British Expats

British Expats (https://britishexpats.com/forum/)
-   Take it Outside! (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/)
-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

Bipat Aug 17th 2016 3:27 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12028611)
Some have argued that Brexit is a cultural, rather than political revolution.

I'd argue it's not a revolution at all, but simply a return to the perceptibly safe world of isolationist yesteryear, brought on by the fear of globalisation. Not unlike the debate in the US at the moment. That's probably why the leave campaign and the Trump campaign are so oft compared. The goals are eerily similar, and similarly naive.

And you're right, globalisation isn't reversible.

"Fear of globalisation", how many times must the 'blood boil'? :lol:
The "globe" contains a whole load more countries than Europe does.
The majority of the globe is not in the EU. Brexit is about globalisation.

amideislas Aug 17th 2016 5:11 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12028687)
"Fear of globalisation", how many times must the 'blood boil'? :lol:
The "globe" contains a whole load more countries than Europe does.
The majority of the globe is not in the EU. Brexit is about globalisation.

Nobody ever said it was.

It's no secret that those who voted leave were overwhelmingly comprised of older white voters who have suffered the upheavals of globalisation in their lifetime; the decline of domestic manufacturing and the jobs that go with them, the transformation to an information and services economy, etc. That's what's driving it. It's the same thing that drove Trump's popularity.

However, there was an additional factor; nationalism and fear of foreigners (particularly the immigration increases that naturally result from globalisation), justified both by the effects of globalisation being felt by the population, but also by the effects of increasing wealth disparity resulting from increasingly conservative domestic social policy, both having little or nothing to do with its EU membership. It was these "justifications", promoted with shockingly hysterical exaggeration, falsely blamed entirely on EU membership, which ultimately led to the surprising vote result.

The irony of brexit is pretty simple.

First and most obvious is the fact that most of what's driving brexit has little to do with its EU membership. The reality of this emerges daily now.

But perhaps the biggest irony is the fact that currently, Britain's global attraction (yes, in a globalised world) is that it is the preferred gateway to the world's largest economy. Britain is a mature, reliable, business-friendly place to establish a business presence that facilitates unfettered access to a $16 trillion economy of nearly 500 million consumers. That's huge. Full stop.

That's about as good as it can get for Britain, an island nation of 65 million and a GDP of a little under $3 trillion, the vast majority of that generated not in exports, but in services, about 70% of which are public (non-exportable) services such as the NHS (the UK is largely a tax-based economy, it needs taxable transactions to sustain itself), and about 12% in financial services, conducted largely by the very global (taxable) entities which are headquartered in the UK precisely because of it's added value within the EU.

But the UK has voted to leave the EU, not because of anything having to do with the EU really, but because of the downside effects of its transition to a truly globalised economy. Yet it's not all downside, Britain is actually in pretty good shape - comparatively. Well, for now, anyway.

If the UK actually does leave the EU in the way voters expected, it certainly will not represent any increased slice of the global economy. It can only mean accepting a much smaller role in it. And that's the paradox the new leadership is faced with.

It also explains the widespread uncertainty over whether the UK actually will pull the trigger. It would be close to suicidal. And anyone who understands how the world works knows that very well. Voters, however, do not.

Bipat Aug 17th 2016 6:01 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
[QUOTE=amideislas;12028814]Nobody ever said it was.

It's no secret that those who voted leave were overwhelmingly comprised of older white voters who have suffered the upheavals of globalisation in their lifetime; the decline of domestic manufacturing and the jobs that go with them, the transformation to an information and services economy, etc. That's what's driving it. It's the same thing that drove Trump's popularity.

However, there was an additional factor; nationalism and fear of foreigners (particularly the immigration increases that naturally result from globalisation), justified both by the effects of globalisation being felt by the population, but also by the effects of increasing wealth disparity resulting from increasingly conservative domestic social policy, both having little or nothing to do with its EU membership. It was these "justifications", promoted with shockingly hysterical exaggeration, falsely blamed entirely on EU membership, which ultimately led to the surprising vote result.

The irony of brexit is pretty simple.

First and most obvious is the fact that most of what's driving brexit has little to do with its EU membership. The reality of this emerges daily now.

But perhaps the biggest irony is the fact that currently, Britain's global attraction (yes, in a globalised world) is that it is the preferred gateway to the world's largest economy. Britain is a mature, reliable, business-friendly place to establish a business presence that facilitates unfettered access to a $16 trillion economy of nearly 500 million consumers. That's huge. Full stop.

