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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

Cape Blue Nov 12th 2017 8:03 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12380276)
You are confusing nett and gross immigration or are you?
The UK has had a housing crisis for decades if not longer.
Only an idiot would think that economic and migration policy should be linked to the UKs long standing policy failures, by government after government to provide enough social housing or affordable homes.

No, I'm not.

Pre referendum we had:

Net migration inwards since 1996.

Net immigration running at 350,000 pa
Gross immigration running at 650,000 pa
Babies born to foreign mothers in the UK running at 200,000 pa.

So the immigration-driven population increase was 350,000 + 200,000 = 550,000 pa.

There is demand-side pressure across all three major tenures - private owned, private rented, social rented - it is nothing to do with council houses etc it is down to either too much demand or not enough supply (across all tenures).

As the principle change is not that we have knocked down houses, nor that we have not built houses, but that we have a 550,000 pa population expansion due to immigration, this might be the best place to start examining a solution.

I'll ignore your "idiot" comment, so many remainiacs can do nothing else but insult others when they have no argument it has become the norm.

Novocastrian Nov 12th 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12380533)
No, I'm not.

Pre referendum we had:

Net migration inwards since 1996.

Net immigration running at 350,000 pa
Gross immigration running at 650,000 pa
Babies born to foreign mothers in the UK running at 200,000 pa.

So the immigration-driven population increase was 350,000 + 200,000 = 550,000 pa.

There is demand-side pressure across all three major tenures - private owned, private rented, social rented - it is nothing to do with council houses etc it is down to either too much demand or not enough supply (across all tenures).

As the principle change is not that we have knocked down houses, nor that we have not built houses, but that we have a 550,000 pa population expansion due to immigration, this might be the best place to start examining a solution.

I'll ignore your "idiot" comment, so many remainiacs can do nothing else but insult others when they have no argument it has become the norm.

I really should stop responding to your nonsense. So I will.

But as a parting comment, Brexit isn't going to happen because it's impossible to extricate the UK form Europe.

Madame May is toast, very lightly done. Boris is going to be sacked in her last gasp effort to rescue herself. She will fail to push the Exit Bill through. The hard line Brexiters will backstab each other one by two, there will be an election in early 2018
(I thought it might be this year and perhaps it still will, but we can't forget Christmas).

Corbyn will win and Article 50 will be rescinded.

Sorry.

EMR Nov 12th 2017 8:56 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12380533)
No, I'm not.

Pre referendum we had:

Net migration inwards since 1996.

Net immigration running at 350,000 pa
Gross immigration running at 650,000 pa
Babies born to foreign mothers in the UK running at 200,000 pa.

So the immigration-driven population increase was 350,000 + 200,000 = 550,000 pa.

There is demand-side pressure across all three major tenures - private owned, private rented, social rented - it is nothing to do with council houses etc it is down to either too much demand or not enough supply (across all tenures).

As the principle change is not that we have knocked down houses, nor that we have not built houses, but that we have a 550,000 pa population expansion due to immigration, this might be the best place to start examining a solution.

I'll ignore your "idiot" comment, so many remainiacs can do nothing else but insult others when they have no argument it has become the norm.

For those with your obvious prejudices , I could go a lot further when it comes to what you refer to as insults.
Watching UK tv and seeing all those Christmas adverts from the major retailers featuring multi racial,multi cultural families either immigrants or born of immigrants must really p you off..
Every child born the UK has the right to be British, just like you.
Another thing that must P you off.
Using your figures 200,000 new Brits every year.

DaveLovesDee Nov 12th 2017 9:34 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12380533)
Net immigration running at 350,000 pa

Most of whom are working or studying, or their family members.


Gross immigration running at 650,000 pa
Which includes Brits and their family members returning from abroad, and EU and non-EU (and their family members) migration to the UK. Gross immigration, while it gets headlines, doesn't count those leaving the UK. All it does is provide fuel for the anti-immigration tabloids and their readers.


