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Post EU Referendum

Post EU Referendum

Old Jul 5th 2017, 11:21 am
  #19381  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by GeniB View Post
Not entirely true anymore Cape Blue . We have dropped from 7th to 11th since 2014,
1' China
2,EU
3,USA
4.Eurozone countries
5,Japan
6,Germany
7,Korea
8 India
9,Italy
10,France
11, UK

10% of our GVA comes from manufacturing They make up 45% of our total exports. (no data on how much of it comprises imports from other countries in terms of parts etc) makes up only 14% of business. We have a heavy reliance on financial services rather than goods. Only 2.7 million people (out of a possible 30 million workforce ) are employed in manufacturing Industries. In a country of over 67 million people it's too tiny a proportion imo.We should be up nearer 20% with less eggs in the financial services basket. 2.7 trillion pounds earned per year might seem a lot ,but it's peanuts when set against the earnings of the 10 countries (zones) ahead of us
Your data is for manufacturing GVA whereas mine was manufacturing output. My link had us at 7th in April 2016, but I notice they have now "rebased" the data to say we are 9th.
https://www.eef.org.uk/campaigning/n...h-in-the-world

Regardless, the idea that we are not a "manufacturing economy" when we are in the top 10 world manufacturers, seems a little overstated.

Yes, it would be good for the UK to increase its manufacturing and also increase our exports. Perhaps leaving the EU will give us the impetus and opportunity to do that.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 11:27 am
  #19382  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
Never underestimate the brexiters ability to ignore basic facts and live in a post or pre brexit fantasy .
Of course 7th is irrelekevant when manufacturing us declining with fewer employed.
I suppose compared to the likes of the Central African Republic, or outer Mongolia are higher up the league.
Not many factories in your parts of London are there.
What "fact" am I ignoring?
A 2009 report from PricewaterhouseCoopers, citing data from the UK Office for National Statistics, stated that manufacturing output (gross value added at 2007 prices) has increased in 35 of the 50 years between 1958 and 2007, and output in 2007 was at record levels, approximately double that in 1958.[12]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufa...United_Kingdom

I'm not sure why you are concerned about the employment numbers - we seem to have to import millions of foreign workers as it is so there is clearly no need to be generating more employment.

Why should there be factories in London? Surely it would be better for the UK if they were in Tyneside, Liverpool, Birmingham, Cardiff etc.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 11:35 am
  #19383  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
What "fact" am I ignoring?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufa...United_Kingdom

I'm not sure why you are concerned about the employment numbers - we seem to have to import millions of foreign workers as it is so there is clearly no need to be generating more employment.

Why should there be factories in London? Surely it would be better for the UK if they were in Tyneside, Liverpool, Birmingham, Cardiff etc.
There once were many factories in London ,not that long ago , jobs replaced by the low paid service sector that you disapprove of so much.
Manufacturing pays higher wages.

The facts you keep ignoring are that in a growing economy, manufacturing is declining in importance to the UK economy.
Can you find anything later than 2007 support your argument.

Last edited by EMR; Jul 5th 2017 at 11:52 am.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 11:36 am
  #19384  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by iano View Post
While manufacturing output is currently increasing in the Eurozone, it is decreasing in the U.K.

This is well before trade barriers and duties being introduced to the mix post Brexit, potentially.

Surely this must be of concern to even the most ardent of Brexiteers ?
Sounds like being in the EU has not been good for the UK then

As it is, it appears that manufacturing is not decreasing in the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...s-figures-show
Britain’s factories enjoyed their fastest growth for three years last month on the back of strong demand at home and abroad, according to a survey that will temper worries about a Brexit-driven economic slowdown this year.

The manufacturing sector, which makes up about a tenth of the UK economy, enjoyed the strongest pick-up in new work since the start of 2014 and smashed expectations in April. Firms also took on new workers at a faster pace and ramped up production, the closely watched Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (pdf) showed.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 11:49 am
  #19385  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Sounds great!

When are you leaving?
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 12:25 pm
  #19386  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
There once were many factories in London ,not that long ago , jobs replaced by the low paid service sector that you disapprove of so much.
Manufacturing pays higher wages.

The facts you keep ignoring are that in a growing economy, manufacturing is declining in importance to the UK economy.
Can you find anything later than 2007 support your argument
.
I've just posted the Guardian in April 2016 above - the bit where it talks about fastest growth etc over past 3 years.

