British Expats

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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

Fredbargate Aug 18th 2016 11:58 am

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12029266)
Yes, those Roman foreigners and those French foreigners who invaded our shores throughout history were eagerly accepted by the Brits of those times.

As for Britain being 'full'.

European population densities

While there are many countries with lower population densities in Europe, there are also many with higher densities.

In 2012, it was calculated that only "6.8% of the UK's land area is now classified as urban" (a definition that includes rural development and roads, by the way).

Looks to be plenty of space in Malta by some standards ( Monaco )

amideislas Aug 18th 2016 12:01 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
What is it with the fashionable trend to ignore undeniable truth in favour of hyperbole? Sure, that's always existed to a certain extent, but it's grown to rather extreme levels now.

Brexit and the Trump campaign are textbook examples. Although it's pretty clear now that Trump's hyperbole is sending him down in flames.

I think most Britons now realise that the leave campaign's hyperbole had little or nothing to do with the EU, or were flat-out porkies, and will have no chance of solving whatever "crises" Britons were led to believe they suffer (real or fabricated). Unfortunately, a bit too late to fix it.

Nonetheless, if Britain ultimately finds the courage to pull the trigger, I think it can only be good for Europe in the long run. It's simply not productive for Europe to have one member carrying the only "VIP exceptional" card, while harbouring so much hysterical fear and loathing of Europe. Nothing will be achieved if Britain remains in, unless it solely benefits Britain. That's the last thing Europe needs now.

It's wise to remember that Europe didn't vote for Britain to leave, Britain did. Europe has no obligation to give Britain any parting gifts. It's Britain's problem, not Europe's. So, please don't ask for any freebie entitlements on your way out. Benefits street is a uniquely British programme.

TGA Aug 18th 2016 5:32 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12029349)
What is it with the fashionable trend to ignore undeniable truth in favour of hyperbole? Sure, that's always existed to a certain extent, but it's grown to rather extreme levels now.

Brexit and the Trump campaign are textbook examples. Although it's pretty clear now that Trump's hyperbole is sending him down in flames.

I think most Britons now realise that the leave campaign's hyperbole had little or nothing to do with the EU, or were flat-out porkies, and will have no chance of solving whatever "crises" Britons were led to believe they suffer (real or fabricated). Unfortunately, a bit too late to fix it.

Nonetheless, if Britain ultimately finds the courage to pull the trigger, I think it can only be good for Europe in the long run. It's simply not productive for Europe to have one member carrying the only "VIP exceptional" card, while harbouring so much hysterical fear and loathing of Europe. Nothing will be achieved if Britain remains in, unless it solely benefits Britain. That's the last thing Europe needs now.

It's wise to remember that Europe didn't vote for Britain to leave, Britain did. Europe has no obligation to give Britain any parting gifts. It's Britain's problem, not Europe's. So, please don't ask for any freebie entitlements on your way out. Benefits street is a uniquely British programme.

No one's ignoring anything. The brexiters understand the risks, we understand there maybe sacrifices WE KNOW!!!! we just think that being free from the EU is worth it... all the fluctuations in the economy that may or may not of happened as part of the natural cycle of events whether brexit happened or not WE DONT CARE!!! we have BREXIT. embrace it..

DaveLovesDee Aug 18th 2016 5:52 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by TGA (Post 12029606)
we have BREXIT. embrace it..

Actually, all we've had is a non-binding referendum vote.

Until the UK is officially no longer an EU member, Brexit is only a target to aim for.

TGA Aug 18th 2016 6:05 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12029614)
Actually, all we've had is a non-binding referendum vote.

Until the UK is officially no longer an EU member, Brexit is only a target to aim for.

It's legally binding and it's a process, the wheels are in motion

Vexcore Aug 18th 2016 6:54 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by TGA (Post 12029622)
It's legally binding and it's a process, the wheels are in motion

YES!,


lets hope it will be over before 2020 though....

Gordon Barlow Aug 18th 2016 7:07 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
https://www.rt.com/business/356376-u...l-sales-surge/
British retailers making good progress, it seems... Who knows? It might turn out to be a good thing, after all.

Lion in Winter Aug 18th 2016 7:14 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by TGA (Post 12029622)
It's legally binding and it's a process, the wheels are in motion

No, I really don't think it is. Acts of Parliament are legally binding. Parliament would most likely have to undo its previous European Communities Act that allowed us to join the EU in the first place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe...s_Act_1972_(UK)

I'm not saying that they won't, or even that they shouldn't, but British law is not made via a referendum. It would be very difficult to ignore the result of the referendum, but that isn't the same thing at all.

DaveLovesDee Aug 18th 2016 7:26 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by TGA (Post 12029622)
It's legally binding

Nope.

Independent

Guardian

Express


Originally Posted by TGA (Post 12029622)
it's a process

Correct. With a start and end, neither of which has been reached yet!


Originally Posted by TGA (Post 12029622)
an wheels are in motion

When was Article 50 triggered?

mfesharne Aug 18th 2016 8:08 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Invoking Article 50: the Law, the Constitution and Politics

amideislas Aug 18th 2016 8:18 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
So, I have the TV on while doing housework, and CNN money comes on

One segment of the report is the jobs report and the spending reports in Britain - all positive.

So, the anchor (Maggie lake) has a economy analyst at PwC in London come on to tell their story. She asks about the jobs report and the consumer spending report.