Babies born to foreign mothers in the UK running at 200,000 pa.
Immigration: UK births to women born abroad reach record number


Over a quarter of births in England and Wales in 2015 were to women born outside the UK, the highest level on record. It means there were 192,227 live births to women born outside the UK and 505,588 to UK-born women.

The new data showed that the small increase in births between 2014 and 2015 resulted from a 2.5 per cent rise in births to women born outside the UK, while births to UK-born women decreased by 0.4 per cent.

Poland was the most common country of birth for mothers born outside the UK, followed by Pakistan and India. Pakistan was the most common country of birth for fathers born outside the UK, followed by Poland and India.
So the nationals of three countries, two of which have historically produced large families to increase the chances of some surviving to adulthood, are the major causes of increases in children born to foreign parents.


So the immigration-driven population increase was 350,000 + 200,000 = 550,000 pa.
What's the answer? Stopping/reducing immigration, or stopping migrants from having children?

Cape Blue Nov 12th 2017 9:35 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Novocastrian (Post 12380548)
I really should stop responding to your nonsense. So I will.

But as a parting comment, Brexit isn't going to happen because it's impossible to extricate the UK form Europe.

Madame May is toast, very lightly done. Boris is going to be sacked in her last gasp effort to rescue herself. She will fail to push the Exit Bill through. The hard line Brexiters will backstab each other one by two, there will be an election in early 2018
(I thought it might be this year and perhaps it still will, but we can't forget Christmas).

Corbyn will win and Article 50 will be rescinded.

Sorry.

Why is it nonsense? It's just numbers.

I agree the Tories are making a bad fist of it.

What makes you think Corbyn is less of a brexiter than Bojo? He's been a brexiter for donkeys years, just doesn't have the moxy to front up and say it.

Cape Blue Nov 12th 2017 9:39 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12380555)
For those with your obvious prejudices , I could go a lot further when it comes to what you refer to as insults.
Watching UK tv and seeing all those Christmas adverts from the major retailers featuring multi racial,multi cultural families either immigrants or born of immigrants must really p you off..
Every child born the UK has the right to be British, just like you.
Another thing that must P you off.
Using your figures 200,000 new Brits every year.

There is no prejudice, there are just numbers and fundamental economic principles. Leftists and remainiacs like to throw words like prejudice, bigotry etc out when they have no argument left to close down the discussion - it's very juvenile and somewhat unpleasant (and entirely untrue).

Every child born in Britain is not automatically British.

Cape Blue Nov 12th 2017 9:46 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12380569)
Most of whom are working or studying, or their family members.

Yes, I have not suggested otherwise - unless they are living in cardboard boxes they are adding demand to housing and those working adding supply to working (and suppressing wages accordingly).


Which includes Brits and their family members returning from abroad, and EU and non-EU (and their family members) migration to the UK. Gross immigration, while it gets headlines, doesn't count those leaving the UK. All it does is provide fuel for the anti-immigration tabloids and their readers.
Yes, the gross number does include Brits returning to the UK (although it's a relatively small part) - I merely mentioned the gross number as EMR seemed to think I was conflating it with the net, which I wasn't.


So the nationals of three countries, two of which have historically produced large families to increase the chances of some surviving to adulthood, are the major causes of increases in children born to foreign parents.
So? The population still expands regardless of the reasons and regardless of which immigrants have the kids.


What's the answer? Stopping/reducing immigration, or stopping migrants from having children?
Net-zero immigration for an initial five-year period.

Bipat Nov 12th 2017 10:12 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12380569)
Most of whom are working or studying, or their family members.



Which includes Brits and their family members returning from abroad, and EU and non-EU (and their family members) migration to the UK. Gross immigration, while it gets headlines, doesn't count those leaving the UK. All it does is provide fuel for the anti-immigration tabloids and their readers.



Immigration: UK births to women born abroad reach record number



So the nationals of three countries, two of which have historically produced large families to increase the chances of some surviving to adulthood, are the major causes of increases in children born to foreign parents.



What's the answer? Stopping/reducing immigration, or stopping migrants from having children?


