British Expats

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-   -   Post EU Referendum (https://britishexpats.com/forum/take-outside-67/post-eu-referendum-879308/)

la mancha Aug 15th 2016 2:06 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12027098)
Not really. The EU is hardly dependent upon the UK.

In the (unlikely, but extremely unfortunate) event that the UK would commit economic suicide, surely Europe would suffer, but not existentially. The EU economy is about 6x the size of the UK, and is an export economy. Most of which isn't to the UK.

This is Britain's game to lose. There are no winners though, so it's a bit optimistic to say it's Britain's game to "win".

You don’t give up, do you, always quick on the draw with your opinions. The ink on my post wasn’t dry yet! I’m surprised you haven’t posted a link to a blog some nobody has written to back up your claims.

You said it again: the EU is an export economy and we are one of its biggest trading partners. I suppose Germany will make up the ninety billion it exports to the UK without job losses if everything turns out for the worse, which it will not. The EU is hardly dependent on the UK? Try telling that to those employees across the Eurozone hanging onto their jobs by the thinnest of threads. If the UK suffers, European nations will suffer equally. It doesn’t matter how large or small the EU economy is: it is down to European nations. Unrest is rife across the Eurozone where jobs are concerned, no matter what links you post to the contrary.

You talk of Britain’s game to lose. This is not a game. We are talking about 500 million livelihoods, but to you on your tiny island you may view it as a game.

Fredbargate Aug 15th 2016 2:09 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Editha (Post 12026913)
Personally, I hope that Brexit does fail. The EU is important for maintaining peace in Europe, and if the cost of avoiding WW3 is the UK's economic failure, then so be it.

As for the Olympics, they are corrupt, drug ridden and a distasteful expression of nationalism, an ideology which is responsible for the deaths of millions.

Some of your MP's are not so sure

https://www.thespainreport.com/artic...tar-incursions

amideislas Aug 15th 2016 2:29 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by la mancha (Post 12027136)
You don’t give up, do you, always quick on the draw with your opinions. The ink on my post wasn’t dry yet! I’m surprised you haven’t posted a link to a blog some nobody has written to back up your claims.

You said it again: the EU is an export economy and we are one of its biggest trading partners. I suppose Germany will make up the ninety billion it exports to the UK without job losses if everything turns out for the worse, which it will not. The EU is hardly dependent on the UK? Try telling that to those employees across the Eurozone hanging onto their jobs by the thinnest of threads. If the UK suffers, European nations will suffer equally. It doesn’t matter how large or small the EU economy is: it is down to European nations. Unrest is rife across the Eurozone where jobs are concerned, no matter what links you post to the contrary.

You talk of Britain’s game to lose. This is not a game. We are talking about 500 million livelihoods, but to you on your tiny island you may view it as a game.

Look, Britain chose this path, not Europe. It's not Europe's fault or responsibility. It's Britain's. Solely.

In hindsight, it's clear that Britain is facing a daunting task that has no upside for anyone. But that's just how it is, and Britain now just needs to figure out how to do this with the least damage.

Europe owes Britain nothing. This was Britain's choice, not Europe's. It's Britain's game, not Europe's.

amideislas Aug 15th 2016 4:41 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Oh, and I've mentioned this before, but you've always glossed over it:

Even if the UK left lock, stock and barrel: NO EEA, No EU, Britain alone - why would European exports to the UK come to a halt? Is the UK going to ban European products? Impose tariffs?

The UK is highly dependent on imports - food, transport, machines.. you name it. Currently Europe supplies most of it to Britain. Is Britain suddenly going to buy all its fruit and veg from South America? Planes, trains and automobiles from the US? Will it be prohibited to own an Audi, VW, Merc, Seat, Volvo, or BMW in the UK? Illegal to sell Spanish/French/German fruit and veg or wine? Really?

In contrast, the UK exports little. And even less to Europe. I don't believe the loss of British imports would matter all that much to Europe. The UK does, however, export lots of services to Europe, but services wouldn't likely be allowed without passporting rights (presuming the UK just leaves the EU in full with no EEA, which it won't likely do).

