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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

SultanOfSwing Apr 6th 2017 8:36 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12223290)
Where's Dick?

It's a couple hours past his wake-up time (around 13:00 CET). Normally he'd be here extolling the virtues of Britain's world domination, while enjoying his famous "breakfast of champions", but nothing so far.

Can someone give him a call and see if he's OK?

Maybe you have to say his name 3 times, like Betelgeuse.

Dick.

There's two.

morpeth Apr 6th 2017 9:42 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by lutonlad (Post 12223020)
The political class will indeed decide the outcome of Brexit, with many string pullers (on both sides) using the process to promote their ideologies and dogma - the voices of pragmatism and reason taking a back seat.

I'd suggest that most reasonable Leavers would not object to any transitional arrangement maintaining the status quo in terms of EU immigration, provided it enabled civilised and productive negotiations. The same people who in no way object to Free Movement per se, but are perhaps are suspicious that it's one of the drivers that will lead to closer integration and eventually a federal Europe. Hence their desire for the UK alone to decide on it's immigration policy as indeed should any country IMHO.

Of course, had Mr C had been taken more seriously...


I wonder what would happen if May as canny enough to negotiate a final opt-out with Germany concerning say limiting the numbers of lower skilled EU citizens who could be in UK at any one time, a few such items, then had the guts to call another referendum- would the percentages be the same ? If the vote was 60/40 either way would it make it easier for people to accept ? I think German businesses could survive less lower skilled workers being in the UK compared to losing some market share in Britian. And if that was a big issue for some who voted for Brexit, maybe that would change the result.

I am not saying the UK shouldn't leave the EU, it just seems if it leaves it is just a mess how it is being handled and such divisiveness on the subject.

amideislas Apr 6th 2017 9:44 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12223338)
I wonder what would happen if May as canny enough to negotiate a final opt-out with Germany concerning say limiting the numbers of lower skilled EU citizens who could be in UK at any one time, a few such items, then had the guts to call another referendum- would the percentages be the same ? If the vote was 60/40 either way would it make it easier for people to accept ? I think German businesses could survive less lower skilled workers being in the UK compared to losing some market share in Britian. And if that was a big issue for some who voted for Brexit, maybe that would change the result.

I am not saying the UK shouldn't leave the EU, it just seems if it leaves it is just a mess how it is being handled and such divisiveness on the subject.

Oh, Christ. You know less than even the least educated of Brits.

Annetje Apr 6th 2017 10:09 pm

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12223338)
I wonder what would happen if May as canny enough to negotiate a final opt-out with Germany concerning say limiting the numbers of lower skilled EU citizens who could be in UK at any one time, a few such items, then had the guts to call another referendum- would the percentages be the same ? If the vote was 60/40 either way would it make it easier for people to accept ? I think German businesses could survive less lower skilled workers being in the UK compared to losing some market share in Britian. And if that was a big issue for some who voted for Brexit, maybe that would change the result.

I am not saying the UK shouldn't leave the EU, it just seems if it leaves it is just a mess how it is being handled and such divisiveness on the subject.

Germany does NOT represent the EU and can not make ''deals'' for the EU, no matter what your gossip press says !

Assanah Apr 7th 2017 4:14 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Annetje (Post 12223363)
Germany does NOT represent the EU and can not make ''deals'' for the EU, no matter what your gossip press says !

So true.
Furthermore I think the EU is done with British attempts at coercion and extortion. The UK had so many op- outs and deals. I don't think that there is room for more. Especially not with regards to immigration as the UK was the one country in the EU that absolutely wanted freedom of movement for the new Eastern member states. Other big EU member states didn't want that right away. I guess they probably knew what they where doing. Or maybe not because they are all bloody foreigners.

Fredbargate Apr 7th 2017 4:56 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12223283)
Those Gibraltar fleas from the apes must have got a taste for you, I would have thought that it was too old and bitter even for them.

At least I am posting from a position of having witnessed the events unlike you who makes up the lies as you go.

You couldn't recognise the truth if it bit you on the arse along with your own personal flea circus.

amideislas Apr 7th 2017 7:47 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
Happy Friday!

Found this. A well-written examination of the realities of UK trade, and the challenges that Brexit will impose on it. Not a terribly difficult read, and well worth the effort.

Bracing ourselves for Brexit

There is a new ambivalence about trade in western societies. Remarkably, this unpicking of the pro-globalization orthodoxy of the post-Cold War period has come not from the world’s poor, nor from the ranks of the usual protectionist suspects, but from within the two great advocates of open trade: America and Britain. We have an American President who says ‘protection will lead to great prosperity and strength’, while Britain is turning its back on the European Union internal market it invented.


This is a difficult context in which to pursue the vision of Global Britain. It is ironic that the first step towards this involves leaving the world’s most sophisticated international trade and regulatory system.

Making a reality of the soundbite will require a new, hard-headed and evidence-based strategy for future British trade; one which reflects the realities of our markets in the world, the changing nature of trade, with its complex international supply chains and the growth of services and digital commerce, and the relative strengths of the UK economy. Brexit also makes it more important than ever for the UK to defend an international trade system in the World Trade Organization with rules ensuring non-discrimination, fair competition and enforcement.

Alone, we will be less equipped to cope in a trade environment driven by the bilateral and power-based instincts of the new US administration and China, or indeed the sheer trading weight of the future EU.

