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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

Annetje Jul 4th 2017 4:40 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12286722)
From your link:

Official figures show that unemployment across the 19-country eurozone remained at an eight-year low in May.

Eurostat said Monday that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.3 percent. That's the lowest since March 2009, when unemployment was rising markedly following the global financial crisis.

Over the month, the statistics agency said the number of people out of work fell by a modest 5,000 to 15.03 million.

Not exactly a time for high-fives all round, is it? This is not a significant drop, and remember this is the summer season when unemployment usually drops dramatically.

I am surprised you posted this link.

Don't all the graduated students join the unemployment crowd in July ?

EMR Jul 4th 2017 5:57 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12286722)
From your link:

Official figures show that unemployment across the 19-country eurozone remained at an eight-year low in May.

Eurostat said Monday that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.3 percent. That's the lowest since March 2009, when unemployment was rising markedly following the global financial crisis.

Over the month, the statistics agency said the number of people out of work fell by a modest 5,000 to 15.03 million.

Not exactly a time for high-fives all round, is it? This is not a significant drop, and remember this is the summer season when unemployment usually drops dramatically.

I am surprised you posted this link.

I am surprised you seem to have forgotten how long it took the UK to come down from 3 million unemployed.
How you seem to have forgotten the massive QE and currency devaluation carried out by the UK.
The error the Eurozone made was it not following the UK .

EMR Jul 4th 2017 6:13 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12286683)
They exported their unemployed to wash cars and pick cabbages in the UK ;)

You are right of course, the street corners in the UK are full of Brits desperate to wash cars and pick cabbages.

amideislas Jul 4th 2017 6:14 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12286722)
From your link:

Official figures show that unemployment across the 19-country eurozone remained at an eight-year low in May.

Eurostat said Monday that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.3 percent. That's the lowest since March 2009, when unemployment was rising markedly following the global financial crisis.

Over the month, the statistics agency said the number of people out of work fell by a modest 5,000 to 15.03 million.

Not exactly a time for high-fives all round, is it? This is not a significant drop, and remember this is the summer season when unemployment usually drops dramatically.

I am surprised you posted this link.

OK here's another one. And, you don't have a monopoly on spin.. I too can pick out the stuff I want to hear and paint the entire picture that way.

I also can fabricate a premise and then prove the premise wrong. But that's your thing. I'll let you have the glory.

Euro-Area Unemployment Holds at 8-Year Low as Recovery Proceeds

(Bloomberg) -- The euro-area’s unemployment rate held at its lowest since March 2009 last month, adding to evidence that the regional recovery is solidifying.

The rate in the 19-country bloc remained at 9.3 percent in May, unchanged from April, the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Monday. The reading is in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

EMR Jul 4th 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12286619)
I was quoting the link provided by iano to say how badly the UK was doing.

The link used a start date of end 2014 for the euro. As can be seen, picking your start and finish dates can make a big difference to ones argument.

XE: EUR / USD Currency Chart. Euro to US Dollar Rates

Odd when any one points out the devaluation of sterling and it's impact on the economy, those on your side of the argument suggest that it does not matter.

morpeth Jul 4th 2017 7:30 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Golden Years (Post 12286039)
I don't understand your argument.
The UK's position in the world post Brexit will be as an independent nation, being at liberty to trade with anybody and everybody.
The terms of that trade will be, at best, on a free trade basis and, at worst, under the WTO terms. In all likelihood the reality will be somewhere in between.
The only way the EU can influence UK trade agreements with third countries is if the UK was still part of the Customs Union, which is the reason for wanting to leave it.
A number of countries have indicated that they could quickly put a trade agreement in place and those hypothetical discussions will continue.

The EU certainly will seek to influence or compete with UK if any future trade agreements effects its competitiveness.

I also doubt the UK government is publicly disclosing all of its negotiating strategy with the EU.

Cape Blue Jul 4th 2017 8:46 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12286785)
You are right of course, the street corners in the UK are full of Brits desperate to wash cars and pick cabbages.

Not at the suppressed pay rates driven by the expansion of the UK's reserve pool of labour to include all the EU, no.