Otherwise, there are about 5 major cities in Europe licking their chops in anticipation of a UK business, banking and financial services migration to the continent to take advantage of the common market, should Britain lose access to it. It's a great bargaining chip for Europe in the final negotiation.

Annetje Aug 15th 2016 6:34 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12027215)
Oh, and I've mentioned this before, but you've always glossed over it:

Even if the UK left lock, stock and barrel: NO EEA, No EU, Britain alone - why would European exports to the UK come to a halt? Is the UK going to ban European products? Impose tariffs?

The UK is highly dependent on imports - food, transport, machines.. you name it. Currently Europe supplies most of it to Britain. Is Britain suddenly going to buy all its fruit and veg from South America? Planes, trains and automobiles from the US? Will it be prohibited to own an Audi, VW, Merc, Seat, Volvo, or BMW in the UK? Illegal to sell Spanish/French/German fruit and veg or wine? Really?

In contrast, the UK exports little. And even less to Europe. I don't believe the loss of British imports would matter all that much to Europe. The UK does, however, export lots of services to Europe, but services wouldn't likely be allowed without passporting rights (presuming the UK just leaves the EU in full with no EEA, which it won't likely do).

Otherwise, there are about 5 major cities in Europe licking their chops in anticipation of a UK business, banking and financial services migration to the continent to take advantage of the common market, should Britain lose access to it. It's a great bargaining chip for Europe in the final negotiation.


And, thanks to the exchange rate at the moment, everything imported from the EU is more or less 12,5 % more expensive ... (and my pension is 12,5 % less)

Dick Dasterdly Aug 15th 2016 7:14 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
These are the clowns to which the BBC and other media outlets attributed headline news almost every day in the run up to the referendum......

Furthermore the phoney propaganda they were churning out was posted many times by regular contributors on BE forums and elsewhere.


IMF forced to admit UK’s economy is GROWING despite Brexit doom-mongering | UK | News | Daily Express


They are on the payroll of the EU, surprise,surprise,

While their managing director is facing charges relating to a 400,000 euro plus corruption/fraud scandal.

Both the EU and the IMF are rotten to the core and it truly amazes me why people are not ashamed to be even remotely associated with either organisation. :cool:

JamesM Aug 15th 2016 7:29 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12027268)

Both the EU and the IMF are rotten to the core and it truly amazes me why people are not ashamed to be even remotely associated with either organisation. :cool:

Although the Daily Express is not exactly a more reliable machine of information is it ;)

Giantaxe Aug 15th 2016 7:32 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12027268)
These are the clowns to which the BBC and other media outlets attributed headline news almost every day in the run up to the referendum......

Furthermore the phoney propaganda they were churning out was posted many times by regular contributors on BE forums and elsewhere.


IMF forced to admit UK’s economy is GROWING despite Brexit doom-mongering | UK | News | Daily Express

Interesting spin there by the Daily Express in reaction to growth forecasts for the UK actually being cut. You'd never know that from reading the Daily Express article; I wonder why they neglect to mention it?

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ng-brexit-vote

amideislas Aug 15th 2016 8:48 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by Dick Dasterdly (Post 12027268)
These are the clowns to which the BBC and other media outlets attributed headline news almost every day in the run up to the referendum......

Furthermore the phoney propaganda they were churning out was posted many times by regular contributors on BE forums and elsewhere.


IMF forced to admit UK’s economy is GROWING despite Brexit doom-mongering | UK | News | Daily Express


They are on the payroll of the EU, surprise,surprise,

While their managing director is facing charges relating to a 400,000 euro plus corruption/fraud scandal.

Both the EU and the IMF are rotten to the core and it truly amazes me why people are not ashamed to be even remotely associated with either organisation. :cool:

Well, Dick, as I said before, you're not the only victim of tabloid media. Millions of others "trusted" the ridiculous narratives offered by the most popular tabloid media in Britain. It's only natural that you'd be desperate for validation now.

But the reality remains: You chose it, and so you must accept it. I realise that this is not a particularly easy thing for many Britons to accept, after all, you've been led to believe for generations that whatever your lot in life, it's not your fault. It's the fault of the government, who oversees your lot in life. Not your responsibility. Leaving the EU will not free you from that, but again, that's your choice. The UK is indeed a fully autonomous, self-governing democracy, but even as you continue to tout the benefits of British "freedom and democracy", at some point, you will need to actually take some responsibility for it. After all, you are fortunate enough to have all of the authority, yet none of the burden of responsibility.

