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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

SultanOfSwing Apr 18th 2017 4:16 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Annetje (Post 12231730)
Why wouldn't the Commons vote against the election, let May sort out her mess and have the election, as planned, in 2020 ?

That might be the best course of action for Labour. They would likely be in a stronger position to win in 2020 than now.

Novocastrian Apr 18th 2017 4:17 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12231712)
I'm not convinced there's a real choice between a "soft" and "hard" Brexit. Unless you'd consider EEA membership as "Brexit" (difference without a lot of distinction).

In the end, there will be something - most likely an "extension" taking it into the mid-20's before anything final comes to pass. By that time, the populist fad will likely be long out of fashion, the EU will be well on its feet and prospering, and Britain will left struggling to fight a battle that's long since become passé and irrelevant.

Not Britain. The Conservative Party. Among themselves. As ever.

DXBtoDOH Apr 18th 2017 4:51 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
Nah.

May's going for a GE to get a major landslide because she's going to aim for the hardest of Brexits as possible. So she needs to make sure there's no softie votes that her current 17 seat majority threatens.

FYI you may have missed this:

IMF raises forecast for UK economic growth to 2% in 2017

It is entirely speculative as to what the economic consequences of Brexit will be. No one knows for certainty. We only know what has already happened - and that despite the doom and gloom of last year's referendum forecasting, the British economy has done extremely well.


Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12231712)
I'm not convinced there's a real choice between a "soft" and "hard" Brexit. Unless you'd consider EEA membership as "Brexit" (difference without a lot of distinction).

In the end, there will be something - most likely an "extension" taking it into the mid-20's before anything final comes to pass. By that time, the populist fad will likely be long out of fashion, the EU will be well on its feet and prospering, and Britain will left struggling to fight a battle that's long since become passé and irrelevant.


DaveLovesDee Apr 18th 2017 5:11 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12231682)
The election timings are governed by the Fixed Term Elections Act 2011.

That's correct. And that allows an early election to be called if 2/3rds of MPs agree.

InVinoVeritas Apr 18th 2017 5:22 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12231796)
That's correct. And that allows an early election to be called if 2/3rds of MPs agree.

Although May is almost certain to get the 2/3rds majority, there is a mechanism whereby she only needs a simple majority - a vote of no confidence.

amideislas Apr 18th 2017 6:12 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH (Post 12231765)
Nah.

May's going for a GE to get a major landslide because she's going to aim for the hardest of Brexits as possible. So she needs to make sure there's no softie votes that her current 17 seat majority threatens.

FYI you may have missed this:

IMF raises forecast for UK economic growth to 2% in 2017

It is entirely speculative as to what the economic consequences of Brexit will be. No one knows for certainty. We only know what has already happened - and that despite the doom and gloom of last year's referendum forecasting, the British economy has done extremely well.

The British economy has done extremely well in the EU (OK, not quite as well as Germany, but quite good).

Outside, by all credible accounts, maintaining the "punch above its weight" status that it's enjoyed as a key member of the world's largest trading bloc will require several miracles. I wonder if the Pope will be involved?

Annetje Apr 18th 2017 6:19 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
http://charts.londonstockexchange.co...rt2_15.UKX.png

Ftse 100 going down as Pound is going up ... surprise surprise

LouisB Apr 18th 2017 6:22 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12231412)
Call an early election before the truth and reality of brexit hits.
Put the Tory party and personal ambition before the country.
Nothing changes .

Yes, once again. If only the opposition wasn't quite such a feeble useless mess...

amideislas Apr 18th 2017 6:24 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Annetje (Post 12231858)
http://charts.londonstockexchange.co...rt2_15.UKX.png

Ftse 100 going down as Pound is going up ... surprise surprise

The FTSE is composed of global corporations trading in dollars and euros, but denominated in sterling on the FTSE.

LouisB Apr 18th 2017 6:24 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Annetje (Post 12231730)
Why wouldn't the Commons vote against the election, let May sort out her mess and have the election, as planned, in 2020 ?

Might be wise but JC is all for it (snap GE), even though he's leading the worst opposition party I've ever seen 🤦‍♂️

LouisB Apr 18th 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing (Post 12231671)
There is going to be a lot of election burnout in the UK, I would imagine.

Controversial comment of the day: if May needs a 2/3 majority in the Commons to hold a snap election this year, how come the brexit referendum didn't require a similar majority to be binding?

:scarper:

Bottom line, the EU referendum was advisory non-binding so never needed a majority.

The opinion poll was meant to be advice to representatives in parliament.

But what actually has happened is.... ok you know the rest. Possible con of the century.

SultanOfSwing Apr 18th 2017 6:31 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by LouisB (Post 12231866)
Bottom line, the EU referendum was advisory non-binding so never needed a majority.

The opinion poll was meant to be advice to representatives in parliament.

But what actually has happened is.... ok you know the rest. Possible con of the century.

It's like we're all in an episode of The Office, and David Brent has just become Prime Minister ...

Lion in Winter Apr 18th 2017 7:59 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing (Post 12231869)
It's like we're all in an episode of The Office, and David Brent has just become Prime Minister ...

I might actually vote for that.

DaveLovesDee Apr 18th 2017 8:02 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing (Post 12231869)
It's like we're all in an episode of The Office, and David Brent has just become Prime Minister ...

We could make a TV series and call it Yes, Prime Minister... :p:p

Oh! :rofl:

SultanOfSwing Apr 18th 2017 8:04 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12231945)
I might actually vote for that.

Actually, so would I ...


Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12231948)
We could make a TV series and call it Yes, Prime Minister... :p:p

Oh! :rofl:

Remember when stuff like that was satire, and not real life?

Wouldn't it be great if Drop The Dead Donkey was still going though? They be having a field day lately.


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