, but there's no reason why a country like the UK whose alignment with the EU is more than any other country will not get a sensible quality FTA.

Other trade deals - well, the UK will only need to negotiate between the UK and the US or the UK and Canada etc, one of the reasons for the EU's protracted FTA negotiations with various countries is that yogurt makers in Greece or Wallonian politicians or any other special interests across the EU 28 can hold things up. The EU also has to trade-away some things the UK might find significant to obtain something Latvia, Italy or Holland thinks is a complete deal-breaker, so there is an opportunity for the UK to get better deals for the UK even though we are a smaller market.

I'm not sure why the UK would be "desperate" - can you tell me why you think it would be? The WTO does not seem a complete hell.

Cape Blue Dec 15th 2017 9:54 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12400482)
One what??



That's your opinion. EEA member Norway, otoh, chose not to join the EU - in a referendum, no less - but still is subject to the ECJ and free movement. If Britain chose to follow that course it would be in full compliance with the EU referendum result. Too bad logic isn't your strong point.

One of those petty people that can only throw abuse rather than have a reasonable discussion about brexit. There are plenty of normal remainers and brexiters around who can do this, but the pre-referendum kipper swivel-eyed-loons and post-referendum remainiacs can only throw abuse.

Yes, of course the UK could leave the EU but then stay in all its major institutions (delightful "logic" quip), but it's pretty clear that would be LINO and against both the spirit of the referendum and the main desires of the majority of the voting electorate who voted leave.

Giantaxe Dec 15th 2017 10:01 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12400488)
One of those petty people that can only throw abuse rather than have a reasonable discussion about brexit. There are plenty of normal remainers and brexiters around who can do this, but the pre-referendum kipper swivel-eyed-loons and post-referendum remainiacs can only throw abuse.

Ah, I see SultanOfSwing was right.... you really can't argue without abuse. Oh well.

Cape Blue Dec 15th 2017 10:16 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12400493)
Ah, I see SultanOfSwing was right.... you really can't argue without abuse. Oh well.

You're the one starting off responses with the huffy "funnily enough" attitude and then coughing up the nasty little "too bad logic isn't your strong point".

I have merely pointed out that there are normal leavers and remainers who can see the pros and cons of brexit and discuss in a decent fashion, then there are the extreme brexiters (swivel-eyed-loon types) and extreme remainers (remoaners, remainiacs) who are so fixated on their "side" they have no balance and can only throw abuse at others who don't agree with them.

Giantaxe Dec 15th 2017 10:18 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12400497)
You're the one starting off responses with the huffy "funnily enough" attitude and then coughing up the nasty little "too bad logic isn't your strong point".

I have merely pointed out that there are normal leavers and remainers who can see the pros and cons of brexit and discuss in a decent fashion, then there are the extreme brexiters (swivel-eyed-loon types) and extreme remainers (remoaners, remainiacs) who are so fixated on their "side" they have no balance and can only throw abuse at others who don't agree with them.

Keep digging.... all you're doing is illustrating how right SultanOfSwing was. And looking at some of your past posts, it's not exactly hard to see why he wrote that.

Cape Blue Dec 15th 2017 10:27 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Giantaxe (Post 12400498)
Keep digging.... all you're doing is illustrating how right SultanOfSwing was. And looking at some of your past posts, it's not exactly hard to see why he wrote that.

That's a real shame, I thought you were better than that. Oh well.

morpeth Dec 16th 2017 12:26 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12400485)
There will be protection for existing EU migrants, most definitely. Whether there will be continued net immigration at current rates (pre-referendum 350,000 pa, post-referendum 250,000 pa) is certainly up in the air - the Tories have stated they will target sub-100,000 pa but they have failed dismally on non-EU migration reduction so no guarantees.

I've not seen any good articles on it, I don't read the knee-jerk right wing media and the more nuanced versions are often behind paywalls. The left wing media bury their heads and pretend supply & demand isn't a thing.

On the trade deal with the EU, the politics of the EU will cause a problem, but there's no reason why a country like the UK whose alignment with the EU is more than any other country will not get a sensible quality FTA.

Other trade deals - well, the UK will only need to negotiate between the UK and the US or the UK and Canada etc, one of the reasons for the EU's protracted FTA negotiations with various countries is that yogurt makers in Greece or Wallonian politicians or any other special interests across the EU 28 can hold things up. The EU also has to trade-away some things the UK might find significant to obtain something Latvia, Italy or Holland thinks is a complete deal-breaker, so there is an opportunity for the UK to get better deals for the UK even though we are a smaller market.

I'm not sure why the UK would be "desperate" - can you tell me why you think it would be? The WTO does not seem a complete hell.

I have the same problem with news sources from either right or left.

I say desperate because I think as the full extent of this disaster called Brexit is felt, the politicians will be desperate to produce some "good" news.

As far as trade deals I see your point but basic economics I think dictates any substantive benefits the EU as a stronger market can also get. I am also skeptical about trade deals as not all deals are beneficial overall or for specific industries. I could see a trade deal with USA/Canada and maybe Australia as part of close political/military ties, but neither May nor Trump I think have enough vision to do so.

DaveLovesDee Dec 16th 2017 5:20 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12400256)
Her employers, the voting electorate

And there's your latest inaccurate assertion.

The voting public are not May's employers. Neither is any other politician an employee of the general public.

DaveLovesDee Dec 16th 2017 5:24 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing (Post 12400282)
We really should just stop getting each other presents but I'm damned if she's not going to have something to open on Christmas, even if it is just a box of zebra cakes.

Put a bow on the oven door...... :p

DaveLovesDee Dec 16th 2017 5:28 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12400324)
Leave means leave - no ECJ, non FOM, no SM, no CU. If we don't leave those we have not left the EU.

So, hard Brexit then!

Exactly what the UK doesn't need.

scrubbedexpat099 Dec 16th 2017 5:30 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12400576)
So, hard Brexit then!

Exactly what the UK doesn't need.

Sort of what we had before we got involved with this mess. Life went on.

DaveLovesDee Dec 16th 2017 5:30 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12400330)
When people voted Brexit they voted to leave free movement and leave ECJ controls

I didn't notice that on the ballot question?


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