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Post EU Referendum

Post EU Referendum

Old Jul 4th 2017, 11:39 pm
  #19366  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
OK here's another one. And, you don't have a monopoly on spin.. I too can pick out the stuff I want to hear and paint the entire picture that way.

I also can fabricate a premise and then prove the premise wrong. But that's your thing. I'll let you have the glory.

Euro-Area Unemployment Holds at 8-Year Low as Recovery Proceeds

(Bloomberg) -- The euro-area’s unemployment rate held at its lowest since March 2009 last month, adding to evidence that the regional recovery is solidifying.

The rate in the 19-country bloc remained at 9.3 percent in May, unchanged from April, the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Monday. The reading is in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
So double that of the Uk and they call it a recovery.

Would be even more if so many hadn't been given jobs in the uk.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 7:02 am
  #19367  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly View Post
Little wonder the whole sorry mess is collapsing and several member states
are already doing things their own way.
No sign of collapse from this angle.

And so far, only one member state has decided that it wants to do things its own way - and is currently arguing tooth and nail about what that way is. Even the party supposedly in control is falling apart and the talks have hardly started. Give it 3 months and there'll be open rebellion by Tory MPs in Parliament voting against their own leader.

Now that's what I call a sorry mess.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 7:09 am
  #19368  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
We are a reasonable manufacturing economy - last I saw was 7th in the world.
https://www.eef.org.uk/campaigning/n...h-in-the-world

For our manufactured exports, the fact that some commodity imports will be more expensive is immaterial, the imported commodities will represent circa 20% of the cost of a product so the remaining 80% of direct labour, domestic costs, value-add etc is still in sterling and will make our exports cheaper.

Tariffs may indeed offset any currency advantage for our exports to the EU (but one would assume any tariffs to non-EU would remain the same), our negotiators jobs is to ensure these are as small as possible, but the average tariff applied by WTO members is 9% - somewhat less than the sterling to euro Fx change. With the euro strengthening, this will continue to be helped.
Being 7th in the world is irrelevant, it's the declining % of GDP and numbers employed that count as far as the UK is concerned.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 7:28 am
  #19369  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

BRITAIN TO GROW FASTER THAN GERMANY, FRANCE AND THE EU according to
Oxford Economics who say Great Britain will outperform Germany and France over the next 5 years.

So much for the "economic disaster of Brexit" as "forecast" by Remainers.

British growth will be 1.8% a year; Germany's will be 1.3%; and France's will be 1.4%. The EU as a whole, if it survives, will be 1.5%

These percentages do not seem so much. But in money, not percentage terms, the growth difference is a lot of money.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 7:31 am
  #19370  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly View Post
BRITAIN TO GROW FASTER THAN GERMANY, FRANCE AND THE EU according to
Oxford Economics who say Great Britain will outperform Germany and France over the next 5 years.

So much for the "economic disaster of Brexit" as "forecast" by Remainers.

British growth will be 1.8% a year; Germany's will be 1.3%; and France's will be 1.4%. The EU as a whole, if it survives, will be 1.5%

These percentages do not seem so much. But in money, not percentage terms, the growth difference is a lot of money.
When was this ?
Which paper did you read it in ?
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 7:54 am
  #19371  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly View Post
So double that of the Uk and they call it a recovery.

Would be even more if so many hadn't been given jobs in the uk.
I don't know why you insist on mis-reading data Dick...(oh well of course I do..anything to fit the false picture you insist is Europe)


The respected journalist Valentina Romei published an in depth report for the Financial Times in June 2017

Some extracts for you

'Over the last 12 months the outlook for the EU has brightened in a dramatic fashion'

'A year ago after the UK's June 2016 vote to leave the bloc economists were cutting their forecasts for EU growth.Campaigners for Bexit proclaimed that if the UK had stuck with the bloc it would be 'shackled to a corpse'

These seem to be the words and predictions you have preferred to stick with

HOWEVER
She goes on to say ...'.BUT..2017 has been very different,marked by the recovery in the eurozone,which in the first quarter grew TWICE AS FAST AS THE USA