The question is, can you find anything at all to support your argument? So far it's all just negative supposition without a single link.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 1:09 pm
  #19387  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
I've just posted the Guardian in April 2016 above - the bit where it talks about fastest growth etc over past 3 years.

The question is, can you find anything at all to support your argument? So far it's all just negative supposition without a single link.
Has manufacturing as % of GDP increased.
Have the numbers employed in UK manufacturing increased.
Yes or No.
Not too difficult questions to answer are they ?

Your figures confirm the benefits of EU membership, almost 50% of UK vehicle manufacturing is exported to the EU because of tarrif free access.

Last edited by EMR; Jul 5th 2017 at 1:14 pm.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 1:10 pm
  #19388  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Growth in UK manufacturing output slowed in June, whereas it increased in the Eurozone. UK new order levels are diminishing, there is talk expansion has reached capacity.

Whatever way you want to slice it growth has slowed, output has slowed, so not particularly good news for a sector we are going to be increasingly reliant on.

Last edited by iano; Jul 5th 2017 at 1:21 pm.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 2:57 pm
  #19389  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

The ideology isn't doing well either.

From Brexit to Trump, on both sides of the Atlantic populism has run aground

The EU referendum and US presidential election were huge events of enduring global consequence, but they have lost some of their epic quality. Brexit and Trumpism no longer seem like giant moments for geopolitics. May’s agenda is indulged out of respect for the democracy that dictated it. America’s colossal power demands deference. But there is no longer hope that his tyrannical-toddler temperament masks some more sophisticated analysis. There is no credible plan to make America great again.

Buried too are the Brexit promises – not just extra money for the NHS, but the myth of a sovereign renaissance and taking back control. The leavers’ tone, once so expansive, has shrivelled up. It is pinched and defensive. Eurosceptics clutch the referendum mandate as proof that Brexit must be done, come what may. But they struggle to make it sound like an exciting journey. They daren’t repeat the claims that won them 52% of the vote last year.

Brexit is shrinking. The options are getting fewer. The horizon is narrowing. And the prime minister will feel it in Hamburg, where she will be welcomed as the leader of a great country that has chosen to make itself smaller.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 3:14 pm
  #19390  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Someone tell these people that the Brexit we will all have in 2019 will not be the same arrangement we will all have in 2024 and onwards.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 3:19 pm
  #19391  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by la mancha View Post
Someone tell these people that the Brexit we will all have in 2019 will not be the same arrangement we will all have in 2024 and onwards.
You are right, it will be much worse once we lose any transitional protection for our trade with the EU.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 3:31 pm
  #19392  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Why 2024? Do you turn 80 or something?

Anyway, no worries. Britain will be forced to finally figure out what it wants before this is all over. And apparently, what it thought it wanted isn't what it wants now (or at least the perception of what Brexit means has shifted in the direction of reality).

It's not the target that's moving. It's the shooter.

Ready, fire, aim.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 7:50 pm
  #19393  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
Has manufacturing as % of GDP increased.
Have the numbers employed in UK manufacturing increased.
Yes or No.
Not too difficult questions to answer are they ?

Your figures confirm the benefits of EU membership, almost 50% of UK vehicle manufacturing is exported to the EU because of tarrif free access.
Per the Guardian article

Britain’s factories enjoyed their fastest growth for three years last month on the back of strong demand at home and abroad, according to a survey that will temper worries about a Brexit-driven economic slowdown this year.

The manufacturing sector, which makes up about a tenth of the UK economy, enjoyed the strongest pick-up in new work since the start of 2014 and smashed expectations in April. Firms also took on new workers at a faster pace and ramped up production, the closely watched Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (pdf) showed.
Smashed it!

Per before, if we create more employment we will only need to import more immigrants to do the work, into our already overcrowded country (as evidence by high accommodation costs).
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 8:37 pm
  #19394  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Per the Guardian article

Smashed it!

Per before, if we create more employment we will only need to import more immigrants to do the work, into our already overcrowded country (as evidence by high accommodation costs).
Answer the question, why as a % of GDP has UK manufacturing declined along with numbers employed.
Latest figures show a continuing fall in UK productivity.

The only thing thing that is smashed is the bubble you seem to exist in.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 8:59 pm
  #19395  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
There once were many factories in London ,not that long ago , jobs replaced by the low paid service sector that you disapprove of so much.
Manufacturing pays higher wages.

The facts you keep ignoring are that in a growing economy, manufacturing is declining in importance to the UK economy.
Can you find anything later than 2007 support your argument.
I have just given him the stats for June 2017 EMR ..Not current enough apparently
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