British Expats

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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

Bipat Aug 19th 2016 10:45 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Red Eric (Post 12030043)
The rise in recruitment of EU nationals to the NHS is almost entirely due to the difficulties created by the government with regard to recruitment of non-EU nationals. In other words, nothing that will be resolved by putting those same barriers in the way of recruiting EU nationals.

The issue of language testing has been covered before and in fact there is nothing (and never was anything) preventing appropriate language testing in any profession as part of the recruitment and selection process.

If the government wishes to keep the overall number of migrants to a reasonable level, and for EU migrants there is free movement, it is obvious the main restrictions will be on non-EU migrants. Why do you think there should not be equality for entry requirements?

Lion in Winter Aug 19th 2016 10:55 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick D[RIGHT
[/RIGHT]asterdly;12030045]EU doctors three times more likely to face disciplinary action for poor English than other foreign medics�

Shocking state of affairs.
EU doctors only require basic language skills due to EU regulations.

"Under rules which came into force in 2014 doctors applying to the NHS from Europe only need to score 7.5 on the International English Language Testing System, which equates to basic conversational skills."

4 whole doctors from the EU, vs 11 whole doctors from outside the EU, restricted due to English problems. Might I suggest the country has more pressing issues to solve?


Presumably, also, nobody is obliged to hire any of these doctors? The right to seek work does not mean that British hospitals are forced to hire them, I assume?


My brother-in-law had his life saved by an EU doctor in the UK two years ago, coincidentally.

amideislas Aug 19th 2016 11:06 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Red Eric (Post 12029988)
As usual, I am completely at odds with your assessment. What I recall is that every warning of possible negative outcomes, instead of being treated as plausible and worthy of consideration, was greeted by Leavers with accusations of "Project Fear", that it was threats and lies and that it was predicting "Armageddon" - all of which, it now seems, the Leavers took to mean wouldn't happen at all if it didn't happen the instant the referendum result was announced.

Most of the Remainer posters on the various threads here on BE pointed out on numerous occasions that what was being talked about was likely to manifest itself over a period of years and would depend anyway on to what extent Brexit "means Brexit". Leavers were presumably always too busy avoiding the question of what that meant exactly or banging on about aspects of immigration and asylum which have nothing to do with EU membership (as they will be finding out in due course) to be bothered reading those comments.

I'm certainly not expecting anything to change too drastically until after Article 50 has been triggered at the very earliest, so no Armageddon the instant it's been announced. In fact no Armageddon at all - just a long period of uncertainty and loss of confidence which I think will adversely affect the UK economy. And I don't expect the negotiations with the EU about the terms of the exit to be quick or easy - I think they'll drag on considerably longer than the 2 years initially provided for in the legislation and there'll be plenty of brinksmanship and "deadlines" set and broken. And I'm sure there'll be plenty of opportunity for criticism of the way the EU conducts itself along the way.

I came across this the other day about the complexity of what lies ahead - I thought it an interesting summary https://www.theguardian.com/business...g-back-control


Voice of reason, Eric.

There is a natural, nationalistic desire to be optimistic and believe all is going to be just fine, that our nation can only prosper in its glory.

However, there is the same basic reality that has to be considered: The basic fact remains that Britain's key attraction in the global economy is that it is the front door to a market of nearly 500 million consumers, with a GDP of $16 trillion. A vast amount of the trade with that market is conducted through Britain (and subsequently taxed by Britain). And without that, Britain is a market of 65 million consumers, with a service-based (tax-based) GDP of just under $3 trillion, and a significant portion of that generated through global trade with Europe. This is just reality.

OK, so now that the UK has voted to "leave" all that behind, the big question is where to go from here, and how to protect the UK economy as much as possible in that process. The risks of course, are blatantly obvious.

There are a plethora of theories floating about, but they all fall into a few categories:

1) Hard Brexit.
Cut all ties, and float the ship alone in the Atlantic. We try to make the best of our newfound economic value proposition, by negotiating "trade agreements" with major markets; The US, ASEAN, India, China, etc. On the basis of those agreements, we open up vast amounts of trade. Of course, being a service based economy with few exports or natural resources, IMPORTS will be the overwhelming majority of trade conducted under such agreements. The 65 million British consumers that Britain now represents is indeed of interest to some. The question is, how does Britain generate equal or greater inflows of money than outflows of money? Trade imbalance will be starkly on the side of imports. Plausible answers to this question are elusive at best. Plus, there is a monumentally huge task of detangling UK law from EU law. This could require a decade and cost hundreds of billions of pounds to redefine in a post-Brexit world.

2) Negotiate a "Free trade agreement" with the EU as part of brexit "negotiations".
This has some merit, however, the devil is in the details. The devil of course is that the common market, for better or for worse, for richer or poorer, has a common set of principles on which it is founded, known as the "four pillars". You can argue whether that's good, bad, stupid, brilliant, or whatever you want, but that's beside the point; These are the founding principles of the common market, and they simply aren't going to change. Especially not for Britain. And therefore, if Britain aspires to continue as the preferred front door to that market, it will need to abide by those principles. And any "free trade agreement" that does not include those four pillars, would have the same conditions illustrated in the previous option: Balance of trade would heavily favour the EU, not Britain. Which brings us to the next common theory.