He says yes, it's a surprise, with Brexit and the fall of pound, we didn't expect this.

Maggie lake asks about the relationship to brexit, and how the doomsayers said it would fall apart from here, and if this is a confirmation that it was all exaggeration.

So, he cringes a bit and says that it's good that you asked that question, because we have our own consumer sentiment polling system, and they have some interesting data regarding this. They poll online, by telephone, and just asking people on the street what their views of the economy are, what their views on brexit, whether they are saving or spending...

First, of over 10000 people polled, over 30% of them didn't realise that Britain is still in the EU. Many believed that it was decided in June, and the UK was no longer in the EU. Of those that understood that the UK is still in the EU, 60% believed that the UK would end up staying in the EU, and only 16% believed the UK would leave. The rest didn't know.

His analysis is that consumer sentiment is actually based on the presumption that nothing has happened at all. Brexit has nothing to do with it. And pointed out that the process of leaving the EU has not even begun, and that there is no legal or political mandate to do so.

He went on to say that most media, including CNN, routinely characterise everything following the vote as "post-Brexit", which is not correct, because "post-Brexit" means after the UK leaves the EU, which will not happen for years to come. And that's why people believe whatever economic doom and gloom the nay-sayers were saying obviously wasn't true. Because they neither hear or feel any negative effects so far.

But then he went on to say that it's great that there is good economic news, but the financial community knows that the day that the UK announces the invocation of Article 50, will be a day that all of that changes. The media will return to their doom and gloom, consumers will stop spending, and we will go through another cycle of downward economic trend. All on speculation.

So, Maggie asked what the real result of the ultimate brexit will be.

His answer was clear: It depends on what kind of deal can be worked out with the EU. In financial circles, the prevailing wisdom is that a "hard brexit" would unquestionably be pure economic suicide. But nobody believes the government will pursue that, so it's more likely that in the worst case, we accept a more moderate arrangement, such as EEA membership, or simply never trigger article 50 at all.

Maggie Lake went on to ask more questions about what EEA means how that compares to full EU membership, but we all know the difference (I perhaps foolishly presume), so it's not worth repeating.

At least with respect to this analysis (which is what I've leaned toward all along), it seems the "hard brexit" that many voted for, just isn't likely to happen. What does happen, well, remains to be seen.

Fredbargate Aug 18th 2016 8:36 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12029614)
Actually, all we've had is a non-binding referendum vote.

Until the UK is officially no longer an EU member, Brexit is only a target to aim for.

If a referendum is non-binding why didn't Alex and Nicola Fishface not take Scotland out of the Union?

DaveLovesDee Aug 18th 2016 8:50 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Fredbargate (Post 12029716)
If a referendum is non-binding why didn't Alex and Nicola Fishface not take Scotland out of the Union?

Try asking them.....

Alex Salmond

Nicola Sturgeon

la mancha Aug 18th 2016 9:19 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12029707)


At least with respect to this analysis (which is what I've leaned toward all along), it seems the "hard brexit" that many voted for, just isn't likely to happen. What does happen, well, remains to be seen.

I have to pull you up on this. The doom and gloom was predicted not after the UK left the EU but the day after the referendum itself. It did not happen.

Over 10,000 people polled and over 30% of them did not realise that Britain is still in the EU? Yeh, okay…

No one is saying that Brexit will be easy but I still say, until you can give evidence to the contrary, if it is a hard Brexit the rest of the EU comes down with us.

Let me put you right: the whole of the EU, especially the crippled and indebted Eurozone, will have a massive problem if Brexit does not work out satisfactory for everyone concerned. Britain does not ask for parting gifts: in fact we are net contributors to the poorer nations, Spain included, and it will be the EU’s problem when we stop contributing. Things will get even worse for the EU, and especially the Eurozone if, following an unacceptable Brexit, the UK goes into long-term and deep recession because that will pull in many European nations which eight years on are still in crisis mode. Since contributions are based on a nation’s growth, or income, there will most certainly be cutbacks in EU funding for poorer nations that will adversely affect the local population. This will affect funding for local governments and schools and hospitals, which are not doing too well in Spain at the moment, so I am reading, so, yes, it is not only the UK’s problem but the EU’s as well. I am mentioning Spain because I read the Spanish news and they are not doing too well politically at the moment.

Going back a few posts, Britain does not ask for freebies: we always pay our way, and some, as reflected in our 12 billion International Aid budget, which is the highest in Europe and only second worldwide to the US. It is the poorer EU nations that are always holding out a hand for freebies, and net contributors such as the UK who give.

May said Brexit means Brexit. If it does not she will be gone long before 2020.

amideislas Aug 18th 2016 9:49 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
So, what do you want, manch, "hard brexit"?
Have it then. Send a message to ms. May that you want to leave and it doesn't matter if it means economic suicide, because the EU is the most terrifying thing you can think of. Nigel Farage told you so.

Or are you maybe willing to compromise a little bit? That's what business and financial services are banking on.

It turns out that brexit means a lot less than originally feared for the EU. Nobody wants that, but if it comes to pass, so be it. It's not even on the radar anymore, because everybody now knows Britain needs Europe far more than Europe needs Britain. So, it's a shoulder shrug.

What do you want , manch? British exceptionalism again? I think that time is over. What else?


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