I wish you well in your pursuit of happiness, although I doubt you will ever find it.

Adios, Bon Voyage!

la mancha Aug 15th 2016 9:25 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12027156)
Look, Britain chose this path, not Europe. It's not Europe's fault or responsibility. It's Britain's. Solely.

In hindsight, it's clear that Britain is facing a daunting task that has no upside for anyone. But that's just how it is, and Britain now just needs to figure out how to do this with the least damage.

Europe owes Britain nothing. This was Britain's choice, not Europe's. It's Britain's game, not Europe's.

I agree. There is no upside for anyone so it is in not only Britain’s interest but also the rest of Europe to reach a satisfactory conclusion. I only respond to posts on here because some think Brexit will only be bad for Britain. The whole of Europe is facing a daunting task if negotiations are conducted in a spiteful manner on behalf of the EU. As for Europe owing Britain nothing, I think if that is so then you and Europe have very short memories. Coming up to present, though, Eastern European nations in particular do owe Britain a great deal, and will surely miss us in the future.

A British departure increases the likelihood that emerging EU member states will suffer from scaled back financial support from the EU that they rely on to build roads and other infrastructure. With its $545 billion economy and 38 million people, Poland is scheduled to receive 114.7 billion euros ($127 billion) of funds between 2014 and 2020, the most of all states in the EU. The country received about 4 billion euros in remittances annually from compatriots living in other EU countries, mostly in the U.K., central bank estimates showed last year.

It is in everybody’s interests to make a success of Brexit negotiations because we all have a lot to lose if not.

As for not being Europe’s fault, I agree again. It is the fault of the European Union, and Europe will have to live with the consequences of negotiations carried out by unelected EU bureaucrats. Let us all hope they are successful for all concerned.

And it is no game.

la mancha Aug 15th 2016 9:31 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 

Originally Posted by amideislas (Post 12027215)
Oh, and I've mentioned this before, but you've always glossed over it:

Even if the UK left lock, stock and barrel: NO EEA, No EU, Britain alone - why would European exports to the UK come to a halt? Is the UK going to ban European products? Impose tariffs?

The UK is highly dependent on imports - food, transport, machines.. you name it. Currently Europe supplies most of it to Britain. Is Britain suddenly going to buy all its fruit and veg from South America? Planes, trains and automobiles from the US? Will it be prohibited to own an Audi, VW, Merc, Seat, Volvo, or BMW in the UK? Illegal to sell Spanish/French/German fruit and veg or wine? Really?

In contrast, the UK exports little. And even less to Europe. I don't believe the loss of British imports would matter all that much to Europe. The UK does, however, export lots of services to Europe, but services wouldn't likely be allowed without passporting rights (presuming the UK just leaves the EU in full with no EEA, which it won't likely do).

Otherwise, there are about 5 major cities in Europe licking their chops in anticipation of a UK business, banking and financial services migration to the continent to take advantage of the common market, should Britain lose access to it. It's a great bargaining chip for Europe in the final negotiation.

The negotiations will be about trade-offs, and not trade to trade trade-offs. No one wants to impose tariffs, especially the UK. In fact, the UK wants to have the best negotiations possible all round to prevent the economic fall of European economies. Europe is our friend. A failing EU/Eurozone is bad for Britain as you can see with our falling exports to the EU/Eurozone while those to the rest of the world are on the rise.

I haven’t glossed over anything. Read my post 1591 again, where I said ‘if everything turns out for the worse, which it will not’. I am saying if the UK suffers Europe will as well. If we have financial trade restrictions I am sure they will be reciprocated in kind with a trade-off restriction. Not very nice for all concerned but entirely plausible. As I keep reminding you, the ball is in the court of unelected EU bureaucrats. Have faith!

The government does not buy cars or other consumables we import. People do that. If the UK economy collapses or goes into long-term recession consumer spending goes with it. The knock-on effect will be felt across Europe.

The UK has much to lose but the EU/Eurozone has even more: the Union itself. If that goes the world economy can go with it. A lot depends on a good Brexit.