That's about as good as it can get for Britain, an island nation of 65 million and a GDP of a little under $3 trillion, the vast majority of that generated not in exports, but in services, about 70% of which are public (non-exportable) services such as the NHS (the UK is largely a tax-based economy, it needs taxable transactions to sustain itself), and about 12% in financial services, conducted largely by the very global (taxable) entities which are headquartered in the UK precisely because of it's added value within the EU.

But the UK has voted to leave the EU, not because of anything having to do with the EU really, but because of the downside effects of its transition to a truly globalised economy. Yet it's not all downside, Britain is actually in pretty good shape - comparatively. Well, for now, anyway.

If the UK actually does leave the EU in the way voters expected, it certainly will not represent any increased slice of the global economy. It can only mean accepting a much smaller role in it. And that's the paradox the new leadership is faced with.

It also explains the widespread uncertainty over whether the UK actually will pull the trigger. It would be close to suicidal. And anyone who understands how the world works knows that very well. Voters, however, do not.[/QUOTE]





Just to answer a few of your points.

--As the population is mostly "white" most of the voters will be "white".
A survey published in the Times of India (I posted it before) shows that 'Desi' origin immigrants voted in exactly the same proportions as "white voters".

How do you know why voters voted the way they did?

"Voters do not know how the world works"---but you do?????

Isn't it time you stood for Parliament in the UK, became an MP, climbed through the ranks, become our Prime Minister, then saved the world!!:lol:
EMR could be your deputy. Where has he gone?

amideislas Aug 17th 2016 6:10 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
This is not only my opinion, it is well documented fact, most of which has been previously offered here in all forms, not just by me, but many others as well.

For many, it's not what they want to hear, which explains why it has been largely ignored by those who voted leave.

But ultimately, there will come a time when these realities will have to be dealt with. I suspect the new leadership has already consumed most of the reality. The question is, where to go from here, while minimising the damage?

Bipat Aug 17th 2016 6:38 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12028856)
This is not only my opinion, it is well documented fact, most of which has been previously offered here in all forms, not just by me, but many others as well.

For many, it's not what they want to hear, which explains why it has been largely ignored by those who voted leave.

But ultimately, there will come a time when these realities will have to be dealt with. I suspect the new leadership has already consumed most of the reality. The question is, where to go from here, while minimising the damage?

But you are also ignoring "facts"; the survey I indicated above.
The "fact" that you cannot possibly 'know' why all voters voted.
You cannot 'know' what voter knowlege is.
Yes, your views are a valid 'opinion'.

amideislas Aug 17th 2016 6:57 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Thanks for straightening me out on that detail, bipat, I wasn't sure if it was 72%, 57.5% or whatever.

But the fact still remains that the discontent is the result of the effects of globalisation. And... That the UK is now facing a nasty paradox, for precisely the reasons I outlined.

TGA Aug 17th 2016 7:05 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12028890)
Thanks for straightening me out on that detail, bipat, I wasn't sure if it was 72%, 57.5% or whatever.

But the fact still remains that the discontent is the result of the effects of globalisation. And... That the UK is now facing a nasty paradox, for precisely the reasons I outlined.

check out this paradox:thumbsup:
UK unemployment claimant count falls after Brexit vote

from none other than the guardian!!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/business...s-after-brexit

amideislas Aug 17th 2016 7:16 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Thanks tga. But can you explain why that has anything to do with brexit or the EU (I'd have to suspect it has more to do with the EU and/or immigration than brexit).

Oh, look here:


Part of the rise was attributed to non-UK EU nationals, and especially those from eastern Europe. The number of migrant workers from Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia topped 1 million for the first time. A record 1,007,000 migrant workers came from these countries in the second quarter of the year, up 44,000 on the previous quarter.

The number of non-UK nationals in employment increased 110,000 to 3.45 million in the second quarter, compared with a rise of just 58,000 in the number of UK nationals in work to 28.2 million. The employment rate, which measures the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work, was 74.5%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971.
At least the good news is that all those foreigners will be paying taxes. And that will help pay for all those "real" Brits on benefits street.

Dick Dasterdly Aug 17th 2016 7:31 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
From Huff Post,

"German hi-tech and manufacturing company Siemens employs 14,000 people in the UK. Prior to the referendum they issued a press release stating: “In addition to the benefits of EU membership, we have concerns about what Brexit could mean in practice. Most commentators agree that a Brexit would disrupt the economy in the short-term and we believe that uncertainty about the UK’s future relationship with the EU could have more significant and negative long-term effects…This uncertainty, and threat of increased costs, could make the UK a less attractive place to do business and may become a factor when Siemens is considering future investment here.”