'All 28 EU economies grew,the first time that has happened since the financial crisis .Market expansion grew by 5% in all countries ,except Finland and the UK',
'This improved performance is also leaving it's mark in countries worst hit by the crisis. Spain and Greece suffered extraordinary levels of unemployment with a quarter of the population without a job .50% youth unemployment .That figure has been steadily and consistently shrinking since'

'The improvement in the performance of central and eastern Europe has been more marked'
Concerns about immigration from the EU -particularly from former communist states-played a big role in securing the vote to leave the bloc in last year's British referendum . At present ,most work permit applications to the UK come from Romania and Poland ,followed by Italy,Spain and Bulgaria'

HOWEVER...'If the UK had not embarked on Brexit ,the levels might have fallen naturally .The income gap between the UK and central and eastern Europe is narrowing ,making their domestic labour market much more attractive than before'
'Romania was the fastest growing EU country for the first quarter .All 11 former communist bloc EU countries grew faster than the EU average,EASILY OUTSTRIPPING THE UK'.Wages grew at an annual rate of 4% in most eastern european countries in the first quarter of 2017 ,a record 17% in Romania. compared with only 1.6 % in the EU as a whole and less than 1.4 % in the UK


This is a huge in-depth report ,with( 'graphs and everything' ) Dick so I won't continue to quote it here (can't print it on the forum apologies for that ) and I therefore don't expect you to read it.
You may surprise us though by going and looking it up....stranger things have happened

Oh and PS... Dick, your Oxford Profs .. They are 'predicting' Just like they did for Brexit... The above report is actual real tangible fact

Last edited by GeniB; Jul 5th 2017 at 8:03 am.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 7:55 am
  #19372  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
We are not a manufacturing economy.
Our manufacturing such as it is relies on imported commodities which have risen due to the fall in sterling.
This is happening now, started the day after the vote.
In addition the possibility of tariffs will more than offset ny notional currency advantage.

The UK remains a major trading nation with some major manufacturing exports still.

As far as tariffs offsetting decline in the currency good point. Plus weaker pound may help exports, but drive up inflation and interest rates, erasing reductions in the annual deficit from austerity these past years.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 8:07 am
  #19373  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

[QUOTE=morpeth;12287173]The UK remains a major trading nation with some major manufacturing exports still.

As far as tariffs offsetting decline in the currency good point. Plus weaker pound may help exports, but drive up inflation and interest rates, erasing reductions in the annual deficit from austerity these past years.[/QUOTE

I did not say that the UK was not a major trading nation but that the brexit belief that manufactured exports will offset any negatives of brexit is a false premise.
I for one would love to see our manufacturing as a % OF GDP, numbers employed in manufacturing increase.
But it is unlikely to happen.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 8:19 am
  #19374  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

[QUOTE=EMR;12287183]
Originally Posted by morpeth View Post
The UK remains a major trading nation with some major manufacturing exports still.

As far as tariffs offsetting decline in the currency good point. Plus weaker pound may help exports, but drive up inflation and interest rates, erasing reductions in the annual deficit from austerity these past years.[/QUOTE

I did not say that the UK was not a major trading nation but that the brexit belief that manufactured exports will offset any negatives of brexit is a false premise.
I for one would love to see our manufacturing as a % OF GDP, numbers employed in manufacturing increase.
But it is unlikely to happen.
The manufacturing capabilities of the UK has been the thing that has annoyed me the most about the UK's decision to leave the trading bloc.

In fact the total neglect by the government to enter into any meaningful and 'public' discussions with the business world in the UK. The 'engine' that is supposed to drive this ship forward into it's unchartered waters has been woeful and it seems to me deliberately ignored.