3) EEA membership
Probably the most likely outcome. For the sake of brevity, I will presume you know what the EEA is, but will only sum it up: More or less the same as full EU membership, but without any influence over the rules from within the EU. This option has the benefit of not only maintaining full unfettered access to the common market as it does today (enabling Britain to retain its position as the preferred global gateway to the market), but also eliminates the need for the astronomical task of detangling UK law from EU law. The drawback, of course, is that it's more or less what the UK already has as a full EU member (minus having any say in the EU), and that's what voters chose to leave.

4) Article 50 never invoked, UK remains full member of the EU.
This theory is also floated frequently. Although politically, this would be extremely risky to the current government. But because none of the above options can possibly be completed in less than 3-4 years (optimistically) and the fact that the electorate has short memories, and sentiments can change dramatically in just a few years' time, this is actually a plausible outcome, although less likely. Lots of political risk. Politicians are terrified of things like this. Although I suppose that depends on what side of politics street those politicians reside. Some may see brexit as a powerful political weapon in their "opposition" aspirations. Some already do.

Bipat Aug 19th 2016 11:11 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12030048)
4 whole doctors from the EU, vs 11 whole doctors from outside the EU, restricted due to English problems. Might I suggest the country has more pressing issues to solve?

My brother-in-law had his life saved by an EU doctor in the UK two years ago, coincidentally.

Nobody is suggesting that NHS staff should not be recruited from the EU, but that the admission from EU and non-EU should be on an equal basis.
Why not?

There are far more non--EU doctors than EU in the NHS at the present time because of large scale recruitment when the NHS was set up.
Medicine in some non-EU countries is taught in English and their medical text books in English.

Lion in Winter Aug 19th 2016 11:17 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12030053)
Nobody is suggesting that NHS staff should not be recruited from the EU, but that the admission from EU and non-EU should be on an equal basis.
Why not?

There are far more non--EU doctors than EU in the NHS at the present time because of large scale recruitment when the NHS was set up.
Medicine in some non-EU countries is taught in English and their medical text books in English.

If you want more non-EU doctors then ask our government to let them in. Is there a cap on doctors? Is there not still a shortage? Fewer EU doctors will not automatically result in more non-EU doctors to my knowledge.

Dick Dasterdly Aug 19th 2016 12:02 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12030058)
If you want more non-EU doctors then ask our government to let them in. Is there a cap on doctors? Is there not still a shortage? Fewer EU doctors will not automatically result in more non-EU doctors to my knowledge.

The restriction on non Eu doctors was due to Cameron's policies when he placed a limit of the overall number of non Europe workers coming into the country, due to the excessive numbers arriving from the EU.

I do not believe the current Govt will do likewise, most especially once Eu immigration is under control.

Dick Dasterdly Aug 19th 2016 12:04 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Brexit boom: The five charts which show Britain has escaped an economic apocalypse

Apocalypse ?

What Apocalypse ?

:confused:

amideislas Aug 19th 2016 12:30 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Again, Dick, let's see what happens if the UK leaves the EU.

DaveLovesDee Aug 19th 2016 12:38 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12030082)

What f-ing Brexit?

Nothing's happened yet.

Lion in Winter Aug 19th 2016 12:48 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12030080)
The restriction on non Eu doctors was due to Cameron's policies when he placed a limit of the overall number of non Europe workers coming into the country, due to the excessive numbers arriving from the EU.

Are you sure about that?

Nurses were made exempt from the income requirements, and I'm willing to bet that doctors make over 35k. Don't you think?

Also, even the government stated that the new requirements would make little difference to the number of new immigrants to the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...ns-australians

Lion in Winter Aug 19th 2016 12:49 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12030094)
What f-ing Brexit?

Nothing's happened yet.

Well I got a very good exchange rate when changing dollars to sterling for my recent trip...

SultanOfSwing Aug 19th 2016 1:07 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12030094)
What f-ing Brexit?

Nothing's happened yet.

They do love their dead horses, don't they?


Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12030099)
Well I got a very good exchange rate when changing dollars to sterling for my recent trip...

Not so great going the other way. Oh well, I managed to get my money when it was still in the $1.30s so **** it, it can go 1:1 now for all I care.

Lion in Winter Aug 19th 2016 1:24 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing (Post 12030110)
They do love their dead horses, don't they?



Not so great going the other way. Oh well, I managed to get my money when it was still in the $1.30s so **** it, it can go 1:1 now for all I care.

Yeah, that was raw deal for you.

Still, sovereignty eh?

Bipat Aug 19th 2016 1:24 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12030098)
Are you sure about that?

Nurses were made exempt from the income requirements, and I'm willing to bet that doctors make over 35k. Don't you think?

Also, even the government stated that the new requirements would make little difference to the number of new immigrants to the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/20...ns-australians

Nurses are "temporarily" exempt. My unanswered question is why shouldn't all immigrants be admitted on the same basis? This is one Brexit aim.

SultanOfSwing Aug 19th 2016 1:28 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12030122)
Yeah, that was raw deal for you.

Still, sovereignty eh?

A difference of nearly $20K when you compare it to the exchange rate when we put the house on the market initially. But it is what it is, my sister was all concerned about it but you take risks when you convert currency. I always said as long as it stayed above $1.30, I'd be happy enough.

On the upside we have no credit card debt anymore :D


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