British Expats

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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

amideislas May 9th 2017 2:58 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12248661)
Agree with what you say India alone can't "save" Britain, but will be very useful. (Someone has to point out that there is a world outside of the EU and your posts are a bit 'mallet/nail'. :lol:)

UK car exports to India grow 11-fold in 7 years, Jaguar Land Rover tops list | autos | Hindustan Times

Brexit Effects: Rolls-Royce, Aston Martin Have Cut Prices In India By More Than Rs 1 Crore - Indiatimes.com

Thanks for that distinction, but I'm afraid you've avoided the point. The EU currently trades with "the world" to a degree and on terms that post-brexit Britain will only be able to wish for for at least a decade, if not a generation. In the mean time, there's going to be some some pretty pissed off voters. 2022 will be very interesting. But we have plenty of time to watch it all unfold.

Bipat May 9th 2017 3:29 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12248701)
You are referring to top of the range luxury products for the elite.
The elite who can afford the huge tarrifs on vehicle imports.
Nothing wrong with that but they represent but a fraction of UK vehicle exports and do not even register at 4000 vehicles in the overall size of the Indian auto market.
What will happen to UK exports when tata factories built in lower cost countries start to export ?

You are the one who keeps saying there is no market for luxury goods!
If you are only considering the elite and very rich, say 2% of the population that is a market of 30,000,000 people.
Also the middle classes are buying more and more luxury and other imported goods. Overall population twice that of the EU and it is a young population
Time doesn't stand still EMR, we are talking of the future,

EMR May 9th 2017 3:35 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12248741)
You are the one who keeps saying there is no market for luxury goods!
If you are only considering the elite and very rich, say 2% of the population that is a market of 30,000,000 people.
Also the middle classes are buying more and more luxury and other imported goods. Overall population twice that of the EU and it is a young population
Time doesn't stand still EMR, we are talking of the future,

There is always a market for luxury goods but that does not help the volume producers looking for export markets does it.
The middle classes will have to see astronomic increases in their incomes to be able to afford the luxury vehicles you refer to.
When volume production comes on stream from lower cost Tata factories what will happen then to the UK.
As you say Time does not stand still.
Remember a British brand no longer guarantees " made in the UK " that is what should be your priority, it is mine when I get the chance, increasingly harder to find these days.

amideislas May 9th 2017 3:40 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
Well then. I reckon they'll be lining up to buy the latest Rolls. You figure we can sell a few trillion dollars worth?

Happy days!

Golden Years May 9th 2017 3:43 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12248710)
Thanks for that distinction, but I'm afraid you've avoided the point. The EU currently trades with "the world" to a degree and on terms that post-brexit Britain will only be able to wish for for at least a decade, if not a generation. In the mean time, there's going to be some some pretty pissed off voters. 2022 will be very interesting. But we have plenty of time to watch it all unfold.

Doesn't the EU trade with most of "the world" without an agreement, just using WTO rules?
This includes the USA, China, India, Japan, the Gulf States, Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Morocco, Tunisia, Australia and New Zealand.
After Brexit wouldn't that mean that the UK would continue to trade with these countries on exactly the same basis as we do now?
Free trade agreements are much easier to negotiate on a one to one basis than on a more than 27 to one basis as the EU has to do. Remember the EU/Canadian FTA being delayed by the concerns from the Belgian region of Wallonia?

DaveLovesDee May 9th 2017 3:48 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Golden Years (Post 12248768)
Remember the EU/Canadian FTA being delayed by the concerns from the Belgian region of Wallonia?

1. That was down to Belgian Parliamentary rules.

2. They were valid concerns, and were addressed. Democratic sovereignty in action.

morpeth May 9th 2017 3:50 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
[QUOTE=Bipat;12248615]

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12248589)

As I have explained the economy is changing all the time. With the EU negotiations there were problems on both sides and failure. As I said the EU have sent trade delegations three times this year. So far no news of reopening talks.
Not sure what you mean by "other such countries". Not going to explain again the difference. It is all in the other (segregated/apartheid:lol: thread).

I meant other countries simply countries outside the EU. Will future trade agreements between the UK and non-EU countries have the potential to make up for any declines the UK will probably suffer over time in its trade with the EU.

Golden Years May 9th 2017 4:01 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12248773)
1. That was down to Belgian Parliamentary rules.