Read more

Red Eric Apr 7th 2017 8:06 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
Yes, it's astonishing, that first paragraph or two, isn't it?

Not only have those two countries dragged so many others with them but those within them who were and are responsible for it now find it so easy to deflect any blame from themselves and instead point the finger at "liberals" and "elites". Bloody marvellous.

I suppose one has to admire them to a certain extent for the sheer gall of it.

amideislas Apr 7th 2017 8:22 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
There are so many sobering points made in that piece. And they aren't simply "opinions". For example:

Commonwealth trade ministers met recently in London, and we should definitely seek new opportunities with them. Australia and New Zealand are keen for bilateral trade agreements, but between them account for less than 2 per cent of UK exports. Early agreements are politically desirable, but secondary in economic terms. Should they be a priority for our inevitably limited negotiating resources?

It is a little remarked fact that 32 Commonwealth countries, mainly in Africa and the Caribbean, are covered by EU foreign trade agreements or have tariff-free access to our markets. Until we negotiate new agreements with them we risk being in the odd position of having worse trading terms with these Commonwealth countries than the EU does.

iano Apr 7th 2017 8:49 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12223559)
Happy Friday!

Happy Friday, ami, very good find with interesting points raised.

"Trade would not stop, but it would cost more, placing UK-based businesses at a competitive disadvantage against European competitors."

This point has often been overlooked; outside the EU we will no longer be competing on the 'level playing field' of Europe, we'll be competing from a slope. Should the EU up their game, especially in the services sector, well, they'll be licking their lips at the potential opportunities already...

It is a little remarked fact that 32 Commonwealth countries, mainly in Africa and the Caribbean, are covered by EU foreign trade agreements or have tariff-free access to our markets........by any calculation the new trade strategy for Global Britain must start with Europe and America.


More valid points for 'Global Britain' strategists to consider, especially Dr Fox on his jolly boys outing to the Philippines (0.8% UK trade).

DaveLovesDee Apr 7th 2017 9:11 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12223581)
It is a little remarked fact that 32 Commonwealth countries, mainly in Africa and the Caribbean, are covered by EU foreign trade agreements or have tariff-free access to our markets. Until we negotiate new agreements with them we risk being in the odd position of having worse trading terms with these Commonwealth countries than the EU does.[/I]

A very good post, and I'd also add that even when we're making these deals, will they be as good as the current deals the EU already has? I doubt they'll be better than current deals.

We're going to spend time and money re-inventing the same deals we're leaving.

Lion in Winter Apr 7th 2017 10:49 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12223559)
Happy Friday!

Found this. A well-written examination of the realities of UK trade, and the challenges that Brexit will impose on it. Not a terribly difficult read, and well worth the effort.

Bracing ourselves for Brexit

There is a new ambivalence about trade in western societies. Remarkably, this unpicking of the pro-globalization orthodoxy of the post-Cold War period has come not from the world’s poor, nor from the ranks of the usual protectionist suspects, but from within the two great advocates of open trade: America and Britain. We have an American President who says ‘protection will lead to great prosperity and strength’, while Britain is turning its back on the European Union internal market it invented.


This is a difficult context in which to pursue the vision of Global Britain. It is ironic that the first step towards this involves leaving the world’s most sophisticated international trade and regulatory system.

Making a reality of the soundbite will require a new, hard-headed and evidence-based strategy for future British trade; one which reflects the realities of our markets in the world, the changing nature of trade, with its complex international supply chains and the growth of services and digital commerce, and the relative strengths of the UK economy. Brexit also makes it more important than ever for the UK to defend an international trade system in the World Trade Organization with rules ensuring non-discrimination, fair competition and enforcement.

Alone, we will be less equipped to cope in a trade environment driven by the bilateral and power-based instincts of the new US administration and China, or indeed the sheer trading weight of the future EU.

Read more


Originally Posted by Red Eric (Post 12223570)
Yes, it's astonishing, that first paragraph or two, isn't it?

Not only have those two countries dragged so many others with them but those within them who were and are responsible for it now find it so easy to deflect any blame from themselves and instead point the finger at "liberals" and "elites". Bloody marvellous.

I suppose one has to admire them to a certain extent for the sheer gall of it.


Yeah but "sovereignty". Or was it "freedom"?

Assanah Apr 7th 2017 11:30 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12223608)
A very good post, and I'd also add that even when we're making these deals, will they be as good as the current deals the EU already has? I doubt they'll be better than current deals.

We're going to spend time and money re-inventing the same deals we're leaving.

We have discussed this many times. From a trade point of view the advantages of Brexit are minimal to non-existent.

morpeth Apr 7th 2017 11:36 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12223340)
Oh, Christ. You know less than even the least educated of Brits.

Just posed the question, it isn't about knowing less- the negotiations could take various turns depending on how they are handled and sometime boldness can achieve results unimaginable to conventional wisdom. Look at Trump's election, something I am sure the "educated" observers two years would have said the same thing about, that it wouldn't happen.

EMR Apr 7th 2017 11:42 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12223666)
Just posed the question, it isn't about knowing less- the negotiations could take various turns depending on how they are handled and sometime boldness can achieve results unimaginable to conventional wisdom. Look at Trump's election, something I am sure the "educated" observers two years would have said the same thing about, that it wouldn't happen.

It's not about the result but it's consequences.
Nothing in Trumps actions to date suggests that his achievements vs election rhetoric will amount to much.
Just like brexit.


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