The three countries with largest individual numbers of migrants are bound to have the highest number of births.

(To be accurate, although Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities have a high birth rate the Indian birth rate in India has sharply declined--2.3 in 2013 and thought to be less now.
The historic larger families there were mostly due to lack of birth control measures rather than for increasing survival rates.)

EMR Nov 12th 2017 11:14 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12380575)
There is no prejudice, there are just numbers and fundamental economic principles. Leftists and remainiacs like to throw words like prejudice, bigotry etc out when they have no argument left to close down the discussion - it's very juvenile and somewhat unpleasant (and entirely untrue).

Every child born in Britain is not automatically British.

You record regarding those who now live in London, different nationalities, religion etc speaks for itself.
However you want to wrap it.

Lion in Winter Nov 12th 2017 11:40 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12380575)
There is no prejudice, there are just numbers and fundamental economic principles. Leftists and remainiacs like to throw words like prejudice, bigotry etc out when they have no argument left to close down the discussion - it's very juvenile and somewhat unpleasant (and entirely untrue).

Whereas throwing around silly terms like "remainiac" and accusing people of being "leftists" because they feel it's ok for the non-rich to live in Zone 2 is perfectly sensible, grown-up behaviour...

Lion in Winter Nov 12th 2017 11:48 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12380570)
Why is it nonsense? It's just numbers.

I agree the Tories are making a bad fist of it.

What makes you think Corbyn is less of a brexiter than Bojo? He's been a brexiter for donkeys years, just doesn't have the moxy to front up and say it.

Moxy? He's been saying it for years - since 1975 at least, when he voted to leave. His reasons are just those you would disapprove of because they are anti-capitalist in nature rather than anti-immigrant.

amideislas Nov 13th 2017 5:36 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12380570)
Why is it nonsense? It's just numbers.

I agree the Tories are making a bad fist of it.

What makes you think Corbyn is less of a brexiter than Bojo? He's been a brexiter for donkeys years, just doesn't have the moxy to front up and say it.

You know, the funny thing about Corbyn and Brexit is that unlike the Tories, who see the EU as a lefty communist threat, Corbyn believes the EU represents right-wing out of control capitalism.

The laughable thing is that the EU is the "enemy" in both cases, but for opposite reasons. Even more laughable is that the EU exhibits neither of those things. In fact it's more "centered" than either the Tories or Labour (under Corbyn).

It appears as if Britain just needs an enemy to blame for whatever it's been led to believe is "bad" by the political machine (and its media).

EMR Nov 13th 2017 7:20 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12380716)
You know, the funny thing about Corbyn and Brexit is that unlike the Tories, who see the EU as a lefty communist threat, Corbyn believes the EU represents right-wing out of control capitalism.

The laughable thing is that the EU is the "enemy" in both cases, but for opposite reasons. Even more laughable is that the EU exhibits neither of those things. In fact it's more "centered" than either the Tories or Labour (under Corbyn).

It appears as if Britain just needs an enemy to blame for whatever it's been led to believe is "bad" by the political machine (and its media).

It's part of our make up to look for someone or something to blame.
We are rarely beaten by a better team , there is always a multitude of other reasons for our failure.
Today for many, politicians and parts of the media its the EU and immigration that is responsible for almost every negative in the UK. Once we have Brexited we will be looking for another scapegoat or keep blaming the EU and immigration.

Lion in Winter Nov 13th 2017 1:58 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
Maybe we need to open a "when will she go" book on May. Her situation is becoming progressively more untenable. But then of course the people who are after her - Johnson, Gove, etc - aren't exactly prize material either.

iano Nov 13th 2017 2:03 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12381028)
Maybe we need to open a "when will she go" book on May. Her situation is becoming progressively more untenable. But then of course the people who are after her - Johnson, Gove, etc - aren't exactly prize material either.

Johnson and Gove make a great double act, has worked a treat in the past, we should call it BoGo.

Lump in Fox and Farage and we can call it BoGoFF.


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