Fact is we haven't a clue about the strength of our ability to manufacture enough saleable goods or services to a wider world than our previous partners . We are in the dark as to exactly what that is,what proportion of those creating goods are immigrants (i.e. therefore likely to leave or not be replaced) It's been a frightening fudge of emotional rhetoric that I fear covers up a gigantic reality gap
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 8:33 am
  #19375  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
Being 7th in the world is irrelevant, it's the declining % of GDP and numbers employed that count as far as the UK is concerned.


Statement: "We are not a manufacturing economy."

Reply: "We are 7th in the world"

Response: "Being 7th in the world is irrelevant"

Never underestimate the continual anti-Brit negativity of an extreme remainer.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 9:05 am
  #19376  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post


Statement: "We are not a manufacturing economy."

Reply: "We are 7th in the world"

Response: "Being 7th in the world is irrelevant"

Never underestimate the continual anti-Brit negativity of an extreme remainer.
Not entirely true anymore Cape Blue . We have dropped from 7th to 11th since 2014,
1' China
2,EU
3,USA
4.Eurozone countries
5,Japan
6,Germany
7,Korea
8 India
9,Italy
10,France
11, UK

10% of our GVA comes from manufacturing They make up 45% of our total exports. (no data on how much of it comprises imports from other countries in terms of parts etc) makes up only 14% of business. We have a heavy reliance on financial services rather than goods. Only 2.7 million people (out of a possible 30 million workforce ) are employed in manufacturing Industries. In a country of over 67 million people it's too tiny a proportion imo.We should be up nearer 20% with less eggs in the financial services basket. 2.7 trillion pounds earned per year might seem a lot ,but it's peanuts when set against the earnings of the 10 countries (zones) ahead of us
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 9:12 am
  #19377  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by GeniB View Post
Not entirely true anymore Cape Blue . We have dropped from 7th to 11th since 2014,
1' China
2,EU
3,USA
4.Eurozone countries
5,Japan
6,Germany
7,Korea
8 India
9,Italy
10,France
11, UK

10% of our GVA comes from manufacturing They make up 45% of our total exports. (no data on how much of it comprises imports from other countries in terms of parts etc) makes up only 14% of business. We have a heavy reliance on financial services rather than goods. Only 2.7 million people (out of a possible 30 million workforce ) are employed in manufacturing Industries. In a country of over 67 million people it's too tiny a proportion imo.We should be up nearer 20% with less eggs in the financial services basket. 2.7 trillion pounds earned per year might seem a lot ,but it's peanuts when set against the earnings of the 10 countries (zones) ahead of us
Curious, why do the EU come second, Eurozone Countries get fourth spot and then Germany, Italy and France come in at 6, 9 and 10 respectively?
Any double counting going on?
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 9:18 am
  #19378  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

While manufacturing output is currently increasing in the Eurozone, it is decreasing in the U.K.

This is well before trade barriers and duties being introduced to the mix post Brexit, potentially.

Surely this must be of concern to even the most ardent of Brexiteers ?

Last edited by iano; Jul 5th 2017 at 9:21 am.
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 9:23 am
  #19379  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Golden Years View Post
Curious, why do the EU come second, Eurozone Countries get fourth spot and then Germany, Italy and France come in at 6, 9 and 10 respectively?
Any double counting going on?
I think it's the way they like to present the difference between the 'Zones' and the individual countries performances . The EU and the Eurozone perhaps shouldn't have a number..but their 'collective' output and strength in the world has to be put in the figures. It shows that together they are the largest and strongest trading group in the world...Helps economists anyway
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Old Jul 5th 2017, 9:59 am
  #19380  
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Default Re: Post EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post


Statement: "We are not a manufacturing economy."

Reply: "We are 7th in the world"

Response: "Being 7th in the world is irrelevant"

Never underestimate the continual anti-Brit negativity of an extreme remainer.
Never underestimate the brexiters ability to ignore basic facts and live in a post or pre brexit fantasy .
Of course 7th is irrelekevant when manufacturing us declining with fewer employed.
I suppose compared to the likes of the Central African Republic, or outer Mongolia are higher up the league.
Not many factories in your parts of London are there.
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