British Expats

British Expats (https://britishexpats.com/forum/)
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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

iano Apr 5th 2017 8:56 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Red Eric (Post 12222033)
I don't think you even know you're doing it - it's really quite puzzling.

As Brexit 'strategy' is being unraveled like a kitten's ball of wool, best ignore the mess and deflect attention by attacking Merkel/Juncker.

#takebackcontrol

morpeth Apr 5th 2017 9:01 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by iano (Post 12221730)
As it explained in the linked Reuters article; London's Euro derivative clearing business could be forcibly moved to the continent through EU legislation, and the ECB are fully behind it, as they were 2 years ago.

The EU can make some business methods more difficult, such as the clearing mechanisms currently used but it cant eliminate London's ability to dominate the derivative business. If a business is looking for a credit swap, or an innovative derivative arrangement, they will go to where the best deal is. There are many derivatives involving currencies and shares of a country done completely outside the country of origin.

The crisis in 2008 was triggered at Bear Sterns involving derivatives, closing out derivatives overnight through draconian changes in clearing mechanisms would be a disaster for all. EU and UK banks will force their governments to work out the changes.

Why the UK wants to give up though the benefits that do exist with the current clearing mechanisms is hard to understand.

DaveLovesDee Apr 5th 2017 9:25 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12222062)
closing out derivatives overnight through draconian changes in clearing mechanisms would be a disaster for all.

But it wouldnt be.

You set up a parallel server and migrate everything across over a short period of time.

IT people migrate data flows across servers regularly.

Assanah Apr 5th 2017 9:31 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by morpeth (Post 12222062)

Why the UK wants to give up though the benefits that do exist with the current clearing mechanisms is hard to understand.

As payment for access to the EU markets perhaps?

morpeth Apr 5th 2017 9:49 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee (Post 12222078)
But it wouldnt be.

You set up a parallel server and migrate everything across over a short period of time.

IT people migrate data flows across servers regularly.

If an existing derivative involved a long duration, I understand the data can be moved as you say-but if the EU wanted to unravel existing derivatives and credit swaps denominated in Euros, it would be a nightmare. Anyway it wont happen, the danger is too big.

Lion in Winter Apr 5th 2017 9:59 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
Anyway...


Brexit: Theresa May suggests free movement extension - BBC News

Assanah Apr 5th 2017 10:14 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12222097)


Well something got to give. If it is not the derivative business than maybe immigration. If it is not immigration than payments into the EU budet. Maybe a combination of these factors. We will see. But a good sign that the UK government finally starts thinking and stops being so emotional :thumbup:.

Lion in Winter Apr 5th 2017 10:57 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
Not to mention...


"So there we have it. A Tory Brexit is not “taking back control”, it is surrendering it to the Donald Trumps, the Saudi dictators, the Turkish autocrats, the Israeli hardliners. Meanwhile, the rest of the world mocks us as we debate the colour of our passports and talk about war with Spain. Yes, for too long British foreign policy has been subordinate to the United States, guilty of involvement in disastrous wars, and loyally supportive of murderous foreign governments. May’s Brexit strategy could make all of these things so much worse. Just look at our prime minister, genuflecting to tyrants who believe in chopping off people’s heads. Taking back control indeed."

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-arabia-terror

We're not really distinguishing ourselves, are we.

EMR Apr 5th 2017 11:05 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12222114)
Not to mention...


"So there we have it. A Tory Brexit is not “taking back control”, it is surrendering it to the Donald Trumps, the Saudi dictators, the Turkish autocrats, the Israeli hardliners. Meanwhile, the rest of the world mocks us as we debate the colour of our passports and talk about war with Spain. Yes, for too long British foreign policy has been subordinate to the United States, guilty of involvement in disastrous wars, and loyally supportive of murderous foreign governments. May’s Brexit strategy could make all of these things so much worse. Just look at our prime minister, genuflecting to tyrants who believe in chopping off people’s heads. Taking back control indeed."

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-arabia-terror

We're not really distinguishing ourselves, are we.

Distinguishing ourselves as major arms dealer and sycophant when it comes to the regimes mentioned.
We cry crocodile tears over Syria yet support and arm Saudi in the Yemen.
What if Assad had been a major buyer of UK arms and aircraft, who knows?

EMR Apr 5th 2017 11:08 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Assanah (Post 12222099)
Well something got to give. If it is not the derivative business than maybe immigration. If it is not immigration than payments into the EU budet. Maybe a combination of these factors. We will see. But a good sign that the UK government finally starts thinking and stops being so emotional :thumbup:.

Taking control has a new meaning, under Brexit it is now May's decision to have free movement.
The end result is the same.

iano Apr 5th 2017 11:11 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12222097)

Many young EU migrants had come to the UK to settle, make a life and start a family, and many have done so already.

Obviously a different kind of EU itinerant will be tempted to come to the UK during any 'transitional' phase, what a ******' mess.

Lion in Winter Apr 5th 2017 11:17 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by EMR (Post 12222117)
Distinguishing ourselves as major arms dealer and sycophant when it comes to the regimes mentioned.
We cry crocodile tears over Syria yet support and arm Saudi in the Yemen.
What if Assad had been a major buyer of UK arms and aircraft, who knows?

We've always sold arms to pretty much anyone. The question now is will we be driven even further in that direction.

amideislas Apr 5th 2017 11:20 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12222114)
Not to mention...


"So there we have it. A Tory Brexit is not “taking back control”, it is surrendering it to the Donald Trumps, the Saudi dictators, the Turkish autocrats, the Israeli hardliners. Meanwhile, the rest of the world mocks us as we debate the colour of our passports and talk about war with Spain. Yes, for too long British foreign policy has been subordinate to the United States, guilty of involvement in disastrous wars, and loyally supportive of murderous foreign governments. May’s Brexit strategy could make all of these things so much worse. Just look at our prime minister, genuflecting to tyrants who believe in chopping off people’s heads. Taking back control indeed."

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-arabia-terror

We're not really distinguishing ourselves, are we.

If you consider how leave camp Brexit aspirations have "shifted" since before the referendum, having been forced to learn what Brexit actually means, perhaps this is just another indication that reality is finally setting in. And I reckon it's a bit worrisome for them.

Low hanging fruit? Britain's going to need to get all the trade it can muster, in record time, wherever it comes from, or however it's manifested.

Lest we not forget elections are coming. May will need to show "progress" because the economic news (and hence, the electorate) is unlikely to be "happy" by then.

EMR Apr 5th 2017 11:25 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter (Post 12222126)
We've always sold arms to pretty much anyone. The question now is will we be driven even further in that direction.

Probably, it one of the few exports the rest of the world wants.
Two way over budget aircraft carriers without aircraft available if the right buyer came along.

Assanah Apr 5th 2017 11:40 am

Re: Post EU Referendum
 
The really sad part of the whole Brexit thing is that we are debating topics of the last century instead of focusing on digitalisation or the refugee crisis. I hope the EU will be able to leave the Brexit discussion behind soon and focus on the future - really we need to get rid of the influence of the UK on all levels fast. It is bad.


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