Why do you think German industrialists and businesses are telling Merkel they want an easy Brexit? Because it will be Germany again who has to pick up the tab for a failed Eurozone economy and I do not think the Eurozone or the German people have the stomach for it again, especially as the Eurozone has not even exited the last crisis.

Just a few points I found on the internet. I have not included links as the post would be unwieldy but if you Goggle them you will find them.

Joerg Zeuner, economist at KfW, said: "The decision to leave the EU will hit the British economy, and the slowdown will spread to Germany through muted exports.”

The Netherlands will be hit hard if Britain leaves the EU, a Dutch government think tank warned Thursday, predicting a possible 1.2-percent fall in GDP by 2030 and a 10-billion-euro trade loss.

Cypriot economy will be hard hit by brexit.

German economy to be hit hard with brexit.

The Spanish economy will be hit hard with brexit.

Everyone involved would lose economically. Germany can expect GDP loses of between 0.1% and 0.3%, but Ireland, Luxembourg and Belgium would suffer the most from a UK exit.

“A Brexit is a losing game for everyone in Europe from an economic perspective,” said Bertelsmann Stiftung Chairman Aart De Geus. “It would be an especially bitter setback for European integration as well as Europe’s place in the world.”

Germany's chambers of commerce lowered its sights for exports to Britain, forecasting a darkening trade outlook as the impact of Britons' vote to leave the European Union seeps into the euro zone economy.

"Brexit will hurt the German economy in the long term," said Eric Schweitzer, president of the DIHK Chambers of Industry and Commerce, which now sees a 1 percent drop in exports to Britain this year, down from a previously expected 5 percent rise.

Italy's Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said, "We have to be very clear: it can't be ruled out that, following Brexit, for reasons outside our control, the economic picture worsens and we will have less growth," Padoan told the Corriere della Sera daily in an interview.

But don’t let us go through the EU/Eurozone country by country. Let us round it up.

A study by the German Bertelsmann Foundation, relying on Ifo estimates, shows that a Brexit could lower Eurozone GDP growth by between 0.01 and 0.03 percentage points each year.

It is undisputable that Britain plays an important role in the EU. Whether it is the share in total population, total GDP or FDI, Britain ranks in the top three countries and a Brexit would be a big loss.

These are worst case scenarios. Brexit can be good or it can be bad. The ball is in the EU’s court.

So you see a successful Brexit is good not only for Britain but for the EU/Eurozone as a whole. As you say, we voted for it and now we will pursue a successful future not only for Britain but for our European friends as well because it goes hand in hand. The last thing, for example, the Baleares wants is another recession in Spain, seeing as how over 45’s on the Baleares find it almost impossible to find a job.

As for happiness, I am over the moon with it! You can keep the EU and everything that goes with it. Britain will still be friends with European nations. Maybe in your own small back yard you cannot see that.

amideislas Aug 15th 2016 9:33 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
That's nice, Manch. Keep up the optimism that Britain will get all the benefits without any of the burdens. It's gonna hard to come by.

Dick Dasterdly Aug 15th 2016 9:37 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
What I find laughable is that despite a democratic decision having been made by the electorate some folk are complaining they didn't get the result they wanted and want a rerun.

I'm still trying to figure out how they could even begin to present a credible case, in view of the fact that their previous campaign which consisted of 99% lies, fearmongering and fallacies has now been debunked, the predicted Armageddon simply didn't happen, while the Chief instigators of their phoney campaign, Cameron and Osborne are now a piece of history.

They could always call on Batman and Robin I suppose, though looking at the present state of chaos, confusion and desperation within the EU itself, I guess their services could well be required first and foremost in Brussels. :cool:

amideislas Aug 15th 2016 9:45 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
Again, Dick, you're not the only victim of tabloid scaremongering. Lots of people bought it, just like you.

Wol Aug 15th 2016 10:13 pm

re: Post EU Referendum
 
》What I find laughable is that despite a democratic decision having been made by the electorate some folk are complaining they didn't get the result they wanted and want a rerun《

Probably because they have been brought up with the notion that the "wrong" vote can be rerun until it's "right".

Part of the reason that Brexit won in the first place, actually.


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