Cape Blue Jul 4th 2017 8:48 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12286794)
Odd when any one points out the devaluation of sterling and it's impact on the economy, those on your side of the argument suggest that it does not matter.

I don't understand what you are trying to say - the IMF and bank of England said prior to the referendum that sterling was up to 20% overvalued. This article mentions the benefits accrued by euro-countries from the substantial deflation of the euro in 2014.

EMR Jul 4th 2017 8:54 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12286903)
I don't understand what you are trying to say - the IMF and bank of England said prior to the referendum that sterling was up to 20% overvalued. This article mentions the benefits accrued by euro-countries from the substantial deflation of the euro in 2014.

The same BOE that warned about the inflationary effects of the fall in sterling following the brexit vote, proven.
The rise in input costs for UK manufacturing, proven.
Of course for the simple minded the fall in sterling due to the vote and its effdcts on the UK economy are not related.
But then they are simple minded.

Cape Blue Jul 4th 2017 9:34 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12286906)
The same BOE that warned about the inflationary effects of the fall in sterling following the brexit vote, proven.
The rise in input costs for UK manufacturing, proven.
Of course for the simple minded the fall in sterling due to the vote and its effdcts on the UK economy are not related.
But then they are simple minded.

Yes, the effect on the UK economy will doubtless be positive or why else would the IMF be calling-out that it was over-valued.

Exports will start to boom now that our currency isn't overvalued - just like Germany who has benefited by the billions for being tied into the euro - if they were still the DM it would have appreciated heavily, making their exports less attractive.

EMR Jul 4th 2017 9:40 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12286938)
Yes, the effect on the UK economy will doubtless be positive or why else would the IMF be calling-out that it was over-valued.

Exports will start to boom now that our currency isn't overvalued - just like Germany who has benefited by the billions for being tied into the euro - if they were still the DM it would have appreciated heavily, making their exports less attractive.

We are not a manufacturing economy.
Our manufacturing such as it is relies on imported commodities which have risen due to the fall in sterling.
This is happening now, started the day after the vote.
In addition the possibility of tariffs will more than offset ny notional currency advantage.

Cape Blue Jul 4th 2017 9:54 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12286942)
We are not a manufacturing economy.
Our manufacturing such as it is relies on imported commodities which have risen due to the fall in sterling.
This is happening now, started the day after the vote.
In addition the possibility of tariffs will more than offset ny notional currency advantage.

We are a reasonable manufacturing economy - last I saw was 7th in the world.
https://www.eef.org.uk/campaigning/n...h-in-the-world

For our manufactured exports, the fact that some commodity imports will be more expensive is immaterial, the imported commodities will represent circa 20% of the cost of a product so the remaining 80% of direct labour, domestic costs, value-add etc is still in sterling and will make our exports cheaper.

Tariffs may indeed offset any currency advantage for our exports to the EU (but one would assume any tariffs to non-EU would remain the same), our negotiators jobs is to ensure these are as small as possible, but the average tariff applied by WTO members is 9% - somewhat less than the sterling to euro Fx change. With the euro strengthening, this will continue to be helped.

amideislas Jul 4th 2017 10:11 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
All that's great!

So, leave already, so Europe can move on.

DaveLovesDee Jul 4th 2017 10:40 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12286360)
1) Brexit is happening, increased trade/FTA with non-EU countries will be essential. Why not discuss it?

Nobody said it wasn't happening. And I thought we were discussing it?

Yes, increased trade/FTAs with non-EU countries will be essential. But we already have a large number of FTAs already, and more are in negotiations of one degree or another. Instead, we're starting from zero again.

Dick Dasterdly Jul 4th 2017 11:28 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40492396

What an absolute shambles.
Junckers spits his dummy,.... again
The Eu sham of a so called Parliament has been at war with the Commission as long as I can remember.

Nothing changes, except the situation continues to deteriorate and cause even further embarrassment for all concerned.
Just as well hardly anybody turned up, I'm sure they had better things to do
than witness yet another childish squabble and to think these are the people
who are supposed to be running the show.

Little wonder the whole sorry mess is collapsing and several member states
are already doing things their own way.


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