Once the referendum result was announced Joe Kaeser, the chief executive of Siemens, said “we’re here for the long-term and we don’t let ourselves get jerked up and down. We’re staying because the UK is a good place to do business and the company had been misunderstood in the heat of the Brexit campaign."

Just one of many apparent U turns since the referendum.

If this is Armageddon, then bring it on.

:thumbsup:

Bipat Aug 17th 2016 7:32 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12028890)
Thanks for straightening me out on that detail, bipat, I wasn't sure if it was 72%, 57.5% or whatever.

But the fact still remains that the discontent is the result of the effects of globalisation. And... That the UK is now facing a nasty paradox, for precisely the reasons I outlined.

Not sure what you are referring to?? I didn't mention any figures.

You stated as a 'fact' that the majority 'leave' vote was "white", I pointed out that a survey indicated that the 'brown' vote was of the same proportions.

What is your definition of "globalisation", I have always thought that the globe consisted of more than Europe. --Well I know it does, that is a 'fact'-. Unless you are so xenophobic that anywhere beyond Europe is out of your comfort zone?

amideislas Aug 17th 2016 7:43 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Bipat (Post 12028928)
Not sure what you are referring to?? I didn't mention any figures.

You stated as a 'fact' that the majority 'leave' vote was "white", I pointed out that a survey indicated that the 'brown' vote was of the same proportions.

What is your definition of "globalisation", I have always thought that the globe consisted of more than Europe. --Well I know it does, that is a 'fact'-. Unless you are so xenophobic that anywhere beyond Europe is out of your comfort zone?

I believe you missed the point. Britain, like all other western economies, has equally suffered the transitional effects of globalisation. Manufacturing went to Asia, and being that Britain has few natural resources, and a small land mass which supports a proportionately large population, doesn't have a sustaining agriculture economy either. It had little choice but to shift to a service economy. That's been going on for 50 years or so.

In the face of that, the extent of Britain's continued prosperity is facilitated almost wholly by its EU membership. Britain is today a global economic power because it is the front gate to the world's largest economy. Without that, we're back to an island with few natural resources, and a small service economy.

But, that's what Britain voted for, so, the question is more about how to move forward with the least damage.

Dick Dasterdly Aug 17th 2016 7:51 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Unemployment Falls After Brexit - Guido Fawkes Euro Guido

Disappointment for the Guardian....and one or two others....on here.

Giantaxe Aug 17th 2016 8:01 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12028926)
From Huff Post,

"German hi-tech and manufacturing company Siemens employs 14,000 people in the UK. Prior to the referendum they issued a press release stating: “In addition to the benefits of EU membership, we have concerns about what Brexit could mean in practice. Most commentators agree that a Brexit would disrupt the economy in the short-term and we believe that uncertainty about the UK’s future relationship with the EU could have more significant and negative long-term effects…This uncertainty, and threat of increased costs, could make the UK a less attractive place to do business and may become a factor when Siemens is considering future investment here.”

Once the referendum result was announced Joe Kaeser, the chief executive of Siemens, said “we’re here for the long-term and we don’t let ourselves get jerked up and down. We’re staying because the UK is a good place to do business and the company had been misunderstood in the heat of the Brexit campaign."

Just one of many apparent U turns since the referendum.

If this is Armageddon, then bring it on.

:thumbsup:


I'm not seeing a U-turn in what you have quoted. The first quote is about future investment considerations. The second is affirming that Siemens is "staying" in the UK. It says nothing on their post-Brexit viewpoint on future investment in the UK.

johnwoo Aug 17th 2016 8:19 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12028950)
Unemployment Falls After Brexit - Guido Fawkes Euro Guido

Disappointment for the Guardian....and one or two others....on here.

Isn't there some sort of irony there, when the UK doesn't want to be be part of the EU, but is increasingly reliant on it for jobs. Not exactly standing on it's own is it. Perhaps be the UK will become a source for cheap labour.

sir_eccles Aug 17th 2016 9:28 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
I see reports that Nigel Farage was spotted in line at the German embassy, he of course denies he was there for a German passport. He has also grown a mustache.


All times are GMT. The time now is 5:35 am.

Powered by vBulletin: ©2000 - 2022, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.