British Expats

British Expats (https://britishexpats.com/forum/)
-   Take it Outside! (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/)
-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

DaveLovesDee Oct 16th 2017 10:19 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Garbatellamike (Post 12361907)
She's having dinner with Barnier and Juncker - anyone taking a bet that Juncker immediately after dinner declares himself less optimistic than last time they spoke?

I think she's wasting her time with those 2 and would be better off talking to Tusk, Merkel and Macron if she wants to try and "fix it"...

Tusk, Merkel and Macron (and the rest of the remaining EU27 leaders) have delegated the EU's side of Brexit negotiations to Barnier, so he is the one the UK should have already been talking to, but haven't. Remember, it's the EU27, not the EU2 + Tusk.


Originally Posted by Garbatellamike (Post 12361928)
I completely and wholeheartedly agree with you about Bojo as he is also a clown (no sarcasm intended)

Here's the problem as I see it. Certain UK media like to portray the EU as clowns, incompetent and clueless, while minimising the same behaviour from our UK politicians.

I agree Juncker has had his moments, but those moments are much fewer that BoJo's, Davis' and many of the rest of the government. The last line of the latest ad showcasing Audi technology says it the best.....


Lion in Winter Oct 16th 2017 10:49 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Garbatellamike (Post 12361907)

I think she's wasting her time with those 2 and would be better off talking to Tusk, Merkel and Macron if she wants to try and "fix it"...

She has already tried Merkel, and now Macron today apparently. Unsurprisingly, the EU wants some sort of concrete proposal from the UK, so May is now reduced to bargaining for more time, and that doesn't seem to be prospering either.

Where are Dick and Vexcore et al to tell us that the UK "holds all the cards"?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...nsition-period

Garbatellamike Oct 16th 2017 11:26 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12361964)
She has already tried Merkel, and now Macron today apparently. Unsurprisingly, the EU wants some sort of concrete proposal from the UK, so May is now reduced to bargaining for more time, and that doesn't seem to be prospering either.

Yep - I suspect she'll have to keep trying with the Rump EU Council leadership whilst nothing actually happens in the non-negotiations with the Commission other than posturing and insults.

I also note DLD's point on the Rump EU Council delegating to Barnier, which is entirely correct. I suspect May will be asking that the Rump Eu council to supply more explicit direction to their nominated negotiator - how she get's on with that only time will tell.

Lots of things are uncertain, however, one thing is clear: Juncker and Bojo are clowns :nod:

macliam Oct 16th 2017 11:39 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
Juncker is just a bureaucrat typical of European constitutional politics, no more, no less - that's why he represents Europe. Barnier actually seems to have some spirit, but no room for manouever as his gameplan has been agreed and any agreement he makes will require ratification.

Meanwhile, the government, with no visible gameplan, desperately need to get talks on something positive. Unfortunately, they agreed to the format and are now trapped by them.

I find it difficult yo see a positive outcome for either side.

Lion in Winter Oct 16th 2017 11:45 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by macliam (Post 12361991)
Juncker is just a bureaucrat typical of European constitutional politics, no more, no less - that's why he represents Europe. Barnier actually seems to have some spirit, but no room for manouever as his gameplan has been agreed and any agreement he makes will require ratification.

Meanwhile, the government, with no visible gameplan, desperately need to get talks on something positive. Unfortunately, they agreed to the format and are now trapped by them.

I find it difficult yo see a positive outcome for either side.

And the whole thing was entirely unnecessary to start off with. We are trying desperately to clean up a mess of our own making. The EU now owes us nothing at all, since the community relationship is gone, and they will protect their own. Which is how communities function. And now we look at it from the outside.

Still, blue passports eh?

DaveLovesDee Oct 16th 2017 11:45 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by macliam (Post 12361991)
I find it difficult yo see a positive outcome for either side.

I can't see much of a negative outcome for the EU, because if the UK walks away with no deal, the EU still has FTAs with 50+ countries, while the UK has none.

Garbatellamike Oct 16th 2017 12:26 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by macliam (Post 12361991)
Juncker is just a bureaucrat typical of European constitutional politics, no more, no less - that's why he represents Europe. Barnier actually seems to have some spirit, but no room for manouever as his gameplan has been agreed and any agreement he makes will require ratification.

Meanwhile, the government, with no visible gameplan, desperately need to get talks on something positive. Unfortunately, they agreed to the format and are now trapped by them.

I find it difficult yo see a positive outcome for either side.

I don't disagree with your bit on Barnier

Shard Oct 16th 2017 12:33 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
What strikes me is that there are two conflicting negotiating styles. Europe is attempting to negotiate in a modern collaborative way. Britain, so far, is treating the negotiation as a zero sum game and trying to maximise it's position by constantly threatening to walk away. It's so amateurish and risks backfiring.