2. They were valid concerns, and were addressed. Democratic sovereignty in action.

Quite agree.
But it reinforces the point that the UK can negotiate on its own far faster than the EU because the latter is so structurally unwieldy.

EMR May 9th 2017 4:03 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Golden Years (Post 12248768)
Doesn't the EU trade with most of "the world" without an agreement, just using WTO rules?
This includes the USA, China, India, Japan, the Gulf States, Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Morocco, Tunisia, Australia and New Zealand.
After Brexit wouldn't that mean that the UK would continue to trade with these countries on exactly the same basis as we do now?
Free trade agreements are much easier to negotiate on a one to one basis than on a more than 27 to one basis as the EU has to do. Remember the EU/Canadian FTA being delayed by the concerns from the Belgian region of Wallonia?

We already trade with those countries.
There is nothing to stop us.
Where brexiters get this idea that being a member of the EU blocks our ability to sell outside of the EU who knows.
We already export over 50% outside of the EU.
They seem to have forgotten that you have to have what they want to buy

Golden Years May 9th 2017 4:11 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12248791)
We already trade with those countries.
There is nothing to stop us.
Where brexiters get this idea that being a member of the EU blocks our ability to sell outside of the EU who knows.
We already export over 50% outside of the EU.
They seem to have forgotten that you have to have what they want to buy

You are missing the point.
The list was in response to the comment;

Originally Posted by amideislas
Thanks for that distinction, but I'm afraid you've avoided the point. The EU currently trades with "the world" to a degree and on terms that post-brexit Britain will only be able to wish for for at least a decade, if not a generation. In the mean time, there's going to be some some pretty pissed off voters. 2022 will be very interesting. But we have plenty of time to watch it all unfold.
I was merely showing that the UK will have the same terms with large parts of "the world" as we do now.

EMR May 9th 2017 4:17 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Golden Years (Post 12248803)
You are missing the point.
The list was in response to the comment;


I was merely showing that the UK will have the same terms with large parts of "the world" as we do now.

Exactly ,little or no advantage after Brexit apart from risking our biggest market, the EU.

amideislas May 9th 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Golden Years (Post 12248768)
Doesn't the EU trade with most of "the world" without an agreement, just using WTO rules?
This includes the USA, China, India, Japan, the Gulf States, Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Morocco, Tunisia, Australia and New Zealand.
After Brexit wouldn't that mean that the UK would continue to trade with these countries on exactly the same basis as we do now?
Free trade agreements are much easier to negotiate on a one to one basis than on a more than 27 to one basis as the EU has to do. Remember the EU/Canadian FTA being delayed by the concerns from the Belgian region of Wallonia?

There are currently active trade agreements between EU members and about 50 countries and trade blocs. Britain currently trades with them under these agreements, all of which define better terms than standard WTO arrangements.

No worries though, England is going to shatter all records and renegotiate every one of them in a few years. With few resources and from a position of weakness and desperation.

Bipat May 9th 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12248749)
There is always a market for luxury goods but that does not help the volume producers looking for export markets does it.
The middle classes will have to see astronomic increases in their incomes to be able to afford the luxury vehicles you refer to.
When volume production comes on stream from lower cost Tata factories what will happen then to the UK.
As you say Time does not stand still.
Remember a British brand no longer guarantees " made in the UK " that is what should be your priority, it is mine when I get the chance, increasingly harder to find these days.

As I said, the elite and very rich--- 30,000,000!
The middle classes can afford Land Rovers, particularly farmers. Large 4X4, 6+ seater vehicles increasingly popular (unfortunately) road traffic increasing at an alarming rate.

Bipat May 9th 2017 4:21 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12248791)
We already trade with those countries.
There is nothing to stop us.
Where brexiters get this idea that being a member of the EU blocks our ability to sell outside of the EU who knows.
We already export over 50% outside of the EU.
They seem to have forgotten that you have to have what they want to buy

UK trades under EU rules as you know.

DaveLovesDee May 9th 2017 4:21 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Golden Years (Post 12248789)
Quite agree.
But it reinforces the point that the UK can negotiate on its own far faster than the EU because the latter is so structurally unwieldy.

I presume you also mean because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland won't get a say in any negotiations. So any valid concerns they have will be ignored.

So much for democracy in the UK. The EU is more democratic than the UK, it appears (and my signature link shows).


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