Garbatellamike Oct 16th 2017 12:42 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12362040)
What strikes me is that there are two conflicting negotiating styles. Europe is attempting to negotiate in a modern collaborative way. Britain, so far, is treating the negotiation as a zero sum game and trying to maximise it's position by constantly threatening to walk away. It's so amateurish and risks backfiring.

interesting take on it.

I would say Europe is attempting to control and dominate the negotiations rather than negotiate in a collaborative fashion

Shard Oct 16th 2017 12:54 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Garbatellamike (Post 12362047)
interesting take on it.

I would say Europe is attempting to control and dominate the negotiations rather than negotiate in a collaborative fashion

Well they are not the ones leaving. And they are a group of 27 nations with differing opinions and strengths. Britain has said it's leaving and so it has to decide whether it wants a cliff edge or not. Makes sense to me.

Lion in Winter Oct 16th 2017 1:00 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12362057)
Well they are not the ones leaving. And they are a group of 27 nations with differing opinions and strengths. Britain has said it's leaving and so it has to decide whether it wants a cliff edge or not. Makes sense to me.

And 27 nations are pretty much always going to be stronger than 1 - before any negotiations even start.That was why the whole delusional "they need us more than we need them" was fraudulent from the get go. Our own government's subsequent incompetence has only exacerbated that.

GeniB Oct 16th 2017 1:07 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by jimenato (Post 12361895)
The majority voted for this utter shambles - it's their fault - never forget that.

How can we forget it:eek: We are up to our necks in their mistake. I dispute 'majority' Given what we now know about the weasel traitor Farage.The mysterious Russian influence.Trumps part in it all.Can we even trust the vote was as they say it was?

DaveLovesDee Oct 16th 2017 1:10 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Garbatellamike (Post 12362047)
I would say Europe is attempting to control and dominate the negotiations rather than negotiate in a collaborative fashion

Why would you say that? I'm asking what evidence and assumptions you've made, and how you've come to that conclusion.

scrubbedexpat0105 Oct 16th 2017 1:14 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12362001)
I can't see much of a negative outcome for the EU, because if the UK walks away with no deal, the EU still has FTAs with 50+ countries, while the UK has none.

A "no deal" scenario will have negative outcomes for the EU. The biggest are probably the loss of its second-largest financial contributor (and the resulting likely reduction in transfers to the Eastern European members, in particular, and in turn deterioration in the EU's standing among their populations), and the disruption to industrial supply chains. WTO tariffs of a few percent on BMWs aren't really the issue, particularly considering the drop in sterling since the referendum.

There's no question that a hard Brexit will be painful for the EU, although there are also positives, such as the return of European institutions and jobs "to the fold" and freedom from its most troublesome member, to name just two.

The result for the UK, however, won't be painful, or even disastrous, but absolutely cataclysmic. The UK will no doubt muddle through somehow and portray a disaster as a victory, as with Dunkirk, and for the Eton-Oxford set it will all work out – things always work out for the Eton-Oxford set. For the man in the street, or worse, in an NHS hospital bed, I think it will be Armageddon. (I hope I'm wrong.)

I would tend to agree with those who say that the EU isn't (or is no longer) negotiating, but the UK has throughout the process shown no desire whatsoever to negotiate in good faith. Its negotiating position is based upon an entirely utopian view of the situation as presented by the Mail and the Express, and having kowtowed to these rags for so long, no one in the government now dares to state the truth, which is that the EU holds almost all the cards.

I find the whole "whose court is the ball in" analogy amusing, because it isn't that the two sides can't agree where the ball is: they're not even playing the same game. The EU – partly because its room for negotiation is constrained by the need for 27 parties to agree on a position, partly because European politics is based upon consensus-building rather than confrontation and it is therefore frustrated by the absence of a consensus-oriented approach from the UK – has simply set out its final offer, take it or leave it. It's playing hardball. The UK thinks it's playing the Eton Wall Game, which it is best at and which it won in a slightly modified form at Waterloo, Crécy and Agincourt.

It doesn't bode well for the UK.

Garbatellamike Oct 16th 2017 1:17 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12362067)
Why would you say that? I'm asking what evidence and assumptions you've made, and how you've come to that conclusion.

May offered to do the rights of respective Expats quickly - EU response -No!
EU decided they would only negotiate on 3 topics and exclude trade agreement.
Barnier has said he will decide when enough progress has been made to begin talks on trade - not I will agree with DD when enough progress has been made.
The EU side have been issuing instructions and demands (as well as insults) not negotiating collaboratively imho

Those are the facts as I see them - I made no assumptions ;-)

I don't think the UK side has covered itself in glory either but to characterize the EU side as collaborative with UK and the UK as intransigent does not fit the facts. Both sides are, understandably, being intransigent at this time.

It's Vulcan Chess not ping pong :nod:


All times are GMT. The time now is 1:02 pm.

Powered by vBulletin: ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.